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Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Market & Economy Discussion Forum' started by PearlOrion, Apr 29, 2012. | Replies: 63 | Views: 12652

  1. PearlOrion

    PearlOrion IncGamers Member

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    Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    Note: Some wild assumptions here.

    Crafting
    Player skips crafting.

    Gem Crafting
    Player skips gem upgrades.

    Item Selling
    Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

    After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

    Gold Selling
    Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

    Commodity Selling
    Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
    Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
    Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

    Grand Total excluding Gems
    Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

    So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?
  2. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    WAAAAAAY wrong assumptions LOL.

    Let's see...first one :

    "Item Selling
    Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops".

    Did you skipped math classes ? IF 1 legendary item drops every 16 hours , with 3 million players (lowest estimate) playing an average of 2 hours / day (very possible, one guy that farms 16 hours = 16 guys that play 1 hour) , this means 6,000,000 hours played / day.Split this to 16 hours (for one legendary) and in FIRST day there will be, holly momma , 375,000 legendary items !!!

    At this rate, in 8 days, EVERYONE will have one legendary :D :D :D

    EVEN assuming only rares and no legendary...in 8 days everyone will have a rare and in 3 months everyone will be decked in rares.

    Also, the PRICE for an item with a drop rate of 375,000 will be...insignificant.There won't even be 375,000 lvl 1 gems droped / day man.

    Next :
    "Gold Selling
    Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15."

    This rocks man :D ! Who in their RIGHT MINDS will spend 16 hours / day for a fcking 0.50 $ / day ?
    Also...1,000,000 gold = 1 $.Really ?

    I stop here, because your next afirmations are based on the above VERY WRONG assumptions.


    I have made my own calculations (in last 5 days , and STILL keep calculating) to see at what price the gold will stabilize, in corelations with the estimate number of players that can play 8 hours / day, those that can play 6 hours, those with 4 and so on, how much gold they farm each, how much they farm in total, how much are the possible expenses, how much would a farmer consider to be WORTHY for him to sell the gold / items in order to make like 4 $ / day (otherwise, really, nobody will farm).

    I CANNOT tell you the numbers, because they cover all posible gold prices (from 10,000 per 1$ till 50,000 per 1$) and it is really my own work and i keep it for me.Once the game starts, i will have an excel ready with all posible scenarios...can't tell squat, because everyone here is a potential GAH / RMAH shark :D

    But, one thing i can tell ya for sure : the gold will stabilize at 29,000-30,000 per 1 euro (i am EU based), and will probably reach 50,000 gold per 1 euro in 4-6 months.

    I also can tell ya that a farmer who plays 8 hours / day will be able to make a medium of 10 $ / day , which means 300 $ / month.
    If he plays 16 hours, 600 $ / month.
  3. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    the guides are make believe.

    go play d2 classic for a good approximation of drop rates.

    dont waste your time making up stuff - learn the game and adapt when it goes live and we have more information.
  4. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    meaningless speculation:withstupid:

    "Legendary item is $10" LOL
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2012
  5. Karpalo

    Karpalo IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    Sure there will. With that kind of pace there would be like 50 tier 14 gems made after a year IF every gem ever dropped would have been used to make one of those.

    They will be hard to get, but without a doubt not that.


  6. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    1 million gold = $1 LMFAO


  7. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    .............:evil:
  8. Blackstream

    Blackstream IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    Right now gold prices can't go any lower than 100k per $1, since .01 per 1000 is the lowest it can be listed for. I don't think 1 legendary per 16 hours is a bad estimate though, especially for a character with decent mf gear. Now whether or not these legendaries will sell for $10 is another thing, but you'll probably at least get a roll. I mean, I got way more than that half assing my mf running in d2, it just so happens my drops were usually bad.

    If they are that rare, however, that means legendary mats really are going to be stupid expensive.
  9. Medivon

    Medivon IncGamers Member

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    Anyone can assume anything and can come up with any crazy assumptions. Just read this.


