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Gold Only on RMAH

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Market & Economy Discussion Forum' started by Eeryck, Apr 12, 2012. | Replies: 36 | Views: 3048

  1. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Gold Only on RMAH

    So the more and more that I think about the D3 economy I keep coming to the same conclusion, that over a fairly short time the RMAH will only become a place to sell gold.

    I suspect there is something I am missing and there will be reason that other items will go up.

    Here are my thoughts:

    1. Gold AH will be used by all players
    2. Gold AH will be where most commodities are traded and re-traded (crafting materials, gems, etc)
    3. Easier to absorb any gold transaction fee due to gold being disconnected from Real Money (mentally only)
    4. Gold AH has more buyers so it is easier to get a high gold price for something
    5. Gold AH economy will eventually stabilize due to large volume of users with either a fixed rate of inflation or deflation based on gold income vs gold sinks and expanding or declining player base.

    So for the people that play the economy, it would seem that you would want to control the gold cost of items and then sell gold on the RMAH. Trying to create and manage a sub-economy of top tier items on the RMAH does not seem particularly wise in maximizing profit.

    What am I missing?
     
  2. Blackstream

    Blackstream IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    Transactions worth over 250 dollars will be doable through the GAH too.
     
  3. galzohar

    galzohar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    The thing is, if you buy gold and then use the gold to buy an item you are hit by the fee twice, paying more than if you just bought the item on the RMAH. That's already enough of a reason to put up items on the RMAH, of course if we assume people really will be spending real money in the first place.

    I agree, though, that it would be more comfortable to only trade gold on the RMAH and trade the rest on the GAH, but since it has a hefty cost I doubt that it'll kill non-gold RMAH trading.
     
  4. nuhertz

    nuhertz IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    The real reason you wouldn't want to do this, is because of how the fee on the RMAH works. Flat $1.25 vs 15%. You will lose less of your "investment" with an item vs gold on high priced items.
     
  5. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    What your are missing? Well, A LOT.

    No offence, but your understanding of economics is limited, so i will try to answer in simple terms why you are wrong.

    1.Gold AH will be used by all players.
    Yes, all players that will sell or buy will use the GAH...but some of them will use the RMAH also.

    2.Gold AH will be where most commodities are traded and re-traded (crafting materials, gems, etc).
    Not entirely true.First, GOLD is one of the commodities because it can be sold in RMAH.Second, some crafting materials (few, not all, but still some) will worth too much gold, and so, some sellers will list them in RMAH.Not saying that will be more or less than GAH (we don't know yet), but will be a fraction.Third, a number of high lvl gems (lvl 9, 10 up to 14) will be listed in RMAH, because they will worth too much gold to be listed in GAH.How many of them, we don't know, but a fraction will be sold in RMAH.

    3.Easier to absorb any gold transaction fee due to gold being disconnected from Real Money (mentally only)
    Plain wrong.Gold is NOT disconnected from RMAH, ESPECIALLY mentally.Ask anyone about what can be sold in RMAH and most will start with the word "gold".

    4. Gold AH has more buyers so it is easier to get a high gold price for something.
    And will also have more sellers, so it is easier to get a lower gold price for something.See what i did here?I just used your first point to prove you are wrong.

    5. Gold AH economy will eventually stabilize due to large volume of users with either a fixed rate of inflation or deflation based on gold income vs gold sinks and expanding or declining player base.
    A large number of users does not mean GAH will stabilize.A proper rate of item drops, gold drops and reliable gold sinks will do it.RMAH will also have a LARGE number of users (let's say only 10% will use RMAH (mostly sellers, but you will get the point) still means 500,000 users.
    WoW servers have 2,000-4,000 users / faction and have a quite stable AH.A fixed rate of inflation or deflation...not going to happend.Main reason is that one month inflation might be 30%, next month 5%, next one 15%...in the best case, because the inflation will probably be modified weekly or even daily.


    However, what you really missed is ITEMS and the true VALUE of some of them (legendary, perfect rares, lvl 14 gems).Those items will have a REAL MONEY value, and while i do not exclude that some players will post a legendary in GAH, the price will be ridicously high in gold, probably in terms of 500-600 hours worth of farming...BUT if that guy will see (and will see) a comparable item in RMAH for 150$, would he be enticed to sell it for gold or real money? I think we both know the answer.

