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How Will Botting Effect the Economy

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Market & Economy Discussion Forum' started by Markco, Mar 28, 2012. | Replies: 59 | Views: 5076

  1. Markco

    Markco IncGamers Member

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    How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    Personally, I'll be happy to buy the materials/gold that botters toss on the auction house for super cheap (that's what botters tend to do in most games) and then use those things to craft and sell other items (a crafting bot would be a thrill to see lol).

    That's what I would (will) do, but what are your thoughts on botters and how they will affect the economy?

    Here's the latest botting program that was unveiled today:

    http://diablo.incgamers.com/blog/comments/diablo-iii-maphack-and-bot-released

    Hopefully that puts things into perspective. I know Warden isn't out yet and this is just the beta, but botting is definitely going to be possible.

    Note: Hacking is what a lot of ignorant players call botting. Actually, hacking is when you change game files, duplicate items, and mess with the client/server side communication. Botting is when macros and programs play your character for you.
  2. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    I think/hope that people who use 3rd party tools that are against the TOS will get banned at a sufficient rate to make them unprofitable in the long run.

    On a similar note, you might want to not advertise on hacking sites, drawing attention will just earn you a cease and desist order from bliz. What a waste of all your time if your website goes down, although i guess you'll already have lots of people's money by then and no need to provide new content :)


    [TABLE="class: tablebg, width: 100%"]
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    [TD="align: center"]Markco [/TD]
    [TD="width: 100%"] [TABLE="width: 100%"]
    [TD="class: gensmall, width: 100%"] Post subject: Automating RMAH [​IMG]Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:06 pm [/TD] [/TABLE]
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    [TD="class: profile"] [TABLE="width: 150, align: center"]
    [TD="class: postdetails, align: center"]User[/TD] [TD="align: center"][​IMG][/TD] [/TABLE]

    Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 4:21 pm [/TD]
    [TABLE="width: 100%"] Hey all. has started work on an auction house viewer, with the goal for creating a tool that automates finding deals on the rmah and gold ah. The biggest hurdle he's facing is how to get around comparing items and their value. One item with the same name could have completely different stats! I wrote up my own solutions as well as more about the tool here: [removed] Do you have any suggestions? _________________ Learn about my guides and blog at: Http://www.********************* [/TABLE]
    [/TR]
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  3. Eagle

    Eagle IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    It's unlikely we'll ever be able to tell how much of an impact they have. We can't know how many people are using them and how much. We have no stats on how many people Blizzard catch and ban. We have no "bot free" baseline to compare against the game "with however much botting occurs".

    It's a non-issue issue really, they'll be part of the economy as a whole. A part we really can't quantify in any meaningful way so there's little point in worrying about it. The economy as a whole will settle where ever it settles as in every other online game, all of which suffer from botting to various extents.

    I guess it's only an issue for people that think farming to make themselves rich is viable. Farmers don't make money unless they do it on a massive scale. Even without botters I believe this would remain true. The money is always in trade.
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2012
  4. Naviaras

    Naviaras IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    "Machines making (playing) Machines... how perverse." -C3PO

    All Botting does is shift the supply/demand curve. More items means lower prices, which leads to lower profits. It also means that gold and material inflation will grow quicker than it would without bots. This will lead to low priced real money items and overpriced gold items. Truly epic gear will still go for a high prices but everything else will be pushed down.

    It also means that anyone who is looking to make a sizable amount of money of the D3 AHs will be forced to use bots.

    I personally think that Blizzard will try to crack down on it, even if it is only for PR reasons. The most valuable commodity a company has is its reputation. Once tarnished to takes a lot to rebuild it. While allowing botting won't hurt the bottom line since Blizzard takes a cut of all Real Money sales it would reduce the life span of the RMAH. It all depends on what Bobby wants, a quick buck now or less money over a longer period.

    I'm not saying that botting will kill the RMAH. It would just change it to a means of securely selling high value items.

    As a casual player, play less than 12 hours per week, without tons of disposable income I will stay away from the RMAH if botting become prevalent. While I might check the gold GAH I don't think I will be able to afford the items after rampant gold inflation sets in.

    D1 multiplayer was broken by duping. I got tired of seeing people running around with "Godly Plate of the Whale" and perfect "Obsidian Rings of the Zodiac".

