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Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Market & Economy Discussion Forum' started by Azzure, Nov 18, 2011. | Replies: 32 | Views: 2452

  1. Azzure

    Azzure IncGamers Member

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    Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    Stackable items can now be purchased and sold on the gold Auction House. These items can be purchased in any quantity provided that the quantity is available for sale, and will pull from multiple auction listings if needed.

    This means that the commodities market will act like a sharemarket, in which there is a market value that is consistent. More in this news piece.
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2011
  2. Concupisco Quaestus

    Concupisco Quaestus IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    Wow, that's a really interesting route to take, happy to see Blizzard pushing on with even more "outside the box" type thinking for the industry. :thumbup:
  3. Azzure

    Azzure IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    It's a sound solution.

    I've mentioned more than once that I feel that having millions of the same items at varying costs, selling and listing every 0.1 seconds would be a significant issue with high-volume items (ie all commodities).

    +1 Blizzard.

    I wonder if they will implement selling Commodities "at market price", which would automatically adjust your items prices to be competitive in the event that the price changes after you list an item.


  4. RazeBarb

    RazeBarb IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    I don't really understand how the buying will work with this change.

    A is listing 200xScraps for 1g/each
    B is listing 73xScraps for 13g/each

    I'm buying 273xScraps. How much do I pay? 1149g? Or are the prices getting calculated behind the scenes to find a certain percentage?
  5. Azzure

    Azzure IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    Good question.

    The answer is quite simple - if you were the first person buying those scraps, you would get the scraps in order of cheapest first, second cheapest second etc.

    So in this case, lets pretend that these are the 3 cheapest listings for the scraps at the exact time you start browsing:
    A has listed 200x scraps @ 1g ea
    B has listed 73x scraps @13g ea
    C has listed 73x scraps @ 20g ea

    Your the first person who then puts a buy request for 273 scraps. You will recieve scraps A and B at their exact listed prices. So the first 200 scraps you will pay 1g each, and the next 73 you will pay 13g each. The next person comes along and wants 50 scraps. He will get 50 of the 73 of C listing scraps @ 20g each.

    The thing to remember is that the market is moving at a blistering rate - there are millions of people. Quite literally, there will be buying and listing of those scraps multiple times a second. So this is done very very quickly.

    This is where it gets interesting - If Blizzard implement a "sell at market rate" option to sellers, then the seller would list the scraps without even specifying the sell price. The scraps will be placed in a pool of other scraps and will sell for whatever the current scraps of that type are selling for AND assuming they implement this also (which they would kind of have to if they added "at market rate") they would require the buyer to submit a buy order which has a desired Buy price field and a quantity field. This would basically tell the market what you will pay for the items, and be the basis of what the "market rate" is.


  6. ChetWalters

    ChetWalters IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    Wouldn't this tend to deflate the market? Everyone WANTS to pay less for an item. Ex: If the Windforce (the go-to example) is currently selling for $100, but a massive amount of buyers organize to say they will only pay $10, won't that disrupt the market? It would essentially be a temporary boycott in order to drive down prices. I understand that in real markets, the buyers determine the price too, but seemingly not to this degree. If 1000 people all said they would only buy an iPad for $100, Apple isn't going to change their price. Is my fear unfounded due to the shear complexity of trying to actually organize a market-wide boycott?


  7. Azzure

    Azzure IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    That's not how it works, for a few reasons. Namely, the concept of Supply and Demand.

    1) That's like saying "If everyone on earth suddenly wanted to get cheap apples, they could all boycott it by all saying they won't pay more than 1c for an apple". They can try that, until a hungry guy says, "well I'm starving so I'm going to offer you 2c if you sell it to me". Than another guy says "well, I'd definitely pay 20c for that apple, because I'm also quite hungry and I can easily part with 20c for a nice lovely red apple, sell it to me!".

    2) Supply and demand dictates pricing on things. Without going in to complex detail, basically in your example, someone would say: "well I'll pay $11 for a Windy, because I'd easily want it for that price". Than someone else will say "well I'd pay $12". The next guy. "I'd pay $20". And so on until the price reaches the maximum that someone is willing to pay for the Windforce. Times that by a few thousand instances, and you have yourself an accurate value for Windforce.

    In other words, that cannot possibly happen, unless you could collectively control the entire player-base's minds.