    So no, the RMAH will not become only a place to sell gold.
     
  6. mickptd

    mickptd IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    how much gold for 2 sorc/10cfr/2x str/2x dex/1x all res amulet? :)
     
  7. galzohar

    galzohar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    The RMAH will become a place to only sell gold IF no items that are worth more than 4.5$ drop. Once items are worth more than 4.5$, they're worth listing on the RMAH. 4.5$ or less, and you're better off selling them on the GAH and then selling the gold on the RMAH. This is all due to the 1.25$ fee for items and 15% fee for gold on the RMAH, and 15% overall fee on the GAH.
     
  8. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    Quite passionate aren't we. My understanding of Economics is really quite good on both the Macro and Micro side and if you would be so kind to use reasonably intelligent language I wouldn't consider you such a troll!

    The entire basis of your argument is that there will not be enough gold sinks in the game. This is still to be determined. Further RMAH is limited to $250 cap. So there is really a greater limit on how much you can sell things for on the RMAH than the gold AH.

    For most people playing the game, GAH will become something they commonly use. If gold is balanced, they will constantly want for more gold to buy more items. Most likely forgetting that they can sell excess gold because they will rarely have any. Yes I do believe that Blizzard will have enough gold sinks to keep gold viable.

    Ahhh, but you really missed the point. The rarity of the item limits the number of sellers. Since there are a number of people that are adverse to RMAH, the GAH offers opportunity to reach the largest audience. Then you sell your gold.

    Check your facts on WoW, quite often someone has come along and gotten gold capped while destroying a servers economy. I should have said a measurable rate of inflation. You have still not made any reasonable arguements and your post largely restated what I said anyway, was this really a counterpoint?

    I still don't see where you have made a reasonable point. Also, what about the $250 dollar cap on RMAH. Sure day 1 some of the legendaries will show up on RMAH. I just think that once the economy sorts itself out, say 3-months time or so, that most only thing on RMAH will be gold with all items and materials going to gold AH. Of course there will be a rare poster that puts up an item but with the direct link between gold and money, it still seems to me that overtime it will go to gold only on RMAH.


     
  9. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    Yeah I thought about this. On the other hand, based on the extra fee, if the price is padded on the gold AH this would be offset.

    The main reason that I just keep thinking about this is that since gold and money are tied and they will be measured and updated constantly by external sites, it becomes a known quantity. So if you were going to sell something for $10 dollars and 1000 gold = $1 it would seem that you post for 10,000 gold (plus buffer to cover 15% fee) Then sell your 10,000 gold.

    Sure in this way you may make slightly less profit if you get your buffer wrong but, both sales transactions should complete much more quickly. If you are looking to make any money in D3 you are going to have to do a high volume of transactions. Since there are people who are looking to make money the system will become optimized.

    Since gold = money, it seems like it would be most prudent to get market value from the GAH and turn around and sell the gold. Of course this all breaks down if gold is not balanced.


     
  10. galzohar

    galzohar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    You have to think in terms of "how much it costs the end-user, aka buyer". He'll buy the cheapest he can get. You can't just increase the price and expect him to pay up, as if you can do that on the GAH, you could have done it on the RMAH as well, and maybe even break the 4.5$ line to make it even more worthwhile to you (note that buyers don't care about the 4.5$ line).

    I really hope gold won't get inflated, because then gold and GAH will be useless, and the only items we can trade are items that are expensive enough for people to bother placing them on the RMAH, or of course old-school D2-style trading for a new currency (say gems or essences).
     
  11. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    When it comes to BiS items the price will be set by the seller and his patience and to some degree what the market will bare. All other item prices should flesh out to be some fraction of the BiS item price dependent on rarity. (With minor variation depending on under-cutting or temporary rarity and seller patience)

    Further my thoughts do consider how much it will "cost" the end user. Gold purchases only cost me time that I was going to play the game anyway and will always be cheaper than a RM transaction. My time is already a sunk cost, so any item that I buy off the GAH will be inherently cheaper than buying it off the RMAH with respect to real world cost.

