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Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Market & Economy Discussion Forum' started by Magisk, May 3, 2012. | Replies: 24 | Views: 2601

  1. Magisk

    Magisk IncGamers Member

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    Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    First post, decided to make it count :)

    When I first heard about the RMAH I was thrilled! There is something about having a real economy within a game that really appeals to me, it creates all these possibilities and if done correctly "a game within a game"

    Before I move on I need to say for reference that im a professional poker player and an exDiablo2 player, so I feel like when these two things in a way come together I should have some idea of whats going on. You might say poker doesn't have anything to do with the RMAH in Diablo, but it does. Its a game about money, where your decision is based on "is this profitable or not" and now when Diablo has the real cash thing as well, the same thing applies there. Some people wont take it that seriously but enough people will so that it will affect your gameplay regardless, and unfortunately in a mostly negative way.

    So the main problem we all have been focusing on is how will the economy behave and will item prices decrease a lot or remain at an acceptable level.

    There are some arguments for it working such as:

    -There are a lot of cash sinks, taking gold out of the economy
    -The best items drop very rarely, making the demand always higher than the supply

    However, to me its evident those things wont matter as the arguments against are:

    -There will be way more people willing to sell rather than buy, maybe not the first month but as time goes definitively. Like, even though its a great game the interest will fade, thats just how it is. This brings me to my next point.

    -After a while way more people will stop playing compared to new players joining, and all those will (even if they are just taking a long break) be given this option: "Ill sell all my gear now, bc if I decide to start playing again I can buy it back for less money". Imagine what this would do the D3 economy in 1-2 years when like 1-2million players have left or something..

    Now lets talk about the consequences and the solutions.

    Consequences:


    -Item value will drop, making the game lose a lot of enjoyment! It wont feel good playing after a while knowing you could just improve your gear a lot for 5-10usd. It will just feel like wasting time as now the item that was so hard to get in D2 is now obtainable for a few button presses + 1cheesburger.

    Blizzard Solution:

    -Blizzard has to release new gear via expansions that's better and at the same time increase difficulty. This will boost the economy, however those who bought gear previously and those who have made a solid effort obtaining gear will not feel great about this. Especially considering it would have to be done sort of frequently..

    What Blizzard should have done:

    They should have made a "marketplace" not an "auction house". This marketplace could be placed ingame in one of the towns and consist of two areas;

    1. Tradehouse

    -In this area of the marketplace people could safely post trades and visit some UI that made it possible to search for the following: "I have x item, what are people willing to trade towards it" Then they would get a list from the best to worst items of people who have put up a trade with the following " I have x item and I want x item for it"

    Edit:
    -to list a trade, the item would have to be locked in the UI until cancelled.
    To complete a trade the other player has to place his item in the UI as well and click "propose trade" (only possible to place the item requested), Then the original lister can view the stats and he click "confirm trade" or "refuse" should the stats not be good enough.

    -In order to decrease the number of players who propose bad trades there could be a gold fee

    2. Goldhouse

    This could be the location in the marketplace where you could sell/buy items for gold with players, similar to how the auction house currently works, however with a big difference.

    The gold earned could be exchanged for an amount of real money if the player wanted to, BUT should a player want to purchase gold instead it would be at a higher cost set by Blizzard. This would actually make the game better and more enjoyable as the economy would actually be functioning and maintain a higher value.

    Edit:
    (the sell value of the gold could be calculated out from the cash amount players have bought gold for in the last 3months, or something similar)

    In the end its this simple: Blizzard has to make it near impossible to obtain the best items without players either putting in a solid effort, doing great trades or spending a lot of money. If these alternatives are uneven, then the game falls apart! sadface
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2012
  2. Greystone

    Greystone IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    The prices of items on the rmah are going to be dictated by how many items drop and the quality of those drops. Smart auctioners are going to control the cost of items on the market. It's bound to happen. If a specific piece of gear has a 1% drop rate and X stats there's no reason to sell it for 1 dollar, or 5 dollars, or even 10 bucks. You have to factor in the drop chance with the time you would have to invest to farm that specific item. I don't know about anyone else, but if an item is really good and it could potentially take you 10/20/30 or even more hours of straight farming to acquire it I am sure as hell not going to sell it for 5 bucks and if I see anyone dumb enough to list the item for so little I'll buy it and re-sell it. Most typical gear won't be worth much, but hell and especially inferno level gear will be worth some money. Most people are probably never even going to play inferno...People will be willing to pay more than 5-10 bucks for a very rare high level item and the people that list these items are doing themselves and everyone else that has to work to acquire that gear a huge disservice by listing it for too little money. These are all virtual items, but the cash is real. If it took me 10 hours of farm to get a baller drop you ain't going to buy it for 10 bucks. That's a buck an hour for my time, but even less after the auction/transfer fees. Not gonna happen. But, we'll see.
     
  3. Axamas

    Axamas IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    How many people are going to price items considering the time they spent farming and is it enough to dictate items' price in the AH ?
    I don't think so.
    Remembering how market worked in WOW, there was a limit to prices and never, NEVER, it was a "fair" retribution of farming time.
    (unless you were a chinese/bot farmer, with an income of maybe 1 or 2 € per day !!)

