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All-time low

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 Market & Economy Discussion Forum' started by SWalker, Jul 21, 2012. | Replies: 34 | Views: 4951

  1. SWalker

    SWalker IncGamers Member

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    Seems like we've hit the all-time low, doesn't it? Maximum burnout after grinding every day after the launch, combined with frustrating game and patch-decisions, and the endgame standstill. On top of that most people have given up, just waiting for the savior patch that might fail pretty hard if the expectations keep rising.

    I'm fairly certain that it will get better, though. Say what you will but the game is addictive and there's a ton of people out there that find it hard to deal with addiction or simply don't bother confronting it. In other words there will continue to be people playing the game, buying and selling items, even if the game itself isn't exactly fixed. The buff to legendaries, successful or not, will bring at least a short term boost to the economy with people frantically trying to make a quick buck. The pause between now and the next patch will also refresh most people, be it casuals or hardcore gamers. As for the long term, PvP will undoubtedly be another solid boost to economy. It will also in my opinion be the most definitive answer to the big question - whether Diablo 3 will live strong or fade away.

    What are your observations and predictions (be it specific or general)?
  2. Moik

    Moik IncGamers Member

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    Observations:
    - Sales died in the butt immediately after the Repair-Cost patch.
    - No one I know in real life has sworn off the game.
    - No one I know in real life is playing more than 50% as much as the first month.

    Predictions:
    - Gold will be above the floor cap come mid-September when college students flush with loans and high speed internet turn to slacking for the first time in their newly-independant lives. As for how much? No idea.
    - Gear prices will rise strongly come mid-September for similar reasons; lots of new, affluent buyers, and all the sellers have quit or been banned. The sales rate may be twice what it is now.
    - In the near term, activity and sales are going to fall off even more strongly because Steam Sales. I've bought a game a day using my RMAH profits. Most everyone with Steam has 5-10 new games to play.

    [Edit: Interesting. Decided to edit out my screenshot since it's so low-res, but there appears to be no option for it...?]
  3. Vahlk

    Vahlk IncGamers Member

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    Blizzard can do all they want to attempt to boost player's moral and thus the economy; but the economy isn't something that blizzard has control over. It seems to belong to the gold farmers/botters IMO.
    I remember 1 day, while searching through the AH and I came across 2 pages full of 1000+ dps weapons out of the blue. All priced above 100million gold. This had lead me to believe that the gold sellers are cycling the self-injected gold through the economy by over pricing; knowing that many players don't have the time or patience to buy these weaps at the current inflated price.

    So instead, they capitalize on the idea of getting the weapon fast via buying gold off their website. Sure, call me a skeptic and all, but considering this has been going on since before RMAH introduced gold selling it seems a plausibility. And my reasoning comes from simple arithmetic. If 1mil gold = 2 dollars, consider the following: For every weapon on the AH that's worth 200million gold, that's on average $400. But why consider Real Money? because the RMAH has a cap of $250. So taken all into consideration, the gold seller's system is flawless because people will buy gold because they want amazing weapons and don't want to wait for the lucky roll, and in the long run, the gold sellers make more Real Money off of the AH then the RMAH, all through the use of their perfectly balanced system.

    Synopsis:
    Gold sellers sell vast amounts of gold, inflating the economy; then post up 200m+ weapons at a given time (When gold value drops, and people get hungry for gold). People purchase gold off their site to buy these items, the sellers get their gold back AND make a giant profit in terms of real money. Rinse. Repeat. Win.
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2012
  4. Ayewyn

    Ayewyn IncGamers Member

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    Just about everyone on my friends list has been offline a month or more. Unless PvP is a hit in a big way this game is dead by the end of the year.
  5. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    things go up and down, dont despair. the mass bannings are awesome and hopefully they will continue until morale improves!
  6. Tenet

