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Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy i

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 General Discussion' started by Xaviar, Aug 26, 2011. | Replies: 135 | Views: 10588

  1. Xaviar

    Xaviar IncGamers Member

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    Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Jay Wilson and the other devs have been asked on many occasions, how they are going to keep Gold valuable, how they are going to deal with item sinks and Gold sinks, and most importantly; how are they going to stop the inevitable item inflation without a binding system.

    They have always given this same answer :
    As for gold: (paraphrased)

    In regards to a binding system, their answer again, has been the 1% analogy (which is beyond stupid IMO). For those who haven't seen it:
    So, is it just me or are these possibly the silliest thoughts and ideas Blizzard have ever made? When you actually analyze how this will work in Diablo, it is littered with flaws and is just plain wrong.

    Firstly, I'll address why the Salvaging to stop inflation can't possibly work, and does not at all stop high-end inflation.

    Salvaging will almost certainly be based on two things, iLvl, and item quality type (ie rare, legendary, magical etc). It really can't be based on anything else, due to how the affix system works.

    Salvaging will NOT take out the best items out of the economy, ever. Why? Because the logic is flawed:
    1) If you have one of the BEST legendary or rare items in the game, WHY ON EARTH would you destroy it for Mats to make another item that has less than 1% chance of being better?
    2) IF the crafted item is guaranteed to be better than your item that you need to salvage, than it DOESN'T SOLVE ANYTHING, because you have "swapped" one item for an even better item, which IS INFLATION.
    3) EVEN IF you don't need the item anymore because you got an upgrade, you would rather sell it for money than salvage it into a material that is worth 1/100th of the items value (since its an excellent item).

    The way people will use salvaging realistically, is they will ONLY salvage high-level items that have crappy stats. Eg. A rare item with really crappy affix rolls on it, but still has a high ilvl. Again, no one is going to salvage one of the best items in the game for some mats. Not when they can sell it for large amounts of money or trade it.

    So that one is completely false, crafting/salvaging will do NOTHING to stop high-end item inflation, period.

    Now for the binding 1% explanation. Firstly for the record, I'm not FOR or AGAINST a binding system at all. I'm just pointing out why this is such a stupid analogy.

    So they are basically saying that the rarest items are so rare, that a binding system would only take out the rarest items out of the game, which is less than 1% of items, therefore binding would only solve 1% of the issue.

    This would have to be the most idiotic thing I've seen Blizzard put out. Why? Because the other "99%" of items don't matter. They are basically items you would interchange every few levels, and also the exact type of items you would salvage or vendor. They are also the types of items that you wouldn't sell for money because no one really wants them. They are in essence, consumable, and have little to no impact on the economy.

    The good, high-end items (the 1%) are the problem. So by combating the inflation of that "1%" of items is exactly what the whole point is. It is irrelevent whether or not the finder equips the item, because someone eventually will, which takes the item out of the economy (if there was a binding system), instead of the item being "permanant" and traveling through the economy indefinitely.

    Inflation is a simple concept - it is caused by a constant supply of items without those items ever leaving the economy. So in other words, as time goes on there will ALWAYS BE MORE of that item, with nothing taking that item out of the economy.

    A bind-on-equip system would stop inflation on high-end items better than anything else that I can think of. This is because you cannot trade it once it is "consumed", hence taking it out of the economy.

    Again, I'm not advocating the binding system, I'm just pointing out how stupid that statement and explanation from Blizzard is.
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2011
  2. Crudesash68

    Crudesash68 IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    I have to agree Xaviar; no one will grind up uniques unless they are common and/or useless. I could see BoE's working in Diablo; they still have sale value, but it cleans the economy once someone uses them, and becomes fodder for salvaging, making that system relevant, something I felt was a concern; that grinders might never use Artisans at all.

