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Release week market strategy

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Market & Economy Discussion Forum' started by cozmiccc, Apr 21, 2012. | Replies: 45 | Views: 4316

  1. cozmiccc

    cozmiccc IncGamers Member

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    Release week market strategy

    We have less than 4 weeks to release and seem that not many discussion is going on for what's their strategy on capturing the early market rush. What's happening people? or perhaps you all have the 'secret' strategy that you don't want to share? :whistling:

    Anyway I have been thinking on the best way to make bucks for the early period as it'll be surely different after the market has matured. My first obvious thought is that on an evergreen currency market sans-inflation, gold prices will be the highest ever and likely will never reach this point again. So the first strategy is to save all the gold you get, not necessarily farming out of your way, but just keep all the gold as you level and sell it in RMAH, no stash upgrading, no blacksmith/jewelcrafting training, no buying vendor ring, just the necessary repair. Do this for a week or two, then when the gold rate has dropped significantly re-buy them again for less than half the price to catch-up with your artisan level. :thumbsup:

    But now my thought is that the above might not be a viable strategy. Diablo 3 will be released on a Tuesday and what kind of people going to buy Diablo 3 right at launch? My bet the majority will be the hardcore followers and gamers and this demographic is not exactly the perfect target market as they're likely to have time and farming commitment than the casual market who is willing to drop some cash. Not only that but RMAH will be a big novelty item, I predict people will be dying to try to make even a few bucks from the game, not for serious cash but more for giggles and curiosity "oh, look I just made $3 from some sucker!" That surely doesn't bode well for serious sellers or determining the equilibrium prices.

    So, perhaps a better strategy is to hold off selling gold right away? Instead funnel all the gold to blacksmith upgrade or even snapping up the rare high level plan if it's reasonably priced. It's likely that players started to encounter difficulty around late nightmare and early hell, by that time you can be positioned in the market to sell the higher-end rares for good money. Alternatively if you think everyone going to race levelling up their blacksmith anyway, then perhaps focus more on Jewelcrafter? We know the insane 14-tier gems and it'll surely be in demand all the time as the artisan can remove/insert gems to gears without limit, so it makes sense for players to always upgrade their gems when they reach that difficult mark in the game. Investing in higher level gems crafting might yield a good return.

    What do you guys think? and what will be your main strategy come release day? :scratchchin:
  2. Lacks

    Lacks IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    My goal will be to hit the end game first and worry about cornering the market later. Finding a good group of players will be critical.
  3. The Lord of Darkness

    The Lord of Darkness IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    My strategy will be to sit back and wait for a few weeks to let the dust settle. Then go from there.
  4. cozmiccc

    cozmiccc IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    But the gold rush and biggest yield would potentially be in this early weeks where the market price is not set and there's many opportunity to make profit from chaotic market :p


  5. Pheal

    Pheal IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    The reason people aren't posting right now is that the game isn't released yet and these "secret strategies" don't exist (they do, but it's utter bs). These people think that the D3 economy will work like in WoW. This will not be the case at all. You can't corner a free market of million of players (you can try, but say bye to your wallet). You can't really shuffle items much (you can, but to an extent and the 15% / 1.25$ kills it). You can't snipe commodities and items are too random to be able to give them the appropriate value without following the law of supply and demand (and you cant snipe them either since there is a max bid amount implemented), which will only happen when the game is released and people know what they want. And you cant farm specific items since all drops are random (unlike mmorpgs). What you could do is do some crafting and sell the good stuff, but the materials required will cost you more than you will make selling the item. Unless you undersell from your total costs of production and don't mind the loss, but then again you're not making any money there. It's about time people start to see through this. Most high end stuff require plans and they need to drop first for them to be available. What you can do is cross your fingers to have good drops and optimize the farming or random stuff (minimal downtime possible). That's about it until we get the big picture of how the market develops.


  6. stonerdoom

    stonerdoom IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    ^I agree. However, I have negative zero business sense (see i just made up that number- not good). I think I will just throw some stuff at the AHs and see what sticks. Here is my first serious AH "playing" from today...

    While sitting around getting various error messages, I was able to get on the AH and thought I would see what SE was doing. My last batch of chars was wiped with patch 17 or 18 so I was starting over and wanted a chance to craft so I could keep up with all the noobs coming in for open beta. So I saw that the price was was sub-100 so i started buying in 10-20 chunks. Sitting there a few more moments the price started climbing towards 120-140, so threw mine up (what I just bought plus what I already had in my stash). Well, in literally 5-10 minutes I profited 5000 gp, nearly doubling my money before battle.net crashed otherwise I would have kept going. No lie.