  10. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    I know what you mean. He is pulling numbers out of his ar*se.:lol2:


  11. Blackstream

    Blackstream IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    To really guess how much money gold will make, I don't think anyone here, not even semakka really knows. But we can guess. There's three main factors

    How much people can make
    How much things cost
    How much people are willing to spend

    Now, it was dropped that gold in later states will be dropping in piles of 200-400, which probably includes the nephalem buff, but not crazy amounts of gf gear, so upping that estimate to an average of lets say just 500 a drop, versus like the 20 we get in beta, I know there are people that can get 20k an hour, but I think that might have been with selling gear, so lets lower that to 10k an hour. That's about 500 gold pickups in an hour. That means with 500 gold in drops, assuming you can farm with the same efficiency in regards to monster killing (big assumption), that's about 250k an hour.

    Now cost wise, lets assume this is late enough that only repair costs are factoring in. How much is stuff gonna cost to repair? Well, it was mentioned that it seems like it was, "Blacksmith upgrade, jeweler upgrade, repair costs, upgrading gear from vendors, pick 2". So given that, and given that they likely weren't running around with boss gold find gear (but probably some because they needed gold), and 3 of those aren't needed anymore, but the cost of repairs likely went quite a bit up, lets say 300 of that 500 gold per drop goes to repairs (which, as a sidenote, would mean the average non-gf based builds would probably be at a net loss of gold), that leaves a net income of 100k gold an hour.

    Now at the minimum gold sell price, you're making about $1 an hour. If it's around 50k per $1 (not gonna bother converting to euros) like semakka thinks, it'll be more like $2 an hour. That would shape my estimate to an 8 hour day to about $8-$16 a day.

    There's heavy assumptions laden in this though. What if you only send 50k towards repairs an hour, and you get 200k an hour? Well then you're making $2-$4 an hour.

    But the final factor is what people are willing to pay. Now, if people paid what time was worth, then if the average gf per hour was 100k, people would be paying at least $7 an hour or about 7 cents per 1000 gold (as a sidenote, look what a huge difference an extra couple of cents makes on profits at this level... if there's any price flunctuation at all at this level, it'll make for potentially massive profits).

    But people are kind of selfish and won't wanna do that. More importantly, it's something like 170k a crafting roll for just gold. People are willing to pay $5 for grab bags that have one or two rolls for something rather nice in other mmos, so if we lower that to $4 for 200k, that's about $2 for 100k, or right about what semakka was guessing. I really don't know what people are psychologically gonna be willing to spend though. At minimum, $1 for 100k, people are paying about $2 a roll. Literally cannot go lower than this right now. What people are willing to pay is really the part I absolutely cannot predict though, so we'll just have to wait and see.
  12. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    I don't know...50 or 80 tier 14 gems a year looks unbelievable ? Might be so.Than how much would be beleivable ? 500 per year ? 1000 per year ?

    You think that tier lvl 14 gems will be for anyone ? Just think about only 5 sockets / player.Will 10% of the player base "deserve" to have all 5 sockets gemmed with tier 14 gems in one year ? Doesn't sound much, isn't it ? There HAVE to be like 10% of GOOD players.
    Yes there are.However...this means : 500,000 x 5 sockets = 2,500,000 tier 14 gems.Every year.

    The cost to craft a tier 14 gem is somewhere between 40 million (all pages and tomes farmed and tier 1 gems cost 100 for 1 gold) and 55 million (same, but tier 1 gems cost 10 gold a pop).
    Now, you need to calculate how much is the rate gold : $, in order to see if it is FEASABLE to have 2,500,000 x tier 14 gems / year.
    I did, and trust me...it IS NOT FEASABLE (or in other words will make the gold to be like 1,000,000 gold for 1$ in just 3 weeks or so = hyperinflation = ****ty economy = fewer RMAH trasactions = no more $$$ for Blizzard. Ain't gonna happend).

    The thing is...tier 14 gems MUST be rare enough in order NOT to destabilize the economy.