    D2X multiplayer was broken by botting and duping. Rune words that where supposed to be rare became common. That completely changed how people played. Knowing that you will get an "Enigma" completely changed how you built your character.

    D3 Unknown.

    I will probably resort to what I did in D2. I'll make a small group of friends and never play with anyone else. I like the idea of earning my items and I want to play with people who share that ideal.

    I hope Blizzard makes the right choice. Otherwise my disgust of botting will lead me to take longer and longer breaks from the game.
  5. Markco

    Markco IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    @Eagle I agree 100% with your conclusion.

    @Naviaras I think that Blizzard understands your position and wants very much to satisfy your needs. They would love it if you had a change of heart and used the RMAH, even if it's just selling.

    For anyone who is going "doom and gloom" on the recent botting revelations, keep in mind that warden IS NOT running on the beta right now. If anything, Blizzard is learning from the hackers at the moment.

    @VileDevil I am getting fed up with the childish behavior here at Diablo 3 Markets. I have not had ONE POST where the people here didn't make rude comments such as the one you just submitted. I don't even mention my site but you guys somehow decide it's worth bringing up in every single conversation. I don't understand the logic behind advertising (even negatively) a site you don't want mentioned.
  6. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    we'll see how you feel when your site gets shut down then smart ***. my comment wasn't rude, it was actually helpful. you're an idiot to advertise on hacking sites and you should take it for what its worth and not act childish when someone tries to help you.

    you reap what you sow bozo.
  7. Nizaris

    Nizaris Clan Officer - US West Hardcore

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    I don't disagree with your sentiment regarding those who bot, but I do disagree with your definition of what a hack is, as many bots use programming that incorporates features that are defined as a hack. The language is designed to circumvent security measures and exploit weaknesses.

    Many old bots used packet injection/spoofing/etc. So I wouldn't call people who call botting as hacking as "ignorant." And the act of hacking I have even more issue with, simply because it widens the scope even further.

    For more info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hacker_(computer_security)

    Not meaning to derail the thread or anything...
  8. Smips

    Smips IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    I think that duping was by far the greater evil in destroying the D1 and D2 economies. As long as duping remains impossible, I don't think botting will ruin the AH in D3. This does hinge on botting in Inferno being (at the very least) extremely difficult though.
  9. robotxtacy

    robotxtacy IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    I would be very surprised if warden or w/e other anti-cheat blizz uses for d3 keeps botting from happening. One thing a lot of people don't realize is that a lot of the really creative and good coders that come out with these bots are not doing it for money or to farm items and play d3, but are interested solely in the challenge of creating an effective bot. They get a lot of enjoyment out of that. The harder it is to create a working bot the more rewarding it is for a lot of these people.

    An interesting side note I saw a conversation on irc with a lot of people cleaning up the code of the current working bot out right now and most of them were completely unaware of the rmah changes. That the minimum listing fee is 1.50 and blizz takes a 1.25 cut etc. They were floored and a few didn't even believe it. Many were under the impression that items would be selling dirt cheep 1-2 dollars in most cases and blizz would be taking .10 cent cuts on that etc.
  10. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    If boting will be rampart, gold value will be rock bottom, inflation will be explosive, gold will not be worth selling in RMAH unles in HUGE quantities, so, RMAH will lose a good chuck of deals for gold...Blizz loses money.

    Imagine the following :
    -a non-boting player can make 10,000 gold / hour usualy playing 2 hours / day.Gold made per day = 20,000.
    -a boting player can make the same, but he can play 24/7.Gold made per day = 240,000.
    Now, the gold in RMAH cannot be listed for less than 1,5 $ / auction made.The initial gold price (before boting) was 20,000 gold for 1,5 $.
    The non-boting players (assuming ALL before boting comes) would produce : 5 million players x 10,000 gold/hour x 4 hours/day = 200,000,000,000 gold / day.


    200 billion gold / day before botting.20,000 gold sold for 1,5 $ before botting would mean (assuming ALL players will sell their gold) that the RMAH will have everyday gold worth 15,000,000 $.

