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Will Gold Retain Value in Diablo 3's Future?

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Market & Economy Discussion Forum' started by Hound, Sep 27, 2013. | Replies: 40 | Views: 15822

  1. Hound

    Hound IncGamers News Service

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    With the news of the Auction House shutting down in March, and lots of previews about what to expect in Loot 2.0, there's been a lot of debate about the future of the Diablo 3 economy. As often happens when economic news breaks, Azzure and I traded a bunch of IMs about the topic, and as usually happens, we found ourselves in disagreement about one of the core issues. Will gold retain value in Diablo 3's future, and especially in the Reaper of Souls expansion pack?

    This article covers the use and value of gold in the future of Diablo 3. I feel that gold will become much less valuable in the future of Diablo 3 than it is now, since without an Auction House and with self finding emphasized, the power/value of millions (or billions) of gold will be much less than it is today. Azzure disagrees and feels that gold will retain much of its use and value in the future, and continue to function as a currency and a commodity.

    In any event, the whole system of existing gold might be gutted by a clean economy ladder system. (In fact I rather expect that's what we'll see.)

    Click through to read our longer form arguments for these positions, weigh your opinion in a vote, and speak up in comments.

    <li><strong>Disclaimer: </strong>Both the pro and con arguments are extrapolations for the future state of the game based on current information mixed with speculation. The developers can (and probably will) make additional changes and tweaks to the game and the economy between now and then, which might invalidate some portions of these arguments. </li>

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    <h3>Gold Will Retain Value in Reaper of Souls</h3>

    <strong>Azzure: </strong>I think gold will probably retain its status as primary currency, despite the removal of the AH.

    <strong>It it is in Blizzard's and every player's interest to keep gold as a currency. </strong>

    Why? Look no further than D2. Without a currency, you cannot effectively trade. So I hear you saying, "so what if it's in our interest, doesn't mean that it's going to happen." This is true, but the fact that it is in everyone's best interest means that Blizzard will likely push hard to keep gold valuable. They will try to make players want it, need it and value it.

    So now you are saying "Ok, so its in our best interest and they are going to try. But what can they do to achieve this?".

    Great question, they can do many things. Firstly, they can design the artisan system in a smarter way that makes it ALWAYS useful. In D3 vanilla, crafting was a failure, nobody really used it because the AH made it obsolete. Guess what, the AH is no longer there! So gold will have a greater use for crafting, and crafting will be somewhat desirable for a longer time (perhaps forever). This will ensure that there is a meaningful gold-sink for gold.

    And don't forget the Mystic! She will have some pretty valuable things she can do, and it all costs gold.

    If inflation gets too high, and the physical quantity of gold gets out of control, Blizz can easily implement a tier-based currency. Eg. 1 Platinum = 10k gold. Like in WoW.

    Now lets look at some case studies of places where gold worked as a currency, and places it did not.

    <strong>World of Warcraft</strong>

    Firstly, WoW has had a gold-based currency for many years, and it is still the primary currency. WoW is similar to D3 ROS in the sense that you can no longer get the best items in the game from an AH, so its a good comparison. Did this fact make gold useless in WoW? Nope.

    The second case study is an example of where gold failed. Yep, you guessed it, D2.
    Why did D2 gold fail? Well, several reasons:
    1) Gold had a very low cap.
    2) You dropped gold when you died, making it lack security.
    3) There was really nothing all that meaningful to spend it on.

    The lack of an AH is not why D2 gold failed. The things above, are. And all of those things have been "fixed" in D3.
    1) Gold has a generous cap that most people will never reach.
    2) Gold is permanent, even in HC deaths!
    3) There are artisans that primarily need gold to use.

    So, looking at the WoW and D2 example, its easy to conclude two things. 1) An AH that facilitates trading of gear is not required to keep gold valuable and as a currency, and 2) Gold failed in D2 because of other non-AH related reasons.