    How rare ? Well, maybe not 80 / year (as i said in my post - was just a sarcasm to show the guy the value of a legendary if there are 375,000 legendary drops / day) maybe not 150...but i am QUITE certain (again, based on many many calculations for a good number of possibilities - those i CANNOT say, not do i will ever sell a "guide" with them lol) that a HEALTHY number of Tier 14 gems cannot really be bigger than 700 to 1,000 per year.

    They are suposed to be EXPENSIVE , hence RARE, otherwise the VALUE (cost 40 mil to 55 mil. up to a max of 75 million gold to craft) of one Tier 14 gem will NOT reflect the RARITY

    Also to be taken into consideration is the small increase in stats from tier to tier.The point is : If 1 tier 14 gem = 3 x tier 13 gems = 9 x tier 12 = 27 x tier 11 = 81 x tier 10 and the increase is like 7 % from tier to tier (100 / 13 ), a tier 14 gems being only 30% better than a tier 10 one BUT 81 times more EXPENSIVE, the question is :

    -Will it WORTH to craft tier 14 gems ?

    Probably YES, but most will NOT sell them, because it IS VERY PROBABLE that a guy UPGRADING from tier 11 gems will PREFER to SPEND the same ammount to buy 9 x tier 12 gems.
    9 x tier 11 upgraded to 9 x tier 12 gems = 9 x 7 % increase in stats = 63 %
    1 x tier 11 upgraded to 1 x tier 14 gems = 7% + 7% + 7% = 21 %

    A THEREE time increase with SAME gold or money.A no brainer.

    This is why there won't be 1,000 x tier 14 gems crafted per year, but 81,000 x tier 10 gems.
    In the same logic, there will be 1,000 BEST items droped per year, but also will be 100,000 of BEST (but 5% weaker) items droped per year and 400,000 BEST (but 10% weaker) items per year.

    Gold value will not only be set by demand and supply rule, but also in close relation with crafting costs for top items and gems and with drop rate of those items and gems.

    Soemthing VERY RARE and VERY EXPENSIVE (like tier 14 gems) must retain a Gold Value expressed in Real Money, because gold = real money, and if tier 14 gems will cost 50 million gold BUT will be so common that their real value to be at 20 $...
    the gold parity with $ will count in millions per 1.

    Everytime when one wants to assume SOMETHING about Diablo 3, like drop rates for gold and items, crafting costs, how many tier 14 gems will be, he MUST take into account the RMAH, Blizzard statements that GOLD will be VALUABLE and the FACT that Blizzard wants to make money with RMAH.

    Rare items will be RARE and cost TOP NOTCH real money (like 1,000 $) for crazy gamers and rich people.
    In the same time there will be enough "cheap" (like 5-10-20 $) items for the vast majority of casuals.

    And everything is because Diablo 3 will have a RMAH.
    Without RMAH, there can be 10,000,000 legendaries and 10,000,000 tier 14 gems, Blizzard won't really care about this.


    But RMAH changes everything.


    (Edit) Example from real life that works in Diablo 3 :

    -There are cars that sells for 500,000 $.The producer, in theory, can make 100,000 of those cars per year.
    However, the selling price is a barrier for most people.The producer will sell maybe 1,000 per year.If the income will suddenly rise to 1,000,000 $ / year for most people, the producer can easily sell all 100,000 cars per year.

    But the $ will have same value as the indian ruppie or w/e third world country.

    This is why there won't be many "500,000 $" cars in Diablo 3.If many...they won't be VALUABLE.And the WHOLE point of RARE items (tier 14 gems, BiS gear and weapons) is for them to be VALUABLE.
    If the producer (Blizzard) decides to increase "the production" of BiS items and lvl 14 gems...the whole ideea of VALUABLE will be flushed in the toillet.

    No valuable ITEMS (in real life or Diablo 3) means that EVERYTHING will be CHEAP.If everything will be cheap so will be the money earned by Blizzard.
    If all cars will cost the same...the value is LOST.There won't be anything to compare those cars with.

    And vithout VALUE...what is the point of earning money ?

    Since everything will be dirt cheap.