    This is further compounded by the fact that if there were two identical BiS items, one on the GAH and one on the RMAH and they were selling for the same amount, when you consider the Gold to RM exchange rate. I am going to buy supplemental gold, since I already have some of my own and buy the item from GAH because it will be cheaper in real cost.

    It is my argument that this type of behavior will be noticed by sellers and they will have a better avenue to sell through the gold AH then turn the gold around on the RMAH.

    I agree, I think Blizzard understands this as well and will keep gold viable.


     
  12. capnlarge

    capnlarge IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    If Blizzard really wants gold to take off they will include useless flair crap that you can spend gold on. Dyes are a step in the right direction. If we could banner swag or hair/skin colours with gold... Cha Ching!

    Or maybe some sort of gold spending Achievement?
     
  13. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    The underlining is made by me (obvilously).I would to keep it short, but i can't (one of my bad sides).

    "over a fairly short time"...how much? Can i assume 3 months pls, just for having a number.
    "so it is easier to get a high gold price for something"...how much easier ? And how HIGH gold price ?

    You do understand that MORE buyer does NOT mean higher prices ? It works in real world, but not works in games.In real world, if the prices for "something", and i assume something that is needed, let's say bread, rise TOO much, the governmets just PRINT more money, rising the payouts, so people will NOT starve.The gov. can PRINT as much as they want.

    In Diablo, the volume of gold is LIMITED.Assuming ALL Diablo 3 players get's to lvl 60, play ONLY those max level characters, ALL are very skilled to kill things and ALL are having top-gear...they can only prouce as MUCH as they can, reaching a CAP.You CANNOT kill more monsters, hence getting their gold drops and vendoring all item drops (the ONLY 2 sources of gold), then the gear allows you to do.

    In other words, the prices in gold in Diablo 3 can ONLY inflate to a rate equal with the rate of NEW gold injected into economy, and NOT because there are more buyers.

    Example :

    100 sellers and 900 buyers (10% - 90% ratio).Those 900 guy are playing 24/24 making 1,000,000 gold / day, and they are all lvl 59.Once they reach lvl 60 they can make, let's say 2,000,000 gold / day.
    When they were producing 1,000,000 a day, the 100 sellers are selling "something" for 100,000 gold.The buyers can ONLY buy 10 of those "something".
    When they can produce 2,000,000 / day, will they buy 20 of those something for 100,000 per OR 10, BUT at 200,000 gold per?
    The sellers WILL increase the price by 100% (not in SAME day ofc, but you get the ideea) so they can make SAME profit.

    Hmmm...there are NO MORE buyers (900) but WTF, the prices had risen...This is because the prices CANNOT increase only because there are more buyers...those buyers NEED MORE gold to buy those "something" otherwise the price will NOT rise.

    If i sell bread IRL, for 1$ each, a guy that can spend only 100$ / month for bread will ONLY buy 100 breads from me.If i RISE the price to 2$ (because my electric bill went double, the gas went double and the my employees are paid double) the guy who can spend 100$ for bread will ONLY buy 50 breads.Soon i go out of business...but here come the gov and PRINTS 100 trillions $, the income is doubled and the guy will have now 200$ for bread which allows him to STILL buy 100 breads.

    But the $ will LOSE 50% of his previous value.

    In Diablo, we can SPEND as much gold as we produce.Prices will RISE if the buyers will HAVE the gold to support this price rise.If the prices will rise SO MUCH, the gold will become WORTHLESS, hence no point to sell it in RMAH.Why no point you ask ? Well, we produce 1,000,000 gold a day and 1,000,000 gold is worth 10$, but next day we produce 2,000,000 gold we will sell those 2 mil for SAME 10$.The parity of gold / $ will rise in favor of $, one of the COMPONENTS of D3 economy (GAH) become a trash selling space...BUT will also make the ITEMS sold in RMAH very EXPENSIVE, ultimately destroying the RMAH sales volume and ultimately the game economy.

    Soooooooooooooo...which of your statements is WRONG :

    The one who states that "over a fairly short time the RMAH will only become a place to sell gold." (meaning that the gold will be WORTHY), or
    "Gold AH has more buyers so it is easier to get a high gold price for something"(meaning that the gold will be UNWORTHY) ?

    Choose one, pls.