    Coming to my final point, Gold is the best option for a currency for many other reasons. It is easily divisible, it is numerical, it is a COMMODITY, and it has precedence as a currency. In other words, there are no reasons why gold WOULDN'T continue to be a currency post-AH. It is the best option.

    A lot of people will fall for the argument "Gold will suck because look at how much is already in the economy!! Everyone is rich, so no one really wants it, therefore it will fail without the AH."

    Why is this argument a fallacy? Because it fails to grasp what a currency is, and what a commodity is. A currency is a way of standardizing the value of goods in to a unit that is easily transferable. What does that mean? It means that it REPRESENTS real things that people want to buy, and people want to sell. In D3's case, items. So whether there is 20 trillion gold or just 1 million gold in the economy, it is irrelevant. Because gold only REPRESENTS wealth. So if there is more gold, it simply will cost MORE gold to buy it. It doesn't make it any less useful as a currency, unless those 3 things I wrote above come in to play.

    In other words, Gold also doesn't NEED to have a tangible value to be valuable. It is a representation of wealth. HOWEVER, in D3, gold is ALSO a commodity. This means that it actually does have tangible value, it lets you repair your items, craft, use the mystic etc. This makes it even stronger as a currency. But even if gold had virtually no use in D3, it should still be the primary currency (think WoW), and should be used as a means to facilitate trade.

    In closing, the death of the AH doesn't change anything for gold. If people still wish to trade, they should and will, still use Gold as the primary currency.

    <strong>--Azzure</strong>

    <p><code><br/></code></p>

    <hr>

    <p><code><br/></code></p>

    <h3>Gold Will *Not* Retain Much Value in Reaper of Souls</h3>

    <strong>Flux: </strong>Based on the current information, I think gold will lose most of its value in the future of Diablo, and especially in Reaper of Souls. I'm not claiming gold will become useless, D2 style, where players don't even bother to pick it up... though that would probably be the case already for some players, if Pickup Radius didn't do that automatically. But I think the current state of the game, where most players instantly value every item based on a gold value, will be a thing of the distant past come Reaper of Souls.

    I predict this based on the likely impact of new/changing game features, how I think Blizzard wants the economy to evolve, and especially on the (hypothetical) rules of the future ladder system.

    <p><code><br/></code></p>

    <strong>Gold's Value Stems from the Auction House</strong>

    The most basic argument is applicable now, not just in the future. Gold isn't really gold anymore, in terms of being a currency you require for in-game activities like repairs or crafting. The newly-added crafting recipes are fairly pricey, but the bottleneck for most players is finding enough Demonic Essences, not finding the gold or materials. (Especially since the materials can be bought in the AH.)

    I strongly suspect the same will be true of future in-game expenses, like Mystic upgrades. They'll cost gold, but also materials that can not be purchased or traded, thus limiting their uses, even for the very rich.

    Gold is a wonderful thing to have now, but that's because it's spend for gear in the Auction House. If you could find your own gear and all the crafting recipes were limited by finding materials that couldn't be purchased... what would you need gold for? Players on the console now don't put much importance on building up gold since there's nothing to spend it on. There's no Auction House, most players are self found, and when they do trade it's item-for-item, via the barter system.

    <p><code><br/></code></p>

    <strong>Loot 2.0 = Find Items, not Buy Them</strong>

    One of the oft-stated goals of the future of Diablo 3 via Loot 2.0, is that items should be found, not purchased. The devs are trying to bring this about via numerous tools, some of which can be seen previewed in the "Loot 1.5" console version. I don't think the PC version will be quite the "upgrade every run" loot deluge that the console is, but there's clearly a big priority in Loot 2.0 on players finding gear rather than buying it.

    A big part of Diablo is the thrill of battling demons and finding epic loot. While buying epic loot in the auction houses might be more convenient, it doesn’t feel anywhere near as heroic as plowing through a pack of fearsome-looking monsters and having them drop that one awesome item that seems like it was made for your character.[source]http://diablo.incgamers.com/blog/comments/diablo-3-auction-house-closing[/source]


    If there's no Auction House and we're finding most of the gear our characters are wearing... what would you need gold for?

