Latest Diablo 3 News
DiabloWiki Updates
Support the site! Become a Diablo: IncGamers PAL - Remove ads and more!

Help me figure this one out...

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 General Discussion' started by InsaneAction, Nov 28, 2012. | Replies: 10 | Views: 875

  1. InsaneAction

    InsaneAction IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2012
    Messages:
    149
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    42
    Everything below takes place on MP5:

    Act1 Key Warden runs: 4 runs, 3 keys
    Act2 Key Warden runs: 3 runs, 3 keys

    Act3 Key Warden runs: 8 runs, 2 keys :scratchhead: dafuk?
  2. BYHC

    BYHC IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2012
    Messages:
    193
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    26
    I did 12 runs at mp5 for all acts and got 12 keys, then I did 5 runs at mp8 with zero keys.

    Nothing's wrong!
  3. Karth

    Karth IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    1,565
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    165
    Warning: random numbers may be randomized randomly.
  4. beingmused

    beingmused IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2009
    Messages:
    531
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    121
    You did 15 runs, 50% chance to drop a key each time, expected would be 7.5 keys over 15 runs. You got 8. You're slightly beating expectations, good job.
  5. InsaneAction

    InsaneAction IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2012
    Messages:
    149
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    42

    Take Act1 and 2 out of the maths... just look at the 8 runs only yielding 2 keys... The part I put in bold. I understand that it's a 50% chance to drop.


    I guess I should have made it a little more clear... Why is it that only Act 3 gives me trouble when it comes to getting that d*** key?
  6. Karth

    Karth IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    1,565
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    165
    Going six runs in a row without finding a key on mp5 will still happen over 1% of the time. You're not yet defying probability. XD
  7. korialstraz

    korialstraz IncGamers Site Pal

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2007
    Messages:
    5,848
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Not sure about how low the chances are of this happening, but around 28 MP1 runs, 4 MP2 runs and I think 2 MP3 runs. 2 keys in total. >_>
  8. Crensh

    Crensh IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2012
    Messages:
    11
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    1
    What seems to be a problem?
  9. darkstarhub

    darkstarhub IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2011
    Messages:
    377
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    123
    I say you should consider yourself lucky.
  10. Tomsch

    Tomsch IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    171
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    41
    4/10, well done
  11. monitorman

    monitorman IncGamers Site Pal

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2003
    Messages:
    71
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    26
    I had a key drop from the Act 3 Warden in a public game, MP0.

Share This Page