    Tenet IncGamers Member

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    I have to think that they only have so many of the "patch 1.xx will fix everything" cards left to play. I also imagine that there's been a huge decline in sales and/or players logging in to prompt Bashiok's end game suckage admission several weeks ago, and now this. If the problems aren't fixed quickly, there won't be much of a player base left to appease. It's really a shame too, because I see D3 as the shell of an excellent game with so much potential. Hopefully it isn't too late to fix.
  7. SWalker

    SWalker IncGamers Member

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    That's an understandably bleak projection but again I'd like to say that the burnout and the significant issues play a huge deal for this decline. Once either one of these factors is resolved there will be people returning to the game even if they play for just a fraction of the time they used to play. I'm fairly confident about this, since the game is not subscription based and it has something to offer that you might miss after taking a proper break.


  8. jamesL

    jamesL IncGamers Member

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    it'll be interesting
    you have "Mists of Pandaria" coming out "soon", so some the WoW players who got D3 for free may leave
    you have Guild Wars 2, Borderlands 2, Torchlight 2, Assassin's Creed III, and Far Cry 3 all coming out 3rd and 4th qtr this year; so I don't see Moik's prediction of college students rushing to the RMAH coming true

    with all those alternatives coming out it'll be difficult for the 1.04 patch or the PvP patch to bring back people who have left; and I'm sure many people will be splitting their time between more than one game

    I'll definitely be here for the PvP; I can't wait; I think it'll be awesome
  9. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    diablo is unique and has no monthly fee.

    also consider that when players return they'll be more likely to gear up on the rmah ;)
  10. SWalker

    SWalker IncGamers Member

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    That's a good argument. Howerver, you should take into account the possibility that some or even most of these games won't live up to their players' expectations and many will realize Diablo isn't half as bad as people make it out to be - it's just bearing the weight of a decade's worth of hype and expectations.

    Most games nowadays, even the better ones, provide content for no more than a week or a month at max, unless their PvP works great which is very hard to achieve.


  11. Moik

    Moik IncGamers Member

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    Not "rushing", "doubling".
    From my personal context that would mean the two items I sell a week would become four items a week. That's all I'm expecting.
    Sales would "jump" to basically a quarter of what they used to be pre-1.03 rather than an eigth of what they used to be (as they are now).

    BL2 and TL2 are for sure going to cut away market share. TL2 is already on my Steam wishlist, and BL2 would be there if it was posted.
    GW2, this weekend was a beta weekend, and the last two races were added, so it's a big one. We'll have to check XFire tomorrow to see what kind of impact that can have.

    Do AC3 and FC3 have strong multiplayer? My gut says the market overlap on those and D3 isn't too-too heavy. If they're largely single player, their impact might only be minor or brief.
  12. Vahlk

    Vahlk IncGamers Member

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    Borderlands 2, Torchlight 2, Guildwars 2; will provide content for way more than 2 weeks. Where as technically speaking, in terms of content, D3 has only provided possible prospect; thus, giving us the illusion of 'more content'.. but lets be honest here. I'm bored of act 1-4; done with it. Still waiting on the 'pvp patch' and that's just because I love competitive play but still, even that will be pay to win. Where as Borderlands, Torchlight, GW will be free, and just way funner because real money isn't involved =\ D3 just feels like that game Blizzard dug up just to fill that slot for source of income.

    All in all, the fan boys can keep on hoping; but this economy has no fix. Ban all the accounts you want; gold sellers will still find a way to inject large amounts of gold into the system. I myself, will play Borderlands II, GW II, and definitely Torchlight II - (What D3 should have been; by the Devs that created the ever so addicting D1/D2) (http://www.cinemablend.com/images/sections/44897/_1342990167.jpg) Don't mean to advertise but c'mon =\ why can't blizz do that? Oh wait because Blizz lost their original Diablo Team... now known as Runic ZIIIINGGG... Everyone's expectation of D3 were not met, and it's just been a great disappointment. I'm just waiting for my RMAH slots to fill up to sell all my MNK gear ;) Then I'll save that for my GW copy