    <p><code><br/></code></p>

    <strong>Limits to Trading</strong>

    The devs have said that most of the top end gear in Reaper of Souls will be bound to the character or account using it. Details aren't finalized yet, but all of the legendary items players found in the Gamescom demo were BoA, and it seems that all Mystic enchants will render the item BoA. We already see that with all of the Archon level crafting recipes in D3C.

    If those "more binding" designs hold through further development, what would players sell in RoS? All the high end newly-found Legendaries would be BoA, or soon become it via an Enchant. All the best crafting recipes will probably still be BoA and/or require materials that are BoA, like Demonic Essences are now. So what does that leave? Trading for mid-level gear, starter gear, and probably for some materials and gems. Gold might be retain value for that, but it's hard to see the shiny yellow metal retaining anything like its current value.

    <p><code><br/></code></p>

    <strong>Ladder Seasons = Tabula Rasa</strong>

    RoS won't be a total blank slate, but it's going to be close to one. Current characters and experience will carry over to the Paragon 2.0 system, but it seems unlikely that any current gear will still be top end gear once items from level 64-70 are dropping.

    Blizzard has confirmed that we'll see ladder seasons in the future of Diablo 3 and I expect we'll get a lot more details about that come Blizzcon 2013. How will those ladder seasons work? No one knows yet, but much of the benefit of ladders in Diablo 2 is that they give the economy a fresh start.

    A fresh start to the economy in Diablo 2 means not bringing over old items. I'd expect the same thing in Diablo 3, but what about the item stash, gold account, and Artisan upgrades that are shared account-wide? Wouldn't those have to be blocked from sharing to new ladder characters, to keep the entire concept of a ladder and a clean economy from being tainted?

    I can't see how ladders would work any other way, and if ladder characters can't bring over gold or gear... then it's a pro and a con to my argument. Gold would be valuable to new ladder characters, who would be equivalent to D3 console characters now, but only for in-game upgrades and repairs. All current gold though, the millions or billions on player accounts... would be nearly worthless, since it could not go into the ladder economy where most players would be focusing their attention.

    It seems like Blizzard wants to reboot much of the economy, post-Auction House, and while I don't think they will go so far as to simply delete player gold, or put limits on how much players can carry over into RoS, or put all prices with a sliding scale that increased costs for richer players... they don't need to. Not when the lure of ladder seasons can render even the largest mountains of D3C gold almost irrelevant.

    <strong>--Flux</strong>

    <p><code><br/></code></p>
    <p style="text-align: center;">[poll id="107"]</p>

    I realize the vote options aren't perfect, since you could vote 1-4 and also think 5 is true. But I couldn't figure a way to integrate all the options in a neat sliding scale, and there's no way to allow votes for 1-4 and/or 5, so let's just see how this one goes.

    There you have the pro and con arguments for the future of gold value in Diablo 3. What do you think is likely to happen? What do you want to happen?
     
  2. Ivan E

    Ivan E IncGamers Member

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    Just a quick note that for self-found players, gold is a higher constraint on crafting than DEs, especially if you are also upgrading your own gems.
     
  3. Gyeon

    Gyeon IncGamers Member

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    Anyone consider the return of Gheed? The wealthy may have an early advantage with deep enough pockets to gamble up some great loot. A fool and their money...
     
  4. Kornkills

    Kornkills IncGamers Member

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    What is stopping you from grinding demons without using the AH? Are you just not good enough at the game to kill things self found? Or are you choosing to use the AH, then get mad when you can\'t afford the life style you want?
     
  5. chosela

    chosela IncGamers Member

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    Everyone should remember how much crafting cost, especially at the higher tiers. Both mats and gold amount are very high, without an AH people won\'t accumulate hundreds of millions even less billions any time soon. So yeah, gold will retain its value and will have value, especially when you will lose your gems in hardcore, then you will know it\'s worth something.
     