    If you understand economics, but contradict yourself in SAME post...you must be lacking the time, will or the ability to write.Since i see words in your OP, you have the ability...you lack time maybe, but you had time to write the OP.Maybe you miss the will to write? Nope, that's not it.You already had the will to write the OP.

    Must be the lack of economic knowledge, or you were high.


     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2012
  14. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    To clarify is better terms for you my hypothesis and reason for making this thread was:

    HYPOTHESIS - over a fairly short time the RMAH will only become a place to sell gold.

    I then added some conditions that should be discussed that may support my hypothesis:

    CONDITION 4 - Gold AH has more buyers so it is easier to get a high gold price for something

    You seem to take exception to condition 4 so let me clarify. Since there are more potential users of the GAH than the RMAH there is potentially greater demand for any given item of limited supply. When supply is limited and there is more demand the price goes up.

    To clarify what I meant about a "high gold price" was relative to the gold to RM exchange rate. Meaning to be explicitly clear, that the price for a limited supply item would fetch a higher price on the GAH when compared to the price on obtained on the RMAH after the gold to RM going exchange rate is taken into consideration.

    Was this necessary?

    Edit: I am also making the hypothesis with the condition that gold is the most viable means of mass exchange of items, which I believe that Blizzard intends to make happen and is capable of. If you disagree here then there is really no point in you continuing to take part in this thread.


     
  15. jwfcp

    jwfcp IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    each player is their own nation state and they can print their own gold from their paypal account :p

    see by limiting the number of sale slots available, item sellers (both rmah and gold ah) will be much more hesitant to undercut eachother. lets say you undercut someone, tomorrow when his expires, he is going to relist and undercut you for one gold, just to spite you. you wasted a day of his limited pool of item listings, now he is going to return the favor and neither of you have made a sale, the buyers can smell the blood in the water, theyll wait for you two to bludgeon eachother down to half what the first guy had listed for. buyers need to be smart. that first eaglehorn you get will be in a remarkably different market than the second or third- treasure it. there are a million people in line to get that item, the first 20 paid 50 million gold for theirs, why wouldnt the next 999980 find it to be worth just as much? maybe those 20 were the only ones who have the 50 mil? they made their fortune selling everyone else some mid level set item that hit the sweet spot between rare and desireable. maybe after another week of farming people will sit back and take stock- "I only made 15 mil this week, I can farm another half a month, or I can lay down a cool fourteen dollars and push ahead to greener pastures, now". by holding out, you can get top price for a wider time frame than people would assume- so long as everyone plays it cool. once prices start dwindling, then the normal course of play for a casual is enough to buy top gear and the wheels fall off the whole economy
     
  16. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    This is only true if items are not truly rare. In games where duping is not possible, the rarest items have appreciated over time at a rate faster than inflation from farming the primary currency.

    So yes in my speculation I am hanging my hat on Blizzard having good solutions to its past transgressions, time will tell.


     
  17. jwfcp

    jwfcp IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    I would think the bottom will fall out fast on the common blue +str/+mf "good enough" pieces, its those top end items that everyone is dreaming of, and saving for.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2012
  18. riptide

    riptide IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    Eeryck, One thing you seem to overlook is that you have the option to cash out directly to your paypal account. Thereby avoiding the $250.00 cap. You must also have forgotten that you can sell items for several hundreds of dollars and in rarer cases thousands. If you're not allowed to purchase directly from your paypal account,in game , then people will do 3rd party trades still. But, I don't see blizzard preventing that option, because it's on paypal at that point and Blizzard still gets their cut.
     
  19. semakka

    semakka IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    @Eeryck.Damn, you keep on same way lol.

    "You seem to take exception to condition 4 so let me clarify. Since there are more potential users of the GAH than the RMAH there is potentially greater demand for any given item of limited supply. When supply is limited and there is more demand the price goes up."


    "more potential users of the GAH" (users of GAH = buyers + sellers ) contradicts "greater demand" for "limited supply" (more buyers than sellers)."When supply is limited and there is more demand the price goes up" - thank you for stating the obvious lol, but that does not mean that GAH will have a buyer / seller ratio of 9:1 or 2:1 or whatever you think will be, but more buyers than sellers.