    If 5% of the player will use bots, that means that 250,000 bots will produce : 250,000 x 240,000 gold/day = 60,000,000,000 gold.
    Now we will going to have 95% of the non-boters gold : 190 billion gold PLUS 60 billion from botters, which will mean that RMAH will have everyday gold worth (@ 20,000 per 1,5$ - this is imposible, but its needed as figure to show the impact) 18,750,000 $.

    Assuming a scenario where ALL the gold is sold everyday, in the non boting scenario, all the players will spend 0.33 $ each and this is all they are willing to spend.Once 5% of the players will use bots, in order to sell ALL the gold everyday, BUT the players will spend the SAME 0,33 $ each, or 15 million $ all, 250 billion gold will worth, in $, as much as 200 billion before boting, which mean that with 1,5 $ a player would buy 20% more gold (24,000 g instead 20,000 g).

    Now, this is not much, gold will drop 20% in value, botters will sell, and will buy more accounts to run more bots.Unchecked, this will lead to 30% or more of the player base being boters.If at 5% gold will lose 20% value versus $, at 30% the gold will lose about 20% each time 5% more boters are in game.At 5% botters : 1,5$ = 24,000 gold.At 10% boters : 1,5 $ = 28,800 gold.At 15% boters : 1,5$ = 34,560 gold.At 20% botters : 1,5$ = 41,472 gold.At 25% botters : 1,5$ = 49,766 gold.At 30% boters : 1,5$ = 59,719 gold.

    So, if 30% of the 5 million are using bots, the gold value dropped 2,98 times (round up to 3 times).The problem here is that boters will chase away the non-boters, ending up selling the gold not 3 times less, but 2 times less, or even at SAME rate as before there were non boters.

    The problem is that Diablo 3 have 2 Auction houses, and not one.GAH will see EXPLOSIVE pricing of everything.The devaluation of gold in RMAH will be felt in GAH with an inflation higher then 3 times more (300%), probably 500% inflation or even more for some items.And this in very short time.

    In other words, GAH transactions will DROP (a rampart inflation paired with the limited non-boter time to make gold) will see less and less transactions over time.The majority of players will play less and less, the interest in AH will drop, triggering the same effect on RMAH.

    Soon, the entire Diablo 3 economy (3-4 months) will be destroyed, Blizzard losing ALOT of money.

    This will transform Diablo 3 into a Diablo 2 with much better graphics.And this will be it.

    Boting will be FIERCELY countered by Blizzard.I expect account bans, IP bans, and if necesary, entire COUNTRIES IP's baned.Blizzard is DEAD ON on making a lot of money from RMAH, and anything perceived as a danger to this, will be swiftly dealt with.
  11. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    "Now, the gold in RMAH cannot be listed for less than 1,5 $ / auction made"

    You really don't know what your talking about do you ? gold can be listed for min 0.01 per thousand as long as the total value of the sale is $1.00
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2012
  12. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    While semakka has a lot to say, his speculations can usually be summarized thus far is that gold is not viable and botting will rule the day. Nothing we haven't seen many times over.

    Of course he does use a wall of text to crit. our eyes while doing it, so it is amusing for the time being.
  13. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    I know, didn't read most of it. Got bored after two paragraphs xD


  14. Bloomberg

    Bloomberg IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    I would not be concerned much about botting done on small scale (average Joe running a couple/several bots to make some profit), mostly because:

    1.) Warden-immune bots won't be much available to the public, and
    2.) The market will be so big, that it won't affect the economy/inflation much, nor will it have any noticable impact on the pool/price of rare items available on the AH's (we probably won't see bots farming inferno, or even hell, for quite some time).

    But where the true evil lies, is the several dozens of the BIGGEST companies with their own botnets, each deploying hundreds of farming & AH bot accounts.

    They did it on WoW, and they will most definitely try to do it on D3 - even more so as it will be ALOT easier to pull off (RMAH), and cheaper to maintain (no monthly fees), in comparison to WoW.

    Some of you guys maybe fail to realize what sort of impact a good few hundred of AH bots can have on the auction houses..

    •• Gold sales on the RMAH ••
    Once the companies have stashed enough gold (eg. practically unlimited supply), your chances of making a GOLD -> $$$ sale on the RMAH will be nearing ZERO. The answer to the why question is actually quite simple.. You can not compete with the undercut potential of automated AH bots, even less so when there is hundreds of them all at the same time, all with a 24/7 duty cycle.