  6. Valeli

    Valeli IncGamers Member

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    Re: Will Gold Retain Value in Diablo 3\'s Future?


    Neither. It's option three: I'm using the AH because I don't have the will power to avoid the most convenient method when it blows away the alternatives, even if I don't enjoy it. I actually do enjoy it, somewhat, to be honest. Otherwise I simply wouldn't touch it. The use of the AH certainly produces momentary happiness when I get my "whatever". So I keep using it. It doesn't produce a lasting happiness though, because those little purchase moments are tiny limited fragments of time, and all the other content becomes trivialized and fairly joyless when I have nothing to gain from it and no challenge provide by it because I outgear it.

    A not-bad analogy might be why do some people smoke even when they're well aware it causes lung cancer? The benefits are small, but they're immediate. The potential drawback is extremely large, but it's a long way off, and doesn't even come with a 100% certainty. People are good at going for immediate happiness when it presents itself, at the expense of making the more logical choice. Another analogy - people taking less money in lotteries when they can choose between X-Y dollars immediately, or X dollars delivered over a period of 20+ years.

    Without an AH, every moment spent playing the game has more purpose, and the potential to bring greater rewards.

    As for your two provided options, I think even a nine year old with a bit of patience has enough "skill" to grind down demons, so it's certainly not that option. People being mad at not being able to afford things sounds more probably at first, but that doesn't explain why people like me hate the AH in this game, and are perfectly happy with the presence of an AH in MMOs. Also... RMAH. So most people pretty much could afford whatever they want, actually. So I'm fairly sure it's not your second option either.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2013
  7. jamesL

    jamesL IncGamers Member

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    "Most players just want to slay demons and find good loot"

    emphasis on the word "good"
    that\'s what we all hope to find and I hope it will be better in Loot 2.0

    "Are you just not good enough at the game to kill things self found?"

    you can be great at the game, know all the monsters, their abilities, the best skill/rune combinations and the appropriate monsters to use them against, you can have excellent reflexes, you can have all the timings down
    and still not find good, interesting loot

    there's just nothing interesting about 60 more strength, 15% more chance to crit, 20% more critical damage and 20 more resistance to all

    watch Moldran's videos where he goes on Legendary hunts
    he finds a lot and gets really excited
    I really don't know why
    not a single Legendary he finds is any good for any of his characters
     
  8. Clavdivs

    Clavdivs IncGamers Member

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    The God already proved empirically that the gold cannot be viable currency in D3, before it got out - in a present state at least. Blizzard took 22 months experimenting on mortals to prove divine word true.

    There are other methods for using gold-based economy, but approach 'lets keep random things from d2 and add new ones (also random) and call it a revolutionary' failed. D3 should have been evolutionary, rather.

    Only way to make gold have some value is artificial - overcharging for necessities - other than that, there is none.

    So spoke Clavivs, The God - gold will keep value only proportional to egos in Blizzard.
     
  9. stonerdoom

    stonerdoom IncGamers Member

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    Eventually you will only get 60 more strength, 15% more crit, etc. What in the hell are you talking about. There is a finite limit to what the stats can be and if you have not been keeping up with current events, there is datamined info that there will be even more nerfworthy caps implemented in 2.0/xpac. Be careful what you wish for...
     
  10. stonerdoom

    stonerdoom IncGamers Member

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    They could do themselves a huge favor by:

    -make materials ultranecessary for crafting, morphing, and mysticizing? items. Not just mats equal to the items level. if you are doing something to a leg it should require a decent amount of mats from all skill levels.

    -keep the GAH for buying/selling mats, gems and things of this nature.
     
  11. Charons

    Charons IncGamers Member

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    this is a very curious subject. Obviously, they need to pull all those billions and billions of gold out of the economy IF they wanted to fix it\'s value. Gheed\'s gambling might be a wonderful way to do it. Without the AH, will players care how many billions they have. (or hundreds of millions)

    This comes down to numbers and what they set them at. (obviously) Let\'s do a for instance tho.