    I guess we'll have to see just how good the set mods are on the patterns; if you find a pattern with ED/LL, for example, you can almost make it a mill.
  3. MoneyMike

    MoneyMike IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Thing is though, when someone trades for/buys an item for their toon, isn't that item out of the economy? For something to be 'in the economy', I would think we're only talking about things in the AH or things that you're actively trying to trade. If I go and make a trade to get a legendary axe for my barb, for example, a system that had BoE would mean once I started using it I couldn't trade it again. But even without BoE, why would I trade it again? If we're talking about the best of the best here, then once you've got it you're done upgrading. It's functionally out of the economy since it's in use.

    The only time it would likely come back in to the economy would be if:
    A) I stopped playing my barb and wanted to trade to outfit another character
    B) new, better items have been patched/expansioned in and I now want to upgrade (but in this case, this item no longer represents the best of the best, so should we still consider it?)
    C) I stop playing Diablo altogether and want to get whatever cash I can for my items.

    Am I missing something?

    Also, with the inclusion of character selling, would BoE really take items out of the economy, since presumably any binded items would come with the character?
  4. Crudesash68

    Crudesash68 IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    I imagine absolute BiS items won't be re-traded, but any item could potentially be sold ad infinitum; this also means items that have good sale value will likely never be salvaged.

    As far as what comes with the character, it depends on how the seller handles the gear; obviously, a naked 60 is worth much less than one geared to the teeth, but i wonder if people who sell characters won't take off the gear and sell it piecemeal.



  5. Xaviar

    Xaviar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    The item would still be in the economy regardless of how long you use it. You might decide to quit the game and sell your gear - you might find a better axe - you might reroll a Witch doctor and want gear for him, so you sell all your barb gear etc.

    The point being is that the item is still in the economy and is free to be put into the market at any time. This represents inflation. (its like saying that Inflation for USD isn't an issue because you are saving money in a bank account).

    It is a little bit hard to explain if you didn't study economics - but supply and demand plays a part in why this is.

    Supply and demand is the deciding factor in pricing - supply doesn't decrease if your item is freely trade-able. This means that your item's value will decrease despite you not selling it (because you would theoretically sell it once it reaches a value higher than its perceived worth.) However if it is bound to you, than it is literally out of the market forever, representing deflation.


  6. konfeta

    konfeta IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Enchants, to craft items better suited for your desired build, e-peen, etc.

    As for super uber rare items that have nigh-perfect or better rolled stats, I would be genuinely surprised if there will be more than a few hundred of those.

    They don't need to eliminate inflation. Just slow it down for a looong time. So they can come up with an incentive to permanently eradicate the best items from the economy.


    Though, yes, it will depend on exactly how the salvaging system will work. If you can do all the crafting by picking out a random crappy Inferno drop, they screwed up.
  7. Xaviar

    Xaviar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    But a smart person would sell their high-quality item for a good sum of cash, and buy the Enchant mats, crafting mats etc. It is far superior than dismantling a uber item for mats that you can get from dismantling a similar worthless item with a similar ilvl.

    Except for legendaries. They will indefinitely increase as time goes.


  8. konfeta

    konfeta IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    And that's a bad thing if done slowly enough? Again, Blizzard doesn't need to obliterate inflation. They just need to slow it down until they can come up with a good solution to everyone walking around in epics.

    I am greatly in favor of something similar to Uber Diablo - incentive to sacrifice the strongest/most sought after items for a once in a life time opportunity to gain some very special, awesome, never will appear again item.
  9. MoneyMike

    MoneyMike IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Well as far as breaking down items goes, we don't really know if it's only based on ilvl. Mats for the best crafting might only come from legendaries for all we know.
  10. konfeta

    konfeta IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Or maybe there will be a "proportion," based on item budget - higher affix rolls are required for best materials to have a chance to form.
  11. yovargas

    yovargas IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    I think in the Diablo world, this is pretty inevitable. There will simply be a lot more Windforces available after 1 year than after 1 month. I don't see how it could be any different and still be Diablo.
  12. HardRock

    HardRock IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Right now, I'm working with the same assumption.

    I don't know about you, but if I have to sacrifice one of the best items to make potentially the best item for a slot, then I will do it if I can't find another upgrade for my character.

    I agree, but strictly speaking about items with the same ilvl you will never be guaranteed to get an upgrade from crafting, because of the crafted item's random nature.

