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Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Community Forum' started by Diab, Mar 24, 2012. | Replies: 24 | Views: 5048

  1. Diab

    Diab IncGamers Member

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    Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    I've been wondering about this question for a while now. Are item drops really random? Or is priority given to items that the class you are currently playing, can use?

    The first time I really thought about it and wondered was when I played a Witch Doctor, in beta 13 I believe it was. I did a first multiplayer Skeleton King run and got a total of 6 magic wanga dolls, 1 rare wanga doll (first SK kill), and 1 ceremonial knife. The next SK run I did after that had the result of a total of 5 wanga dolls. And the next after that yielded 3 more. Screenshots below:

    First run:
    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v334/Diab64/Screenshot076.jpg

    Second run:
    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v334/Diab64/Screenshot081.jpg

    Third run:
    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v334/Diab64/Screenshot084.jpg


    Since then, I've been noticing similar coincidences happen, although with not nearly as much quantities. For example, just a few hours ago, my DH got a rare bow as a first-kill SK drop.

    Now I know this isn't really conclusive testing by any means and could all well be coincidence, but I wanted to ask if anyone else has noticed patterns like these.
  2. Superstate

    Superstate IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    I do understand what you're grasping at, I remember a while back I noticed I hadn't had a wanga doll during maxing characters to 13, until I started to level a witch doctor and they became close to the most frequently dropped magic item.

    That's still just another anecdote however, and we would need much, much larger samples to be able to draw any conclusions.
  3. Diab

    Diab IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    [​IMG]

    That is one creepy coincidence. It's sets of drops like this that makes me wonder about it the most.

    Of course I understand what you said about needing much larger samples to determine anything. But it really makes you wonder sometimes...
  4. Superstate

    Superstate IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    It's possible that low level areas have a weighted drop rate of items to slightly favor the class you're playing. Getting a good upgrade early is a good trick to get new users to continue playing by giving them a hint of the excitement when finding a good upgrade for your character.
  5. Autti

    Autti IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    item drops for first kills are weighted towards you're character.

    This is a deliberate decision to allow immediate play through, and not force the player to stop and search for gear before tackling a harder boss.
  6. Sooru

    Sooru IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    April Fools?

    For OP, someone getting 6 items exactly for his class is bound to happen when there are so many people running beta. There are several people who notice this 'pattern', and 5384975349 who don't and don't make a post about it :)


  7. Boi

    Boi IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    I hope it's random.
  8. Grayson Carlyle

    Grayson Carlyle IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    No... Blizzard actually stated this a while ago. I've been confused why anyone even started this thread when we already knew that first-kill drops were not completely random.



  9. Diab

    Diab IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    Because, I didn't know that. =p

    I knew that first-kill drops had almost a 100% chance to drop a rare or multiple rares, but did not know if they were completely random item types or not.



  10. Superstate

    Superstate IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    I would like a source explicitly stating this! :nod:

    Edit: I should say I'm not in disbelief, more for the sake of completion.


  11. skysbob

    skysbob IncGamers Member

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    Taken from the Weekend Blue Posts news item on the incg.diablo front page:

    To be clear: On your first kill of a boss in normal difficulty, you are guaranteed a random rare and a class rare, as well as some blues and other stuff. All other kills on all difficulties result in standard drop probabilities. You have a decent chance of getting a rare or two every time you kill a boss.
  12. HardRock

    HardRock IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    That makes it official: Leoric isn't considered a boss by the devs.
  13. Diab

    Diab IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    Actually, I don't think this is quite clear yet.

    Notice how the player's question asked about SK specifically, and the blue response referred to him as a "boss":


    The SK only drops yellow on your first kill of him per character.

    That is incorrect.
    The possibility of a boss (or anything, really) dropping magic gear or rare gear when you kill him remains intact on kills subsequent to your first. The probability may change, but it does not change to a probibility of zero.


    To be clear, I am not arguing for or against SK being the Act 1 end boss. I'm in kind of a neutral stance on this at the moment.

    It is also possible that the blue is referring to SK as a boss but not an end-boss. There may be such things as mid-act bosses or some such.



  14. Superstate

    Superstate IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    @Diabolico x64: I think HardRock was a bit sarcastic, Leoric definitely isn't guaranteed not even one rare (even on the first kill), which by skysbob's statement makes Leoric not a boss.
  15. HardRock

    HardRock IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    I wasn't really trying to be sarcastic this time. My previous post was a deduction based on the post by Kaivax and my experience with Leoric. Like you said, Leoric doesn't always drop a Rare item even when you first kill him and you definitely aren't guaranteed to get a class-specific Rare either. I can think of three possible causes for this:

    1) Leoric is not a boss.

    2) His drops are bugged.

    3) His drops were nerfed for the beta.

    Leoric not being a boss is the most likely explanation I think. The reason is that previously we were told that even the Siegebreaker wasn't boss. If that guy isn't considered a boss, then Leoric definitely isn't either. :)
  16. skysbob

    skysbob IncGamers Member

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    So maybe they only mean the four bosses at the end of each Act by that?
  17. HardRock

    HardRock IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    That would be my guess.
  18. CthulhuFtagn

    CthulhuFtagn IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    Diabolico x64 I find it strange that your pic shows 2 rare sickles, as my first SK run I got two rare sickles on my barbarian as well... not so random.

    Click to enlarge
    [​IMG]

    Click to enlarge
    [​IMG]
  19. Diab

    Diab IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    I've been doing a lot more testing with this since those two rare sickles dropped. This current patch, I played nothing but barbs. I have a level 12 "main" barb with whom I play occasionally, and start and play a new barb just to SK once every couple of days or so. Once that barb kills SK, I stick all his gear (and any sickles I find) into the stash, delete him, make a new one, and repeat. So far I'm up to about my 5th barb or so.

    I have not gotten two rare sickles drop for me at one time anymore. One of the kills dropped one rare and one magic sickle. But I usually have at least some kind of sickle drop, rare or magic. I have no MF% on the character at all; most of the gear I get is focused on rushing past all the content to SK asap, so mostly strength and vitality/health globe stats.

    Among some of the sickles I got so far, from memory alone, were:
    17.1 dps rare sickle
    16.x dps magic sickle
    15.x dps magic sickle x2
    14.7 dps rare sickle

    Even if I ran SK 10 times, it would not be completely conclusive evidence. But seeing as how he consistently dropped at least one sickle for me for every first kill, I have to say that I believe he does so intentionally.
  20. HardRock

    HardRock IncGamers Member

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    Re: Item drops not totally random? Or just coincidence?

    It does seem intentional. Bashiok said, that bosses should drop class-specific Rares on the first kill. Assuming for a moment that Leoric is a boss, then what Bashiok said was a mistake. Leoric definitely drops class-specific Magics on the first kill 99% of times and when he doesn't he usually drops 2 or 3 items less than otherwise, which makes me suspect that his drops are sometimes bugged. Once I actually got only 1 Magic from him on my first run, while usually I get 3-4 Magic and 1-2 Rare.

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