    Meaning, that as soon as you put some gold up for grabs on the RMAH (at a better price than the current going rate), you can be quite sure that if it won't sell in the first fractions of a second (by pure luck), it will NEVER sell, because it will also take just fractions of a second for one of the AH bots to allready undercut your offer by some maginal amount.

    In short - after a while, the big boys with their "sophisticated" AH bots (+ sufficient supply), will have an almost absolute monopoly on all of the RMAH gold sales. It is sad, but this is how it most likely will end up being, unless Blizzard applies some sort of mirraculous countermeasures (very unlikely).

    -----------------

    •• Crafting materials/gems/etc. sales on the GAH ••
    As the hordes of farmer bots will mostly be grinding some easy/medium areas (24/7) for a steady influx of gold, they will quite surely gather wast amounts of junk magic items/gems (etc.) in the proccess. Unless the market for crafting mats is totally overflooded (unlikely), most of these items will be salvaged and offered on the GAH for some extra profit - again by the pesky AH bots.

    Apart from pushing the prices of those goods down, this in the longer run will also probably lead to an almost-monopoly for this kind of commodity on the GAH (because after a while the price will be so low that actually noone except the botters will bother to put it up).

    -----------------

    We know that the botters probably won't be able to farm for those highly demanded rare drops.. BUT!

    After some time, they will have wast amounts of gold stashed, as it is unlikely that their supply of gold will be bested by the demand for gold on the RMAH (their only "gold sink" being the RMAH demand).

    So it begs the question: "What will they use this over-supply of gold on?"

    And the answer is: "On the VERY BEST ITEMS available at the GAH" (!)

    With all these items wandering straight to the RMAH (undercutting all other available offerings, and keeping them "under-cut"), this could create a quite nasty feedback loop, which in the longer run could actually lead to the "big boys of the bot-bussiness" having a RMAH monopoly on the sale of TOP TIER ITEMS aswell.

    So as it stands now, the "bad guys" would have a:
    1.) Monopoly on RMAH sales of gold (very likely) (short horizon)
    2.) Almost monopoly on GAH sales of crafting mats (direct consequence of farming for gold) (short/medium horizon)
    3.) A possible monopoly on RMAH sales of top tier items (consequence of farming/acquiring more gold than there is demand for on the RMAH) (long horizon)

    In case the big guys manage to pull it off, it looks like the future of small/medium D3 salesmen is quite grim at best.. :hang:

    PS: Haha, sorry for the wall of text.. :dopey: :action-smiley-061:
  15. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    Blizzard and thr warden system will not allow this, all botters will get banned.
  16. Bloomberg

    Bloomberg IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    Of course. One can clearly see how good that is working on WoW...

    Where the heck is the facepalm smiley when one needs it... :action-smiley-061:


  17. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    This is not wow, wow does not have a warden system or RMAH


  18. Bloomberg

    Bloomberg IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy

    Yes, exactly.. D3 is not WoW. The botters will have it actually HEAPS easier in D3, than in WoW.

    And since when does WoW not have the Warden? Did the sneaky bastid devs uninstall it? :crazyeyes: /facepalm


  19. PearlOrion

    PearlOrion IncGamers Member

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  20. Enlil

    Enlil IncGamers Member

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    Re: How Will Botting Effect the Economy


    Fine, then you go and bot. I'll remember your post when I see articles about botters being banned and losing all there gear/real money I will be LMFAO, and good luck trying to make a bot work in inferno "where the money is" inferno will be to hard for any bot.


    No playeys will be able have have a monopoly over the market, by the time all gems/gold/mats have been bought up, players would have listed a vast amount of new gems/gold/mats. Monopoly only works when you can control the supply of something entering the market. These bot companies would need to invest a vast amount of real money daily to keep there control over the market.

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but from your comments I can tell your not as smart as you think you are. ROFL You think you've got it all figured out lol

    Go run your bots, can't wait till I hear about botters getting banned.
    You will soon see how wrong you were about everything.

    From Blizzards terms of service:
    Using cheats, automation software (bots), hacks, mods or any other unauthorized third-party software designed to modify the Service, any Game or any Game experience.

    Enjoy being banned !


    Last edited: Apr 26, 2012

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