    If you base your theory on the fact that GAH will use only Gold, and no real money fees, and thus will encourage MORE players to use the GAH...well, this will attract MORE sellers (since the costs are in Gold not real money), hence, STABILIZING the prices (supply and demand will be almost equal).Even if there are MORE buyers than sellers...a buyer buy 1 thing, but the sellers is selling 10 of those things, so, for a potential 9:1 buyers/sellers ratio, there is STILL no greater demand (900 buyers that buy each 1 thing = 900 things bought, and 100 sellers that sell 10 things = 1,000 things listed - 900 sold, 100 unsold).

    If you admit now that all you wrote in the OP was a HYPOTEHSIS, try not using words like "i keep caming to same conclusion" or "will become ONLY a place to sell gold".

    And anyway, more USERS does not mean more BUYERS and less SELLERS.Pls go to a supermarket.The supermarket is ONE SELLER but the BUYERS are hundreds / thousand or more.Did the prices went up 1,000 times ?
    In Diablo 3 GAH, even assuming that there are 100 times more buyers than sellers (which is totaly stupid) the sellers could match easily the demand, because they can sell each 100 items.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2012
  20. Eeryck

    Eeryck IncGamers Member

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    Re: Gold Only on RMAH

    I will have to check again but I am pretty sure the new ToS from Blizzard will limit RM transactions on the AH to $250, making that the highest in game RM transaction available.

    Sure there might be RM transactions from 3rd party sites that are over the cap, but I don't believe that will really change the way that the two AH in game interact with each other or how the players use them. Of course the first person to get scammed on a large RM transaction from a 3rd party site will become the poster boy for why you should not do that when the game facilities high dollar trades via the GAH with the exchange rate of RM to Gold.

    I have never said there will be more sellers on the GAH. I have always been operating on the premise of item rarity will limit supply. This ultimately limits the quantity of sellers. It is the only way to have anything that is a reasonable or stable market.

    You keep want to bring in consumables and needs into this argument as some sort of economic basis. The market for BiS and near perfect items, the type that would show up on the RMAH are more in kind to a luxury goods type of market.

    You also keep trying to say that I am claiming that you will get a multi-fold return using GAH over RMAH, I am not. I think on the GAH your item would turn around quicker than on the RMAH and it would probably fetch a price that is maybe 1.1 times what you can get on the RMAH after you take into account the additional cost for converting gold to RM.

    Example, Item would sell for $100 on RMAH, it would sell for $125 worth of gold on the GAH maybe. The margins in the game will be thin.

    Because the margins will be thin, the way that people who want to make money in the economy will do it is by doing a high volume sales operation. Due to limitations of number of posting on the AH, there is motivation to turn "rare" items around quickly. Since gold = RM, to a seller it does not matter if you sell for gold or RM because there is an exchange rate that is given and you can set your price accordingly.

    Furthermore, people are more likely to spend a small amount on RMAH and buy some gold that will facilitate the items they want than to dig deeper in their pockets for an item. You see this in the popularity of "gold" selling sites for nearly any MMO that is out these days. Because there is already low social friction to buying an in game currency these transactions will happen with less regret and they also fit the pricepoint more closely to the micro-transaction mindset that is so common today. This then makes gold also a high volume fast transaction.

    In summary, if you have a $100 dollar item and post it on the RMAH you will have to wait till someone who is carrying a Blizzard Balance of that amount comes along to buy it or is willing to put $100 dollars out of their pocket on their Blizzard Balance to buy it. I speculate that this will be a very limited number of buyers.

    However, if you have a $100 dollar item and post it on the GAH for the Gold equivalent of $100 plus 10% plus GAH fees that due to the increased buyers of your "rare" item that it may turn around quicker and for a higher price than sitting around and waiting for the stars to align and it to sell on the RMAH. You can then turn around a quickly sell your gold which I believe will be in fairly high demand on the RMAH. (Well it will be in the demand that the market determines based on balancing of gold drops and item rarity, offset by goldsinks and gold brought in via gold farmers)

    This should have been fairly obvious. I did state, "What am I missing". The whole intent of discussion boards it to have the ability to flesh stuff like this out. Sure I was completely informal in my presentation but this is a game after all, I don't feel the need to be overly serious or formal even if RM is involved. Even the people who have made fantastic claims about how much they are going to make per month are speaking about trivial amounts of money.


     

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