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Since my sorc reached lvl92, in each run I make I have gambled rings at Gheed's and Anya's.
It looks like I spent zillions of gold already, but still the best I got was a Nagelring and a few rares not even worth muling.
What are the odds of gambling a SoJ at Gheed's and Anya's ? I know that the clvl affects the chances. Is the formula known ?
In which case you'd have been better off keeping your sorc a lower level if all you are after is that gambled soj, since now you opened up the possibility for a high level ring as well.
However, a lvl 92 sorcy should be able to run NM Andy quite easily
For an optimum gambling result, the character level has to be L44-48. Above that level, Ravenfrosts and Dwarfstars are possible, reducing the chance for SoJs and below it, SoJs appear with a lesser chance or not at all. At L44-48, 1 in 31 gambled unique rings are Sojs (1 in 16 in a game where either a Nagelring or Manald already dropped and all unique rings in a game where both dropped).
That means, this might be a good SoJ gambling strategy (which does not mean it's a good strategy in general):
1. Do MF until Manald Heal and Nagelring have dropped in the same game.
2. Come in with a L44-48 character and gamble for rings.
3. When all gold is gambled away, let the char do some endless task to perm the game while you are gathering new gold in another game on a second game instance.
You will need an average of 2000 tries in such a game. With an Edge bow and a perfect -price Gheeds, you pay 30% less, i.e. 35,000 gold per try and 70 million gold per SoJ (plus lets's say 20,000 sec = 5.6 hours seconds of gambling time and 200 minutes = 3 hours of gold find and 30 minutes of muling etc.)., i.e. 9 hours of work - providing you finally have such a game. Else it's 16 or 31 as much time and resources !
1 in 31 gambled unique rings are Sojs (1 in 16 in a game where either a Nagelring or Manald already dropped and all unique rings in a game where both dropped).
I do not think this is true. I think the chance would still be 1/31 for any unique ring. If a Manald Heal had dropped in that game and you rolled one when you gamble, won´t you get a failed unique ring then, i.e. a rare ring.
I think someone tested this. He modded the game so every monster dropped a unique ring. From lvl 45 monsters, he would usually get a sequence like this:
Manald
rare
Nagelring
rare
rare
rare
...
..
SoJ
If it had worked like you suggests, he wouldn´t get any rares.
You are right about the optimal character levels, though. The probability that a gambled ring is an SoJ would be 1/2000 * 1/31 = 1/62000
If you are after SoJs only and you have a game like the one I mentioned, this method might lead to quicker successes than doing Andy runs. You can gamble very quickly (once per 5 seconds with a little practice) and you don't have to create new games all the time (except for the gold finder). I guess nm Travincal will produce the most gold per minute and to avoid getting realm down errors, you might clear the nm cow level as well... all in 8 player games, of course.
I wouldn't be surprised if there are bots for that.
For an optimum gambling result, the character level has to be L44-48. Above that level, Ravenfrosts and Dwarfstars are possible, reducing the chance for SoJs and below it, SoJs appear with a lesser chance or not at all. At L44-48, 1 in 31 gambled unique rings are Sojs (1 in 16 in a game where either a Nagelring or Manald already dropped and all unique rings in a game where both dropped).
That means, this might be a good SoJ gambling strategy (which does not mean it's a good strategy in general):
1. Do MF until Manald Heal and Nagelring have dropped in the same game.
2. Come in with a L44-48 character and gamble for rings.
3. When all gold is gambled away, let the char do some endless task to perm the game while you are gathering new gold in another game on a second game instance.
You will need an average of 2000 tries in such a game. With an Edge bow and a perfect -price Gheeds, you pay 30% less, i.e. 35,000 gold per try and 70 million gold per SoJ (plus lets's say 20,000 sec = 5.6 hours seconds of gambling time and 200 minutes = 3 hours of gold find and 30 minutes of muling etc.)., i.e. 9 hours of work - providing you finally have such a game. Else it's 16 or 31 as much time and resources !
This is incorrect. if a manald and nagel have already dropped, you are no more likely to gamble an soj then if you start in a fresh game. For item generation, diablo follows this general procedure (greatly simplified, but in the same order).
1) pick a base type
2) pick a quality level
3) if it has picked an item with multiple of that quality level (unique rings, set belts), take all possible options that can be created at whatever ilvl/qlvl and pick which drops based on it's rarity.
4) if it's unique, check if that item has already dropped. If yes, drop a rare with triple durability (rings have a hidden durability, so you never see this.
since the check for whether a unique has already dropped comes AFTER which unique is picked, a specific unique ring dropping will not increase your chance to get a different unique ring.
What is increased is the chance a second physically dropped unique (not the second attempted drop by the game) will be the different specific one. It is actually less likely that a second unique will physically drop, but the chance for any unique that has not dropped will not change.
[EDIT: cross posted with jiansonz. In that post you see the physical test, my post (poorly) describes the theory.]
Before reading your posts, I was sure (from readings made long time ago) that there was a threshold (which I thought was clvl 92) above which gambling was more worthwhile.
Is the 1:2000 ratio constant, and not dependent on clvl ?
If yes, and I guess it is because I trust you all, I must have made some confusion with something else, maybe crafting.
The good news is, I won't spend time any more gambling systematically. Just once in a while, as gambling should be.
You probably confused it with crafting gambled amulets in order to have a chance of +2 character skills. At clvl 92, 9 out of 10 gambled and then crafted amulets have a chance of getting that +2 skills. (At clvl 91, 6 out of 10 have that same chance).
/brag
Did I mention that I've gambled 2 metalgrids, but never actually found one from a monster or a chest?
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