    Entirely depends on what recipes I have.

    Also, since we're talking about the top 1% of items, salvaging them should yield the most rare materials possible and so they shouldn't worth a fraction of the items value. If we assume, that the top crafted items will require such rare materials (I think this is a given) and some of them will indeed be BiS items for certain classes, then salvaging should be a good alternative to selling the top Legendaries.

    If these BiS crafted items will require so much materials, that you will have to sacrifice more than one slightly less powerful items, then I think salvaging will be a very good item sink.

    Feel free to correct me if I said something stupid, which I may have done, since it's 3 AM as I write this.


  13. Xaviar

    Xaviar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    This is still irrelevant - you can get high affix rolls but the item can still suck. For example, you get an item that has an awesome fast cast affix, but then it has an attack speed affix on it, than +spell damage affix, and than another physical affix. The item would suck, despite having the best affixes in the game. These are the types of items that would theoretically salvage into the best mats in the game, and are also the most common items in the game. (crappy items are much more common then awesome items)

    It's an unsustainable system in the longterm that leads to items becoming so common that the economy becomes irrelevant. According to Blizzard, drop rates are going to be significantly better in D3 than in D2, so this may turn ugly.

    Again, read above on why that is invalid - you can get salvage mats from similar, worthless items (bad affix combo rolls). This means that items with good stats (aka the one your thinking of salvaging) is worth far more than the materials.

    Point still stands, a valuable item should NEVER be salvaged, since its sell value is almost certainly higher than the materials it will produce.

    Read my above explanation on why it is irrelevant, and does not change anything. Considering the same materials can be attained by salvaging similar items that are worthless (due to not very good affix combo rolls, aka 99% of items), than any item that has excellent stats is worth more.

    No one will salvage the best items period guys. Think about the points I made before using the "but the best recipes require the best items to be salvaged!" argument. It's invalid.


    Last edited: Aug 26, 2011
  14. technoviking

    technoviking IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    inflation is a problem how?

    if an item is going to be worth more in the future compared to now, i wouldn't bother playing. i'll merely buy the item, since i will be better off in the future when i'm done with it and sell it.

    if the value of the item is going to collapse, i might as well farm for it. why pay so much now when i can find it, and when i can't find it i can buy it at a discount?

    i believe this is the design philosophy of blizzard. to make things so vastly depreciated in the future that playing becomes valuable.
  15. Xaviar

    Xaviar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Umm, lack of inflation doesn't cause an items value to appreciate, it causes the value to stay the same. 0 inflation (which is impossible), would cause item value to stay the same while Low inflation (which is what I believe will be best for D3) would cause items to very slowly depreciate.


  16. celbii

    celbii IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    To me it seems as if your basing this off diablo 2 in a sense on how it is overran with items. You have to remember that diablo 2 as an example is overran by hacks and dupes. Even as soon as ladder starts up theres already tons of dupes back on the market.

    If d3 controls dupes and hacks like they say I'm not worried about the economy at all.
  17. Xaviar

    Xaviar IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    My concern is not duping, it's inflation brought on by recent massive growth of chinese farming organisations. In D2, item farming was present, but since then chinese farming has become a billion dollar industry, and has grown at least 10-fold. To add to this problem, D3 will have a RMAH which means chinese farmers will find it lucrative, and do what they do best - farm thousands of items daily and send the economy into huge unnatural inflation.


  18. celbii

    celbii IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Yes and this is why blizz imposed an item listing limit last I checked. That would mean for every amount of X items they would need another $60 dollar account to sell.



  19. Crudesash68

    Crudesash68 IncGamers Member

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Here's a different question; how much will inflation hurt the game, and why?
  20. ABarbarian

    ABarbarian Banned

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    Re: Blizzard's Major Miscalculation - Item inflation/economy

    Binding is not in the game simply because they will make less money. Every decision that went into Diablo 3 has been made by executives that are focused on the bottom line. Diablo 3 will be like a McDonald's happy meal - good for a few minutes until you have to **** it out.


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