    To bring the point home I'll provide a more typical example of how this happens in a Diablo 3 context:

    The game launched 10 seconds ago. Seller has 1 scrap. He lists it on AH for "at market value" (for this example lets pretend that the scraps SHOULD be worth 20g ordinarily). A naughty little bargain hunter comes in and puts in a buy order for 1g for scraps, hoping to snag a bargain. He gets the 1x scrap for 1g, and then puts down another buy order for more scraps, as they are worth far more than 1g. 3 Seconds later, another guy looks at scraps and notices that they are going for 1g! He immediately puts in a buy order for a hundred scraps and puts up a 2g ea price so the scraps go to him instead of the other guy(s) paying 1g. He gets a few scraps and now the market value is 2g. Another guy comes along, holy crap, scraps are going for 2g! He puts in a buy order for 1000 units @ 10g each, to ensure that all units go to him because he wants to start crafting some stuff. Next guy comes along, "hmm, I want to craft this awesome sword and I need loads of those. I'd totally pay 20g each for them."

    Naughty guy comes back with 100 friends, and they all put down buy orders for 1g to attempt to abuse the market and get some cheap scraps. Unfortunately for them, their orders never get processed because there are thousands of other buy orders for around 18-22g, and they represent a tiny minority of the Scrap market.

    So after 1 minute of the game starting, scraps have regulated to a steady price, thanks to supply & demand and competition. That is very roughly how prices will be set.


    Last edited: Nov 18, 2011
  8. ChetWalters

    ChetWalters IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    I understand supply and demand, but D3 is a much smaller market than the market for apples. If apples skyrocketed because of pre-teens with parents credit cards up to $1000 apiece, the majority of the market would rebel. There are alternatives to apples, but there are certain items that may be 'necessary' for certain characters. I understand that after thousands of transactions, a 'fair' price will probably be established, but who's going to be willing to pay the initial prices that will be necessary to regulate things?

    This is why I asked if it was an unfounded fear.

    I think I'll just sit back and watch the market at the release (except for maybe selling things for exorbitant prices!) and wait for the dust to settle after a few months.


  9. Azzure

    Azzure IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    The commodities markets will be absolutely massive. Hundreds of thousands at any one time (some in the millions). Remember, only item stacks have this new feature (which are mostly commodities). These are the items that are extremely liquid, are consumed very fast and are generated quickly.

    Majority always rules in Markets. If most people value an item at x price, than the price will be x, no matter what collective of people attempt to revalue (so long as they don't become the majority). If a select few decide to pay $1000 more than they should, it wouldn't even be a blip in the system. In fact, if you put in a $1000 order for an item that was worth $5, you'd still only pay $5 if that is the current market rate. (that's how buy orders work, it's the maximum you're willing to spend vs the cheapest you can find on the market)

    Remember, whenever something is considered "too cheap", there will always be a large number of players who will jump on that, which results in the price regulating to it's "real" value.

    There will be competition almost immediately, so the first hour of the markets will already be measured in majority-accepted perceived values, not "scam" prices. Though those perceived values will almost certainly be wrong in the long-term averages. In my description above, that type of thing would happen almost immediately.

    So in other words, in the opening of the market people will pay for items / sell items for "fair" values, but those values will likely turn out to be totally wrong, but that's fine because that's how the market regulates. You might end up better off or worse off, that really depends on how accurate your guesses were on what things are worth.


  10. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    I would guess that there wont be market orders, just pooling of like priced items. They will probably just aggregate all selling points that players post so you'll see something like:
    item cost quantity
    scrap 2g 50
    scrap 3g 200
    scrap 5g 1000
    etc

    if they go to a more advanced system as you're suggesting they bliz will be involving themselves in the market more which is something they claim they are against.

    That said we should know pretty soon, once they fix this new patch.
  11. FizzyBubbly

    FizzyBubbly IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    i could go on with a long post, but i'll just say that to see this implemented is a beautiful elegant solution.

    Also you speak about "sell at market" and if they institute that then on the buying and selling end would they implement limit orders? for example the options may look like

    Sell 200 scrap
    --at market--
    -- Limit--- amount 5g/scrap
    order open for 24hours

    this may be too advanced but just intellectually the next step
  12. Concupisco Quaestus

    Concupisco Quaestus IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    I'm just happy to see that they are either paying attention to communal conversations or that they've got "thinkers" on their side handling this as well, I was getting a little concerned at one point as I saw the same thing Azzure did in regards to flooding markets... Either way, regardless of how it works in the final product I'm glad to see it will be something outside the "norm" and not just a carbon copy WoW AH. Big props to Blizzard and Staff. :thumbup:
  13. AngleWyrm

    AngleWyrm IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    I'm not quite understanding this selling "at market" thing. Is that the same thing as selling for lowest current price?

    Because if so, I would sell a single scrap for 1gp just before buying a ton of scrap, and would that drag a huge ghost market of unspecified 'at market' people into a trap of selling me their scrap at 1gp/scrap?