    Let\'s say they choose to make items from Gheed cost 100,000 (they could start high and lower later...) Let\'s also say that you have 1 in 1000 odds of finding a legendary via Gheed. (or really good rare) 100 * 100k is 100million. If you had 4billion gold (like I\'ve seen some streamers have) you could hope to find around 40 legendaries or good rares. I kind of think that is a fair trade and it \"could\" pull a lot of the gold out there.

    After they got the game gold back to normal, they could lower prices on Gheed down to D2 levels.

    I think they should get clever and put in some other ways to pull money out. Like come up with a unique costume item like the wings for 1billion gold or something.
     
  12. Charons

    Charons IncGamers Member

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    wrong. you have to have binding to stop the mofo\'s out there that use bots.
     
  13. Charons

    Charons IncGamers Member

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    k i\'ve had a little wine and was a little quick to reply there. You may have a legit argument. But I still think that binding stops the vast majority of bots. Most people use bots to sell items for real money. If a bot was to find an item that was BOA, it can\'t sell it. Thus, most botters would give up. (except the ones that want to sell gold)

    I still think BOA is super important as part of the fix to stop the bullshit.
     
  14. bonkers

    bonkers IncGamers Member

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    I agree more with Azzure than Flux on this one. Although I see bartering to become more common in D3 after the AH, gold will still be the base to compare item value much like runes, chipped gems, and perfect gems were/are in D2.
     
  15. Apendecto

    Apendecto IncGamers Member

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    First thing I thought when I read this.

    Second: Wasn\'t BOA to prevent AH sales? What would equipment binding stop now? 3rd party sites? How many people are going to use those compared to the AH?
     
  16. jamesL

    jamesL IncGamers Member

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    \"Eventually you will only get 60 more strength, 15% more crit, etc....There is a finite limit to what the stats can be \"

    and that is exactly why the items are not interesting

    http://classic.battle.net/diablo2exp/items/exceptional/ushields.shtml

    can you imagine how awesome a Tiamat\'s Rebuke or a Stormchaser or a Radament\'s Sphere would be ?
     
  17. Highborne

    Highborne IncGamers Member

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    You assume too many things, such as BoA still existing. The AH was the sole reason to have bind on anything in the game. Without the AH if they keep the BoA trash then they may as well just not release the expansion.

    As for gold being worthwhile, maybe if they add in a gambler, but if they don\'t then it will become worthless.

    D2 gold was worth something, gambling, sadly because people who run diablo websites never played D2 for more than a few days, they wouldn\'t understand why everything in Diablo 2 had value.
     
  18. Kornkills

    Kornkills IncGamers Member

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    @ JAMES TY FOR NAMING SHIELDS I NEVER SEEN ANYONE USE.
     
  19. Flux

    Flux Administrator

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    This certainly *could* happen which is why Azzure and my opinions are speculation; since game features aren\'t known yet.

    My impression is that Bliz wants to reset the economy, changing from a \"gold = success\" to a self found sort of model. And in that light I think existing gold will be devalued by the new systems, hence crafting and such will require a Demonic Essence type material that bottlenecks the use.

    But it\'s entirely possible that will mostly be the case, yet there may still be one or two features that allow lots of gold to have some utility? Just not anywhere near the current game state where gold quantity is all that really matters.
     
  20. Nizaris

    Nizaris Clan Officer - US West Hardcore

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    Re: Will Gold Retain Value in Diablo 3\'s Future?

    Personally, I do not think gold will retain its value. I was having this discussion with a few of my friends yesterday. This is especially true if they are not going to introduce a ladder. As of right now, I also believe they will not be introducing a ladder because the character slot limit is only increased to 12.

    I think they will promote the self-found side of the game that has since been absent with the previous economic model. I would speculate that high level crafts, enchants, and similar enhancements will require account-bound materials that are exceedingly rare. Since there is no Auction House, gold costs will remain manageable even by the newer players.

    This reflects Diablo 2 much more and I personally like it better.
     

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