    What does this mean for the RMAH or opening week? I have no idea. But the AH will certainly be a game within the game. Playing commodities seems like it will be a lot of fun and for the savvy folks out there I think, yes, they will make a little coin from it. i dont have the brains or the ambition to be a D3 millionaire but i think I can sustain my chars with high end stuff playing the AHs.

    I mean shoot, we'll play the game a lot anyway. Toss some stuff out there. People like Azzure will keep tabs on the commodities and there will be lots of public data available so that you can see how you should make your plays.

    To the OP, I too am on the fence of whether to sell gold as I get it the first week or invest in my artisan. We'll just have to see. Lets be serious, if you jump on and see that gold is going for $5/1000 well I will have a IV with monster energy drink in it and we will go baby go. In the beta with 30-40% gold find I was easily getting several thousand gold in less than an hour. Lacks has it right though. you need a good group to stick together and SWEEP AND CLEAR!
  7. Pheal

    Pheal IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    @stonerdoom These kind of plays will be possible as there will be lots of market movements at the beggining and the price will not settle down yet. Someone could make a profit from it if they can sell at least 15% higher than they bought. There will be a lot of people doing that tho so make sure you have proper data backing up your purchases else you will end up losing money. Remember that in beta the money isn't real, and want it or not, this affects people purchase behavior.
  8. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    @stonerdoom

    "Lets be serious, if you jump on and see that gold is going for $5/1000 well I will have a IV with monster energy drink in it and we will go baby go"

    I lol'd if anything like that happens even a $1 per thousand, I fear for my health as the farming won't stop until the markets drops or stop buying out my gold.

    It would be so exciting to see: Last 10 trades - $1 per 1000 /take screenshot

    I just hope enough "casual players" purchase and start playing on day 1.
    We farmers/market players need a market base of hundreads of thousands, dare I say even millions of casual players to keep the market moving, there are our customers.
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2012
  9. Such Violent Storms

    Such Violent Storms IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    As people reach end-game, they will need things. They will need things to not die, and the easiest way of getting things is through gold. So selling gold would be quite effective at generating real money.

    Otherwise, your best bet if you're soley concentrated on taking advantage of the market is to ensure your first character gets to 60 as fast as possible, right before inferno. Keep magic find items and basically make your first character the item finder. Don't bother going on with inferno, but instead farm around Hell.

    Like others said, a good team is vital speed- and efficiency-wise. Try to get 2-3 friends to play with you a lot.
  10. galzohar

    galzohar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    Remember that the main reason people get on the beta AH is because they finished the game in 1-2 hours and are now bored. If they could keep going, I'm sure they would and only bother to look at the AH when their gameplay actually started slowing down. As long as you are progressing fast, you won't bother looking to buy (or sell) stuff, especially if you're a casual.

    That's why I think there will be very little money to be made on the AH and RMAH during the first week, at least by taking advantage of casual players. They'll take a while before they even think about trying to figure out the AH interface. Even the most casuals should have an easy time to at least get through normal, and being casual, of course it'll take them time to do that.

    Making 5000 gold in 5-10 minutes is really not all that great, especially when you think what kind of gold you might be making by playing 5-10 minutes in nighmare/hell/inferno.

    To sum it up, my early games strategy would be to level up as fast as possible, ignoring the AH. Especially since I'm not going to put down any real money in order to try and make money, so until I get high enough to when I can actually find stuff (or enough gold) to warrant any significant amount of $ I really have nothing to look for on the RMAH.

    IMO, those who think they can play the AH on the first days are either delusional, or will simply make a few pennies while I level to 60 and start getting drops that are worth more than a few pennies.
  11. jwfcp

    jwfcp IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    I figure everyone will start out with the basic "play one char, dont buy anything, sell everything you dont need and push content as far as you can". Remember the blacksmith is divided into tiers and the normal mode recipes are very reasonable, I expect for most people to dabble in the low end stuff on their own even if they have no intentions of going all the way with it. So I dont think the market will come into its own until nightmare or so, as people get that difficulty level transitional chill and take their pile of money to market to shore up their weak spot (or whatever other specialized bottleneck the game throws at us: eg the fire/light resistance needed to handle diablo in d2, trying to get past duriel solo etc)

    Just be sure to put a buyout on your sale, so they can have it right when they want it and make that impulse buy, instead of leaving them the hope that theyll find it on their own, or worse the bid winding down draws them to realize that their current need wont matter in a day or two.
  12. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    this, and you can't progress very far/fast if you're selling everything.