  13. jamesL

    jamesL IncGamers Member

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    I think people will definitely play GW2 for 100's of hours, but I don't think the same is true for the other games

    but then, it doesn't have to be
    all any of those games have to do is provide an alternative (no matter how short) to playing D3 with the new patch

    so you play you play Borderlands 2 a little, then you play TL2 a little, then maybe you try GW2 (maybe you don't like it), so you try Assassin's Creed 3; and before you know it 2013 has rolled around and there are other new games to try

    sure, there will always be a bunch of people who think of D3 as their primary game and view those other games as time-wasters until the PvP patch, but there are others who, once they leave D3, won't come back

    if Blizzard doesn't hook these casual players in the next couple of months they're going to have an even more difficult time once all these other choices come out
  14. mesafalcon

    mesafalcon IncGamers Member

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    I'm not touching GW2 or Borderlands2, but I will be playing Torchlight 2 like crazy.

    I'm a Diablo fanboy, and it seems Torchlight 2 will be more "Diablo" than Diablo 3 is.

    so, basically for me, Diablo 3 has until Torchlight 2 comes out to "fix" some issues, not gonna give up on it that fast.
  15. katzmotel

    katzmotel IncGamers Member

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    Ayewyn nailed it. It's a mediocre game and I would go so far as to say that it has reached the point of no return. A quick visit to D3 forums will prove this point. There will be no comeback with the PVP patch, nor will it be with any other. The game is already dead and Blizz knows it, therefore any further investment of resources would be redundant. Also, consider the release of GW 2, which is heavily PVP oriented and received incredibly good feedback from the community.


  16. Nagafen

    Nagafen IncGamers Member

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    People won't revive the market after the semester if they have no faith in the game. Nobody will want to invest in a sinking ship. Blizzard has one chance to turn this around if they come out with some kind of miracle patch, but I'm hugely skeptical. I think the game's fundamental problems stem from design decisions that can't just be patched away, and I doubt they'll care for the added expense of further development anyway. They already made a lot of money from simply releasing the game, and considering the way Blizzard operates nowadays (contrary to the Blizzard of the past) I can see them just leaving the game to its own devices with an inconsequential token patch every few months. I mean, if you look at the game as a whole, you can already deduce that PvP will be worthless, so that certainly won't save it. Considering the resounding failure of D3's post-launch period, I can't see them making a valiant effort to turn around a non-susbcription game.
  17. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    dont confuse fan boys on sites like this for the majority of players ;) if you want to find out whats really going on wait till the aug 2 conference call. my guess is people will **** bricks when they see how much atvi is making on the rmah.
  18. jamesL

    jamesL IncGamers Member

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    I seriously doubt the conference will tell us what's really going on

    how about a graph of number of items sold per week on the RMAH (has it increased, decreased, remained the same)
    then break the graph up into chunks of items between $1-$10; $10-30; $30-$50; $50-$100; $100-$250
    (so we can get an idea if price is going up or down)

    also a graph of the number of players actually playing the game between the hours of 7pm - 1am NYC time (4pm-10pm Blizzard time) per day since release

    nah, I think the only real number we're going to get is "8 million copies sold, fastest selling game of all time, continues to do well"

    I expect more detail and attention to be paid to the soon to be released Mists of Pandaria


  19. viledevil

    viledevil IncGamers Member

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    i think you will be surprised - they are making a lot more money than people realize and will want to mention it. what you're asking for is great data that they have but will never release :(
  20. Nicodemus

    Nicodemus IncGamers Member

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    Investor conference calls are for investors, not for gamers. And usually even for investors, conference calls are filled with puffery and cheerleading, with little substantive connection to reality.

    That's why there are a number of finance websites dedicated to cutting through all that, basically telling the reader "Here's what they said on the call, but now let's talk about the actual truth".


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