    Last edited: Apr 29, 2012
  13. Karpalo

    Karpalo IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    3 regions, probably around 10 millions players total, not evenly distributed, but still safe to say there will be millions of players in each region. <375k gem drops a day is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too conservative estimation.

    Anything concerning RMAH is purely speculation at this point so i won't go there, but i just felt that i had to point out that <375k tier 1 gems a day is utterly ridiculous estimation. There probably never would be a tier 14 gem, or perhaps one tier 14 gem if someone would dedicate his life towards getting one.
  14. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    THERE IS A TL;DR !!! :jig:

    When ESTIMATING how many gems will drop, you must know that the ONLY ones who will drop will be tier 1 - tier 5.ALL of the superior tiers MUST be crafted.Every craft will cost 50 gold.

    I just was sarcastic when i said that won't be 375,000 tier 1 gems droped / day ONLy to point out the 375,000 legendaries / day.

    You did not bothered to read my last post (i know it is long) to see the LOGIC behind the reasoning of WHY tier 14 gems will be extremely rare.
    Are you more happier with 10,000,000 tier 1 gems droped / day ? If yes, you should also know that those 10,000,000 gems if crafted into tier 14 gems will ONLY mean 18,8 x tier 14 gems / day ?
    Assuming a VERY realistic 2 hours played / day / player with also a VERY realistic 5,000,000 players, this means 10,000,000 hours / day.

    10,000,000 hours / day and 10,000,000 tier 1 gems / day = 1 x tier lvl 1 gem / hour.
    Wanna DOUBLE the drop rate ?
    1 x tier 1 gems / 30 min / player, OR, in other words, 37 x tier 14 gems / day.OR, in other words ONLY 13,724 tier 14 gems / YEAR.
    Let's double the drop rate AGAIN, will ya?
    1 x tier 1 gem / 15 min / player >>>>>>>>>>>>> 27,448 Tier 14 gems per YEAR.

    5 sockets / player = 25,000,000 sockets.In order to have a BIG chunck of player base (let's say 20% - 1 million players) with 5 x tier 14 gems, this means that there will have to be 5,000,000 x tier 14 gems available.
    To have those 1 million players each with 5 x tier 14 gems in ONE YEAR :
    -there will have to be 13,968.63 x tier 14 gems / day, OR
    -274,944,544.29 x tier 5 gems droped per day (max tier that can drop), OR
    -22,270,508,087 x tier 1 gems droped per day.

    This means, with 5 million players playing an average of 2 hours / day (very realistic figure) for a total of 10 million hours / day :
    -the drop rate for tier 5 gems = 190,933 / hour/ player OR 3182 / minute / player OR 53 / second / player.

    So, 53 x tier 5 gems to drop EVERY second for EVERY player ?

    Let's say that those 20% player to have their 5 x tier 14 gems on TEN YEARS...this means 5 x tier 5 gems /second/player.

    If i do this for tier 1 gems will mean 4293 gems /second/ player for ONE YEAR gearing of 20% of the players, or 429 / second / player for TEN YEARS gearing 20% of the players.

    BACK to reality.

    There is common sense to accept a drop rate of 1 gem / hour / player or even 2 gems / hour / player.Assuming ONLY tier 5 gems, this means 20,000,000 x tier 5 gems / day.This means 1,016 x tier 14 gems / day or 370,840 tier 14 gems / year.

    So, even in the ABSURD case of 2 gems / hour / player (1 gem every 30 min - not going to happend), there will be only 370,840 tier 14 gems per year.Split this number to 5 sockets/gear/player and you will realize that ONLY 74,168 players will have their gear with 5 x lvl 14 gems at the end of ONE YEAR.

    71,168 player out of 5,000,000 means 1,48 %.

    TL;DR :

    So, at a drop rate of 2 x tier 5 gem/hour/player, in ONE YEAR, only 1,5% of the players will have 5 x tier 14 gems socketed on their gear.
    You thinks it is "unfair" that only 1,5% of the players to have this chance?

