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Problem with farming keys

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 General Discussion' started by sangfagel, May 5, 2013. | Replies: 17 | Views: 2287

1. sangfagelIncGamers Member

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I am trying to farm keys. Everything was well in the beginning. I got planes and one of every key. Then I got 8 keys of destruction in 20 tries, which is exact what I could expect playing MP4.
But my luck (and any logic) has ended in Act 2. I killed Sokahr Keywarden 6 times on MP4 and 5 times more on MP5 without a single key drop. Since probability of such event is 0.208% I start start to believe that my â€œbad luckâ€ is not accidental. Has anybody similar problem? Or maybe an idea about a reason to my failure?
... And yes - I stack 5 Nephalem valor before I enter Oahlgur Oasis - use to get some extra elites there as well

2. Forgotten OneIncGamers Member

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There is only one thing that affects key drops and that's monster power.
At monster power 4 there is a 60% chance that the key will not drop.
That percentage doesn't govern a collection of runs.
Instead, it's a percentage that applies to a single instance of a key drop.

3. sangfagelIncGamers Member

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Well, in every INDIVIDUAL case was probability of non drop 60% (monster power 4) and than 50% (monster power 5). Probability for non drop in the entire sequence is different though:
0.6*0.6* 0.6*0.6* 0.6*0.6*0.5*05*0.5*05*0.5=0.001458=0.1485%

Since it is more likely that I am stupid than unlucky, so I am trying to discover what I am doing wrong

4. RazeBarbIncGamers Member

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If you get 5 stacks of NV and then kill the warden on any MP1-9 without getting the key, you're just unlucky.

5. nurmanIncGamers Member

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This

After you do ~1000 runs at, say, mp4, you will probably average around 400 keys, maybe 50-100 less or more.

6. KatnissIncGamers Member

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Everyone else has pretty much sufficiently answered your question/issue, but to add anecdotal evidence, there was a time where I would always get keys when going on runs with friends no matter what MP. And then a few nights ago I did a few runs with friends on MP8 for Act 2 keys and got zero. I think it was maybe 4-5 runs without a single key. Sometimes luck just isn't on your side!

7. sangfagelIncGamers Member

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Thanks for all response!
Playing statistics with little samples can be pretty misguiding - I should know better. The only stupid thing I did was calculating probability.
Anyway keys start to drop for me again.
Regards
Sangfagel

8. RazeBarbIncGamers Member

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That being said, I can't wait to NOT play act3 for the next 100 keys
I've stopped doing the Warden when I got to 52 keys, because I want to craft all of the machines at once.
As soon as the patch is live on EU, I'll be farming 50xa1 + 50xa2 keys

9. InteNuIgenIncGamers Site Pal

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Amen to that!

10. SnelephantIncGamers Member

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I noticed a similar anomaly for the act I keywarden. About 50 kills on MP0 with 5NV with no drops. That is less than a one percent chance. Whereas Acts 2 and 3 seemed to drop keys at the expected rate. Again, perhaps the sample size is too small to expect the average, but I wouldn't rule out a bug somewhere.

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Personally, I like to save my keyrun complaints until the HR crafting stage, when I can lament the terrible rolls I keep getting.

12. sangfagelIncGamers Member

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Just of curiosity: What has â€œthe patchâ€ to do with it? Why do you wait with your farming of a1 and a2 keys until patch release?

13. tougeznutIncGamers Member

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With 1.0.8 you get increased monster density in acts 1 & 2 on MP 1 and higher. Meaning farming for keys will also net him XP and potentially loot (in acts 1 & 2), instead of being a complete waste of time if he doesn't find a key.

I'm hoping I presumed your intentions correctly

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

14. sangfagelIncGamers Member

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Oh, sure! ... But 1.08 is active in EU allready and thereÂ´s nothing wrong with monstes density. He donÂ´t need to wait any longer

15. NightswipeIncGamers Member

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This is a little off topic but I felt this question isn't enough to make an entire thread of. I am farming for Leoric's signet at the moment(soon found 30 legen but no ring). I play on MP 10 normal. I have never encountered the keywarden in Dahlgur Oasis but I just did now.
Is his appearance random in normal?

16. InteNuIgenIncGamers Site Pal

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Strange, since 1.0.8 the keywardens should only occur in Inferno

17. PearlJamaholicIncGamers Member

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I do think something is weird with Act 1 keyruns. I started a spreadsheet to keep track of this, im currently at 14 runs on mp2 with no key. I keep running the same warden until i get a key, then i move to the next act. well here is my small sheet since i started keeping score. I'm gonna keep going with this to get a better sample size.

[TABLE="width: 351"]
Act 1 Act 2 Act 3 MP1 10% [TD="align: right"]12[/TD] [TD="align: right"]12[/TD] [TD="align: right"]8[/TD] [TD="align: right"]10[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]44[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] MP 2 20% [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD="align: right"]7[/TD] [TD="align: right"]12[/TD] [TD="align: right"]1[/TD] [TD="align: right"]7[/TD] [/TABLE]

18. sangfagelIncGamers Member

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43 failed tries in row on mp1 is impressive! Probability would be 0.9 raised to 44th power. It is very unlikely.

Playing Blizz games a long time I can say that all of them can be reduced to throwing a dice. Hundreds of thousands people throwing their dices every day hour after hour, year after year.

It makes possible that even (ALLMOST) impossible events can occur. Today I rescued a guy in a2, oasis - the one who was tied to a pale by imperial guards and leaved to die. He dropped Manticore for me. How likely is it?

And...I donÂ´t want to hear any “congratulations”! I would loose 114116.2 dps if I used it.:badteeth: