Latest Diablo 3 News
DiabloWiki Updates
Support the site! Become a Diablo: IncGamers PAL - Remove ads and more!

Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses)?

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 General Discussion' started by Andy2702, May 4, 2012. | Replies: 24 | Views: 1941

  1. Andy2702

    Andy2702 IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2004
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    348
    Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses)?

    (Brace yourselves, INB4 prediction/assumption/opinion coming up)

    My internet is shutting off every 5 minutes so I'll try not to ramble like I usually do.

    Basically, everyone knows what happened to the D2 economy. It was the best and worst thing to ever happen to the game. Too many illegitimate items, everyone had the same items after a couple of weeks, so on so forth. After a month or two, people went crazy magic finding and economics theory simply says oversupply = cheaper goods.

    I'm interested in D3's economy now with the separated loot system. Separate loots = potentially 4x the number of items generated (four separate batches created for each player in a 4 player game, "worst case scenario"). Back in D2, shared loot = 1/8x the number of loot generated (one fixed batch created split amongst 8 people in a 8 player game, "worst case scenario"). Of course not every game is going to have those number of players, hence "worst case scenario", but still... Won't this cause a ton of items (possibly 4 times the amount) to be generated, thus skyrocketing supply within a week or two, resulting in worthless auction items, especially with the transaction fees in the RMAH? Soon enough we'll be PAYING Blizzard commission to sell items :jig:(I'm kidding, I know about the 15%). If D2's oversupply of items was bad enough, are we going to see something 4x as bad (ignore the math, focus on the concepts :crazyeyes:.)


    Has this "issue" been addressed? I realize one of the solutions already implemented is the removal of pure MFing builds/game focus, but then again, the genre/goals of the game forces us to MF, so everyone will be doing some sort of MFing come late game. Also, crafting will serve as an item/gold dump, but is this enough? Anyone have a theory or prediction ?


    (I'll wait until a month after release and come back here to necro this thread if what I mentioned really does happen)
  2. nZifnab

    nZifnab IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2011
    Messages:
    46
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    20
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Hrm... When you added more players in D2 didn't it increase the quantity of items dropped? I think an 8-player game would just have 8x the loot drop, even if *everyone* can see it. In D3 each person gets 1x the loot drops, so really it's the same amount of loot per payer, just distributed more fairly. Am I wrong?
  3. Andy2702

    Andy2702 IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2004
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    348
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Perhaps for normal monsters, but I don't recall Baal dropping 32 items upon death.



  4. Darkmere

    Darkmere IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2010
    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    I still expect the vast majority of loot dropped for everyone to be cracked sashes. In D2 I had a giant silo of cracked sashes and swam around in them.
  5. Karpalo

    Karpalo IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2011
    Messages:
    909
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    120
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    High tier item prices actually went up in price in D2 before duping and botting got out of hand. Demand was still higher than the whole player base could deliver. I expect it will be same in D3. Couple months in you can get ok gear for free, but when it comes to high end inferno items it's post apocalyptic wasteland and every man for themselves.
  6. Mithan

    Mithan IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    42
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    6
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Well one thing to keep in mind is we don't know the drop rate for the good stuff. It could be super low in order to combat this. Hard to say.
  7. Coolhwip

    Coolhwip IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2011
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    42
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Item supply will actually decrease compared to D2 because of the hard 10 character limit per cd-key, no widely available duping methods, crude bots and not being able to run multiple copies of the game at once.

    In D2 you could have an unlimited number of accounts per cd-key and you could run 8 copies of the game at the same time. Remember the thousands of stolen cd-keys that were leaked all over the internet? I regularly used about a dozen set of keys from that list myself. A botter would have at least 2 or 3 accounts full of botting characters all running at once churning out far more items per hour that anyone in D3 will ever be capable of.
  8. Tryzx

    Tryzx IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2011
    Messages:
    320
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    122
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    The real problem here is: will there be botting?
    If yes, then the economy might suffer. Otherwise, I think that end game items will still be pretty rare even with separate drops from bosses.
  9. Piousflea

    Piousflea IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    The true high-end item supply will be MUCH lower in D3 for several reasons:

    1) No botting/duping/multiboxing.

    2) Uniques/Sets having extra random affixes. In d2, the randomness of a high end item was limited to a few extra percent on various affxies. In D3 you can roll a completely different affix. There will be a huge difference betewen a plain old Windforce Bow, and a Windforce Bow with +Critical Damage Bonus, +Life Leech, and +Multishot.

    3) Inferno difficulty. With the exception of Annihilus and Torch, every item in D2 could be obtained in Hell difficulty which is easy even with mediocre gear, and a complete pushover with good gear. On the other hand, D3 has Inferno-only items, and unless Blizzard is completely lying, Inferno will remain difficult for a very long time.

    The fact is that there really weren't TOO many highly desirable items in D2. A lot of builds used the same uniques, sets, or runewords. Crafted rares were the only truly random thing in the game (and the high end Runewords and Uniques generally eclipsed them). On the other hand, endgame D3 will have enough randomness to allow people to discover new and better items for a very long time.
  10. Bad Ash

    Bad Ash IncGamers Site Pal

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2003
    Messages:
    5,800
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    582
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    What worries me is if blizz gets too greedy and dips their hand in the cookie jar and just raises drop rates compared to D2 to get more RMAH traffic. If the drop rates are what they were for Diablo 2...we should be ok. If you take out duping, there would be almost no high end rune words at all and they would be redonkulously high.