    Also, is there some preference to sell the declared 1gp scrap first, and then the at market people's scrap? What about any 2gp scrap currently on the market; does that also get sold before the at market people? When exactly would any of the at market scrap get sold?
  14. Concupisco Quaestus

    Concupisco Quaestus IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    If you wanted to buy 5 scraps, 2 are currently listed for 5000, 2 listed for 10000 and 2 listed for 12000, your cost wouldn't be 5000 per scrap it would be the average right? You could list a scrap for 1g before you make your buy but you would only get your own scrap at that price, I think that "natural" buyer experience is what they are going to try and duplicate, only they are going to do it behind the scenes so instead of you seeing those listings and buying the 5 lowest priced items from an AH where the search results would be outdated before you get them, you punch in what you want to buy and they just sell you the 5 lowest being listed on that AH for the collective price.
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2011
  15. Azzure

    Azzure IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    I agree totally with this. While an "at market" feature would solve the issue of people's listings potentially being undercut and not being able to do anything except relist, I think my suggestion would be too advanced for the average player, so they will not likely do this.

    Selling at Market basically eliminates the notion of "lowest price" and replaces it with "last price". If you've ever traded shares or Forex, it is exactly how they trade. If not I'll try my best to explain it:

    (One thing I forgot to mention is that when you sell "at market", there are very tight limits - if the current market value drops more than 5-10%, your sell order is automatically void or you are prompted to confirm.)

    If you sell one of your scraps for 1g, all that would happen is some lucky guy will get a scrap for 1g. The market value would remain what it was, due to all the other BUY orders in the market.

    It works kind of like a ratio of buyers vs sellers. Consider this scenario.

    Scenario:
    Common scraps market value is currently 50g each. Say there are 10,000 common scraps selling "in market" for market value. And there are 5,000 buy orders in the market. Of these 5000 buy orders, 3000 have a max buy price at 50g per scrap. Another 1000 have a buy order at 45g. Another 1000 have a buy order at 1g.

    The system would do the following:
    Execute the 3000 scraps @ 50g.
    Execute the 1000 scraps @ 45g. CHANGE market value of the scraps to 45g.
    Ignore the 1000 buy order @1g because it is too low

    The fall in price happened because there is a bigger supply then the current buy orders, which caused the current supply and demand to push the price down. In a real Diablo 3 scenario, this would be change every second, and the amount of sellers to buyers ratio would change dynamically (more buyers @ lower prices, less buyers @ higher prices)

    So here is what happens next in this scenario:

    A few hundred people come across to the AH and notice that scraps are only 45. Suddenly, the demand for scraps @ 45g is much higher than it was @ 50g. There is now 20,000 buy orders for scraps @ 45-49g. There is only 5,000 scraps on sale:
    System does the following:
    Execute 5,000 scraps @ 49g
    Adjust market value to 49g.

    So what happens next? A guy comes along that really needs scraps ASAP, and there is quite a shortage due to the recent price drop. He is willing to pay 60g per scrap because he thinks its definitely worth it. He enters a buy price of 60g for 5,000 units. All scraps that are now listed at market will sell for 60g until this guys order is fulfilled, in which it will revert to the next highest. And so on.

    So what does this example tell us? That while there will be constant value shifting in small range variations, one can't simply manipulate the market without controlling a huge % of the playerbase. (which no one can obviously do)


  16. Concupisco Quaestus

    Concupisco Quaestus IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    The only problem I see with market pricing is that people will be kinda forced into selling their items at a semi-fixed price without any real option to set pricing themselves (aka sell low for quick sales) and as such why not just use a system with fixed pricing and save yourself a couple thousand lines of code?
  17. Azzure

    Azzure IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    The "at Market" is just an option you can choose if you want to be lazy and let the system determine the price rather than running around looking for what the value is. Though I totally agree that we will not likely see this in the game due to the complexity in both creating it, and the average user not knowing what it means.


  18. AngleWyrm

    AngleWyrm IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    Thanks for describing this process; it's quite a bit different than picturing a bell curve of sale prices.
    So the reason the final 1000 buy order @1g did not go through was because of a safety net feature, designed to prevent the market from crashing?


    Last edited: Nov 20, 2011
  19. Baalat

    Baalat IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    Nice feature.
    But it looks like it needs something like a limit target
    For example let's say in the previous example I want to buy 273 scraps but at a maximum price of 5g each. Then the system should fill a partial order with the 200 that are available for 1g, and leave an open order for the remaining 73 scraps ... :scratchchin:


  20. sgeos

    sgeos IncGamers Member

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    Re: Massive news: Patch 6 Commodities

    As I understand the D3 AH, there is no option to create open buy orders. You create open sell orders, and other people close them.


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