  13. AKUder

    AKUder IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    I think I'm just as much at risk to make stupid sales early on as I am to capitalize. For me, I'll be waiting for stabilizing, while I may miss out on some early opportunities, I'll also avoid the stupid blunders. Lower risk lower reward. I'm not looking to make a killing on the AH, just make some bucks to cover my investment and maybe over time some to cover xpac(s).
  14. Blackstream

    Blackstream IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    My plan is to craft what I need to keep progressing, keep a reserve in case I end up needing it, and sell everything else. When I was playing the d3 open beta, I ended up pretty easily hitting about 30ish dps which let me easily trash the area I was in by the end. But I could hit 50-60 by crafting gear with my primary attribute and such as well. I'll probably actually very early on craft to get an initial set of gear so I'm not running around with white armor, and then only make efforts to upgrade when it's clear my stuff is out of date.

    But I'll be honest, I'll also be checking the markets obsessively, and if I see that for example essenses are selling for 50 cents a pop and I've got 80 saved up...

    Let's just say I'll be ordering a pizza later.
  15. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    You'll need a **** load of mats and gold to craft your "initial gear set, just think how much real money you invested in re rolling crafting over and over to get what you want, what you could of sold all those mats and gold. Perhaps getting the stats on the item you want, the GAH would be a better and cheaper choice.

    I'm sure there will be some noob whos crafted exactly what you want and listed it for way under its real value, take advantage of the casual player who doesn't know what they are doing.


  16. capnlarge

    capnlarge IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    I think I'll take the first week to just chill and play the game. Have some fun upgrading my stash, upgrading my blacksmith etc. Let the market figure itself out and by the time it does I will have quite a bit of in-game wealth. Plus, I will have had fun with the game just doing whatever. After the honeymoon period, I will worry about min/maxing.
  17. DoxieVon

    DoxieVon IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    IMO:
    Demand for gold will never be higher than it will in the first two weeks, also supply for gold will never be lower than in the first two weeks. Sell gold early and often. What you do with the $ from it is up to you.

    Rush to end game content... the number of people that will spend $9k+ on in game items is limited(wow accounts have been sold for this much on non-sanctioned sites). I willing to bet the first windforce/azurwarth will sell for 5k+. Make no mistake, these people exists, there may only be 10 in the world, but they exists. Try to get one of the first 10 for a big payday... if not... well the number of people that are willing to spend 100$ on an in game item is probably in the hundreds. I'm sure WF/AW will continue to sell for $100+ for at least the first month.
  18. jwfcp

    jwfcp IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    I dunno, no one will have anything worth buying for a while. its easy enough to be content with what you get as a casual playing solo throughout normal, probably nightmare too. in the beta you can roll around the weeping hollow and pick up half a dozen junk blues, break em down and roll a new piece of gear, same will be true live, and so normal will be full of do-it-yourself-ers.

    of course if theres any gul dagger like items they may be hot, though even a "gul dagger" itself would suck with these mechanics, but maybe something like a crafted set bonus, like 3 pieces of tals? people would go nuts for that, especially since finding one part of the set opens up the whole set to you for crafting. thats a big if though, short of that I dont see the sink from crafting to be that much of a driving force, till later on (guessing 2 weeks till people are in hell?)
  19. doggyfish

    doggyfish IncGamers Member

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    I completely agree with Pheal (#5), no matter what ppl are saying atm, its all hypothetical.
    Without game release, we can not see the market trend, who knows what majority of ppl will do.
    Would you pay for some item knowing which will be nearly useless as you progress into the game,
    or would you pay for some amount of gold without knowing if in next Act gold drop will be doubled or tripled.
    There are uncertainties in buyers and sellers, and anyone wants to make srs money will need to know what they are doing before they do it.

    For me personally, I will sit back and observe the market, see how it goes. Certainly will jump in if I can clearly see me making money based on facts not hypothesis.
  20. ADJMan

    ADJMan IncGamers Site Pal

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    Re: Release week market strategy

    I'm just wondering why you would wait. If you post what you have for more than what you would pay for it, then the worst that could happen is it doesn't sell and you just repost for a lower amount. Since there are no penalties associated with posting an item, then I will be trying everything I can to maximize profits before the market settles. Imagine waiting for the market to settle and you find out that 1000000 gold you had stashed could have made you $1000 and once the market settled it only makes you $10. I'm not a big fan of regrets. Since supply in the early game will be the shortest it will be for the life of the game, the prices on everything will be outrageous. The only way the cost of items will go as the market settles is down.
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2012

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