    Since blizz gets a 15% fee, you'd think they would want the drop rate to be LOWER? Making demand sky rocket making prices sky rocket, meaning they get a bigger chunk? do they want $7.50 from a $50 item? Or do they want those high end items selling like hotcakes and take many more 15% cuts from lower dollar amounts?



  11. Andy2702

    Andy2702 IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2004
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    348
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Part of me kind of wishes they didn't do that to legendary items. It takes the whole "randomness" thing over the top a bit. Legendary itms are legendary because they have fixed abilities with varying stats.



  12. nailertn

    nailertn IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2011
    Messages:
    235
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    42
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    I am not sure increasing drop rates does anything to commerce. Demand is more or less fixed, your character has one head and two arms to equip with items, hopefully Blizzard will not tweak those kind of numbers. If you decide you need a nice sword you are going to buy the best one you can afford, increased supply won't make you buy two. (Of course increasing drop rates can speed up market saturation but past the first few weeks I don't see it changing much.)



    I think the biggest issue here is no ladder resets due to the RMAH. Players need to be rewarded regularly to keep on playing but the standard of items in use will increase dramatically over time.

    A good comparison is going for a grail. At first you find new pieces quite often, frequent rewards, easy to enjoy. But as you get more and more of the missing pieces the bar for what you consider rewarding raises fast. The interval between rewarding finds grows and after a while all that drops is "junk", stuff you already have. Going for grail is not hard when you have nothing, it is hard when Tyrael's Might is the only piece missing.

    How big an interval one considers tolerable between good drops before the game becomes a chore - hours, days, weeks, months - changes from person to person, but everbody has that threshold. And without ladder resets, unless you isolate yourself from the online economy, the game will hit that point eventually.

    (In D2 duping and botting accelerated this process but ladder resets mitigated their effect. High runes also helped somewhat, finding one of those did not make the next one any less rewarding. While I am sure botting won't be nearly as rampant in D3, I am equally certain that it can't be stopped. As long as it takes manual labour to review each case botters will always have the upper hand.)


  13. mozella

    mozella IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2012
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    your probably right with the amount of trash items gunna be flooding the ah as soon as it launches
    every one ans his gramdpa will be listing everything they find in an effort to try to earn some money
    personaly ill just start listing when i reach nightmare as those items will be worth a little more than
    the rubbish from the frist few acts, as for the fees system i think blizz have completely missed the mark
    the system and fees will only encourage people to go else where to buy/sell their stuff, i did a quick serch
    on google and there is already an ebay style site for diablo 3 google>diablo 3 bay and im quite tempted to
    use them rarther than the excessive fees in game, its a shame realy the implimentation of such a system
    had the potentiol to be one of the most groubd breaking events in gaming history but personaly i think
    they have made an *** of this one
  14. jwfcp

    jwfcp IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2003
    Messages:
    151
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    26
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    as a buyer, why would you care about fees? as a seller, ebay is no better these days.
  15. RazeBarb

    RazeBarb IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2011
    Messages:
    1,222
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    If beta droprates are any indicator, we'll get flooded with (utterly worthless) blues but yellows are going to be as rare as goldens were in D2.
    Oranges (lol) will probably be so rare, you'll instantly call your friends to tell them you've found one.
  16. jokewood

    jokewood IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2012
    Messages:
    11
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Something tells me the farming in A1 normal is slightly different end-game farming. Call it a hunch.


  17. chriscowart

    chriscowart IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2005
    Messages:
    198
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    41
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    I know the beta isn't a good indicator of end-game drops, but I leveled 3 characters to level 13 and didn't find a single rare or ring (outside of first Skeleton King runs). On the auction house, rings were fairly common, and I picked up some really nice ones on the cheap.

    As some Blizzard rep stated (I don't remember who... could've been Jay even), gold may be the most important drop in the game this time around. I believe that given the relative scarcity of rings in the beta and what kind of ring I could buy on the auction house.

    So, I'd wager they've totally accounted for quadruple drops even so much that they've built a business model around that concept.
  18. Darkmere

    Darkmere IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2010
    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    There was a vendor just outside town that sold rings. You bought what others bought from him and re-posted, more than likely.

    Also... I played D2 to blood raven and didn't find any set items, they must not exist.
  19. chriscowart

    chriscowart IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2005
    Messages:
    198
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    41
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Wow, really? The first vendor's items looked meh, so I didn't even bother to check the other one :(

    I believe D3 beta lasted quite a bit longer than killing Blood Raven. My initial run was 2 hours to the Skeleton King, and subsequent runs 45 mins to an hour. I don't think it took me 20 minutes the very first time I played D2 to kill Blood Raven. At any rate, I've found my fair share of Hsarus' Iron Stays and Arctic Horns in the very, very early parts of Act I.



  20. Darkmere

    Darkmere IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2010
    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Yeah that was a bit of jaded hyperbole. I meant, I'm pretty sure the loot picks up after act I. I thought I remembered reading a blue post that champions/subbosses were guaranteed to drop one rare after A1 normal, but I have no idea where the post was.

Share This Page