    IMHO, the only way to make money in consideration with the time spent, is buying/selling on the market (not farming).

    Answers the 15th of may + 1 week :)
     
  4. Eagle

    Eagle IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    trolololol


     
  5. Magisk

    Magisk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    Think you misunderstood, read it again..

    this system still allows for people to sell and buy gold, however Blizzard has to interfeer and push the gold price up! If not it would become so cheap it would not make the game enjoyable anymore and Within short time the situation will so bad that playing in order to improve your character will seem pointless.

    If you disagree your free to explain why

    Edit:
    I changed that part, was pointless to include that it would be more profitable for Blizzard as I see how it can confuse certain people like yourself.


     
  6. Magisk

    Magisk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    This is actually not true, as it will only be the case the first months.

    Actually what will happen is that the aucion house, will flood with items just about when a huge percentage of the player base will lose interest/play less and then the inflasion will set in. making 99% of all the items worthless while perhaps a couple 30-50usd ish at the most.

    Then Blizzard will announc they are working on an expansion and the prices will fall even more as soon the "best" items wont be best anymore, and the game is officially ruined for all the loyal fans, while the 12y kids will enjoy it

    Edit:

    To make a better example maybe, the amount of hours you would have to play compared to what it would cost to just buy gold/items would be so uneven it would be near pointless to play

    Edit2:

    Another thing to consider is that the amount of players who will leave within the frst 1-2years will be huge! not because its a bad game, but just because thats how it is, people get bored.. And almost EVERYONE of those will sell their items because even if they are gonna play later on they can just buy them pack for what is almost certainly a lower price.

    So lets say 7million buy the game, I would guess atleast 20% of those are not playing the game in 1years time. (Im sure there is some data of other games that could give us a better idea) But yeah, Just imagine the amount of items that would hit the AH..


     
    Last edited: May 3, 2012
  7. Eagle

    Eagle IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    Aww, you're serious. Now I'm a sad panda.
     
  8. Magisk

    Magisk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    So please explain how the current system would benefit players more?

    With my suggestion you would be able to straight up trade
    you would be able to sell/buy items
    you would be able to sell/buy gold

    All this while keeping the value of the items way higher than the current system will...


     
  9. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    The RMAH will be just fine and serve the purpose it is designed for over time. It is the GREED of the individuals looking to make money that see it as a failure.

    Quite simply, this is a game FIRST, to be played for fun. I care less about the ability for RM transactions.

    The real money value of items is irrelevant to the game entirely and its longevity. It is a secondary function. Approaching D3 in the fashion that you are going to make money at it is a complete fail.

    On the other hand realizing that there is some inherent RM value to items is reasonable. But since they are virtual goods the value is limited to the entertainment value intrinsically. As many have pointed out, a tricked out gear set is easily worth the cost of going to a movie or two.

    So if there is a market early on that gives you the ability to make some pocket change (read this as a few thousand dollars) then be happy about it. But it is not going to pay the mortgage, hell it won't even get you drunk consistently.
     
  10. Magisk

    Magisk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    Lol man, you say: "The real money value of items is irrelevant to the game entirely and its longevity"

    that is completely fals and you are not really thinking about this.. We know 100% certain already that the D3 market will be very cheap after the first year, which creates a situation that makes the game broken! You must agree that for those who have mostly completed the game continuing using countless hours farming for items that has almost no value would not be appealing.

    you can literately buy everything but the very best items for pocket change!

    You also write "market early on that gives you the ability to make some pocket change (read this as a few thousand dollars)"

    Are you seriously saying that any player in the early stages can make a few thousand dollars? This clearly shows that you do not really understand how this will work.

    You will have like 5mill players constantly picking up loot, more than 90% of that loot will be items they do not need/want. A lot of those items will hit the auction house creating a price so low its laughable and most people will be able to make maybe 50 usd a month in the beggining, if they sell every good item they pick up!

    And this is the early stages when the prices are relatively high compared to later on.. Imagine when 1-2million players get bored and move on to other games (we know this will happen). Then they will sell their gear, obviously.. Why leave it in the account when the player can just buy it back later for less cash should he decide to play again.. Lets say those 2mill players have 10 items each.. Thats 20mill items..

    And not to mention all those people who value their time way less than you do. The hourly rate at which you would make money in Diablo would be less than 0.5 cents an hour. And that's being optimistic.


     
  11. ShadoutMapes

    ShadoutMapes IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    This will happen yes, but why do you assume Blizzard want it fixed, or sees it as a problem. They designed the RMAH and surely knows what will happen.
    They just don't care.

    This will hurt the game longevity for some people, but the majority claim it wont affect them. The majority wont be playing Diablo III 1 year from now anyway. In any case Blizzard will already have got their money though.


     
  12. Lokiftw

    Lokiftw IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    It seems logical to assume they will constantly tune the game, in real time, so it maintains maximized AH volume for their (assumed) target users: farmers of all kinds, and the the majority of the modest % of the actual player base than infuse money into the game (whats avail to tax) via 5-25$ transactions, or whatever these ranges actually are.