    Well, if you want, let's say 30% to have 5 x tier 14 gems socketed on their gear in one year, than you MUST understand that there will
    HAVE TO BE a drop rate of 40 x tier 5 gems / hour / player.
    Or one tier 5 gem EVERY 90 SECONDS / player.

    So, what you think it is MORE LIKELY going to be happend :
    - 40 gems /hour / player (to please 30% of the players in one year) , OR
    - 2 gems / hour / player ?

    And the above case is FOR tier 5 gems.For tier 1 the drop rate must be 81 times HIGHER :
    - 3,200 gems / hour / player
    - 162 gems / hour / player

    IT WILL BE ABSURD to have a drop rate of gems (regardless if tier 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) bigger than 2 gems / hour / player.
    Most likely, the drop rate will be like 1 gem / hour / player for tier 5 gems.

    Do not be amazed if you can't have more than 1 gem / hour.The tier 14 gems MUST be scarce enough to be expensive enough.
    It is NOT about pleasing the majority of players, but to make it so that only 1% of the players to reach their maximum potential with tier 14 gems.

    For the majority, there will be plenty of tier 8 tier 10 gems to socket up (729 to 81 times more gems than tier 14).If the top 1% will have tier 14 gems, 99% will also have tier 8 to 10 gems (after one year).

    What do you want ? Everyone with fully socketed with tier 14 gems in one year lol ?

    Case closed.Class dismissed.


    Last edited: Apr 29, 2012
  15. Eagle

    Eagle IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    lol, you might want to check the current datamined beta client gem combine costs. Here's a hint, they scale up with levels and they start way higher than 50g.

    If people are going to pull numbers out of there *** they should at least only do it for numbers we haven't seen. (Yes costs could well change for release. But datamined numbers are better than totally made up numbers.)

    http://diablonut.incgamers.com/jeweler if you don't know where to look for the numbers.


  16. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    Thx Eagle.

    This new crating costs ( WAAAAAY higher ), are just enforcing my theory that tier 14 gems will be even more scarce that everyone best estimates.

    I think the drop rate will be quite low ( less than 1 x tier 5 gems / hour / player) to make up with the new costs that Eagle so kindly let us know.

    The higher the crafting cost, the lower the drop rate.ANd the other way around.

    Be ready for 2,500 $ for a tier 14 gem...


  17. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    Damn...i should have seen this coming.

    Because it looks like the repairs and BS crafting gold sinks weren't on par with JC crafting costs.Now JC is the gold sink that was supposed to be.

    Still people outhere that think of a rate of 100,000 gold per 1$ ?

    My stabilized rate of 29,000-30,000 gold per 1 $ estimated even without knowing about new beta crafting costs starts to look very realistic to me.
  18. galzohar

    galzohar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    If gold is worth less than 1$ per 1mil, unless Bliz change the system (which they may very well do), people will simply not list gold. Nobody will pay you more $ than your gold is worth simply because you can't list it any cheaper. But again I highly doubt Blizzard will let that happen. Changing how much gold stacks for in the RMAH is extremely easy and can be done indefinitely until people can list gold for affordable prices again.
  19. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?


    "Still people outhere that think of a rate of 100,000 gold per 1$ ?"

    As you should know the minimum amount of gold for $1 cannot be less than 100k

    Minimum sale price: $0.01 per 1k * 100 = $1
    "you can't sell less than $1 worth of gold"

    $1 per 100k is the floor. :eek:mg: the price can only go up from $0.01


  20. jwfcp

    jwfcp IncGamers Member

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    Re: Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

    yes, we all know 100k gold is nothing, if people can make 20k an hour from 50g stacks in the beta, they will make 200k an hour from 500g stacks live, its not rocket surgery. probably more once they all settled in and cozy with their uber sets and optimal grinding strategies. if people want to pay $2 to be able to not need to farm gold for an hour (and you will need it), then thats providing people an opportunity to farm gold for $2 an hour, making $1k in a month like this would push you to nearly an 18 hours day. even kids would rather be out raking leaves or whatever. so the floor isnt terrible, still dont like it, but its not a crisis.

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