    The juice is in the transaction fees, right:....more transaction fees/time = higher rate ....and by targeting the highest volume areas = larger number of transactions occuring at a high (epic) rate.

    The rmah might fail for alot of us (pipedreams)..but it wont for blizzard.

    The game is going to be fun to play. The endgame (inferno) and pvp will be modern blizzard all the way and drive on for years.

    I doubt many wil quit b/c they realize they can't make x$ per hour, or b/c inferno is too hard, because at the end of the day;
    its diablo 3
    you don't have to spend any money to keep playing,
    and there is always the chance you could find a valuable item by playing.
     
  13. Magisk

    Magisk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    Good points.

    If the majority doesnt play Diablo in 1year, then approx 2-3mill players have left and atleast 30mill items have hit the AH, just from the gear those who leave will then sell. If counting in what they have contributed into the "item economy" I would guess 100mill items at least..

    =In about a year almost all items wll be worthless

    As I see it only way for Blizzard to maintain the economy would be to release new items/expansions and at the same time increase difficulty along with the new items (because the items has to be better than the ones that are currently best) For the players this will obv suck a little, however I can see it work somewhat.

    But anyways, in 1-2years the AH will get bombed, and there will be a ton of very mad players feeling like their game is broken/worthless

    In Diablo2 it felt great finding items that were kinda hard to come buy, in Diablo3 u can buy those items for 1-2 usd (optimistic guess)
     
  14. galzohar

    galzohar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    I highly doubt all quitters will have top-end items. Most likely the distribution of items among quitters will not be very different than the item distribution among non-quitters. Quitters may have an effect on item prices making them a bit cheaper, but I doubt that effect will be gigantic. As long as there is still progression to be made and better (closer to perfect and/or higher inferno tier) items to be found, those items will still have a major value, and most won't ever actually get them as drops.
     
  15. Svetopolk

    Svetopolk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    Sorry, I don't get this.
     
  16. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    Magisk, you have no clue about what will happen.

    You do realize that there are 2 (and ONLY 2) posible ways for RMAH :
    1.Will last 12-18 months without any problem.
    2.Will crash in before 12-18 months (due to various reasons).

    Regardless of which of the above...Blizzard will just need to make a patch or expansion in 2 months or 6 months or 12 months or 18 months just to restart the RMAH again.

    If you believe that they, Blizzard, don't have ALREADY prepared 2-4 major patches and at least 1 expansion...you don't know much about them.

    You think that they will just RMAH roll, see what happends, and decide what to do ? They ALREADY know what could happen, they have the solutions for every possible situation (not a big deal to know what can happend) and will fix w/e can be wrong.

    Not only for RMAH, but for everything in game.

    They are GODS.They can fix ANYTHING.

    If they won't, than they will lose MONEY.I hardly think losing money it's Blizzard's plan for 2012.
     
  17. Magisk

    Magisk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    Ive written 3 times in this thread that Blizzard to fix this problem will release expansions/new gear. And how this will go down is like this:

    1. Items will begin to lose value at a rate which will reduce the enjoyment of actually trying to get items yourself.
    2. This happens around the same time as a lot of people stop playing Diablo, which will release from 20 to 100 million items ON TOP of the normal AH traffic.
    3. Blizzard will address this issue letting people know their plans with new expansion etc, which will "revive" the game, however momentarily send the item value down even further.
    4. Blizzard releases the expansion and the game is fun again, for a few months.

    I think people don't realize that when an economy is brought into a game it does put a value on the time invested into it, should the economy crash the enjoyment will be drastically reduced. Thats just how it is..

    Explained above, when there is an ecomny brought into a game it puts an value on time invested. If the value of item falls drastically low it removes any playability after you've completed the game.

    This is a very good point, ive spent some time thinking over this myself.

    Normally the point where most people stop playing will be around were the peek of players complete it, but as we know its made extremely difficult to do so, perhaps bc Blizzard looked into how the economy would evolve and saw it needs to be dragged out for a looong time.

    This would most certainly keep the value on the best items out of the first "AH inflation", but I think the same faith will happen to those as well, later on.

    I think everything will work as it should the first year, but from there I cant see the economy sustain itself and for myself and many others a lot of the fun will be gone. Hope im wrong tho :)


     
    Last edited: May 4, 2012
  18. ShadoutMapes

    ShadoutMapes IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    Well, if the economy crash then there isn't an economy in the game anymore, and no "value on time". Sounds like it would be good if the economy crashed then.
     
  19. Magisk

    Magisk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    There would still be an economy, but one where you could buy 99% of all items for basically nothing

    And no that would not be good at all, since a lot of the playability focuses around getting items..


     
  20. ShadoutMapes

    ShadoutMapes IncGamers Member

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    Re: Why the RMAH will fail and how to fix it!

    I dont really see much difference between buying 99% of all items for basically nothing or buying 99% of all items for a bit more than nothing.
    Both are terrible.
    At least if RMAH crash, maybe sellers will stop bothering with it, and Blizzard will figure out it was a bad idea and not use it in future games. Would be the best outcome we could get I guess.
     

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