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  1. #11
    IncGamers Member Clavdivs's Avatar
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    Re: How many copies of D3X will Blizzard sell?

    Divine being is happy to be recognized by Dogbert (clearly a patrician!), instead being called 'pompous'!

  2. #12
    Administrator Flux's Avatar
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    Re: How many copies of D3X will Blizzard sell?

    I can't make a prediction with more specific terms.

    What time frame? First 24 hours? First week? First month? We don't even know what D3X will have for features, yet. Obviously we all have expectations, but how they market it and what they say is coming up and new B.net features, etc, could hugely swing the audience. And are we counting PC sales only, or console also?


    D3 is the 3rd best selling PC game of all time according to wikipedia, with 12m copies Only Sims and Sims 2 have sold more. (D3 is tied with Half Life 2 but as that game is 9 years old and D3 is still selling, it'll obviously move ahead. Minecraft is only 300k behind though, to it might catch up.) I imagine people at Activision and Blizzard reflect on those sales figures and laugh and laugh and laugh and then go for a swim in their gold-plated indoor pools when they hear about 2.1 haterific scores on Metacritic.

    It's impossible to compare D2 and D2X sales since it was over a decade ago when games had much less distribution and penetration. As of 2009 Bliz said the Diablo series had sold 20m copies, but what does that even mean when at the time they'd been selling The Diablo Battlechest for 7 years with the games bundled together for like $30?

    Useful comparisons might be made to WoW expansions which tend to sell about 2m copies in the first 24 hours, which seems to be about 1/2 of the possible audience, as they've had around 5m active subs in the US/EU in recent years. But WoW is an MMO and people paying $15 a month want to keep going, while others are in guilds with pressure to upgrade instantly, etc.

    All those disclaimers given, I'll say 1-2m copies of D3X first 24 hours, and then 3m the first week, PC only.
    --Flux
    The Diablo 1, 2, & 3 Wiki! (Under construction.)


  3. #13
    IncGamers Member Dogbert's Avatar
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    Re: How many copies of D3X will Blizzard sell?

    Quote Originally Posted by Flux View Post
    I imagine people at Activision and Blizzard reflect on those sales figures and laugh and laugh and laugh and then go for a swim in their gold-plated indoor pools when they hear about 2.1 haterific scores on Metacritic.
    Lol i hope they enjoy those gold plated pools

    Speaking of metacritic. Has anyone noticed diablo 3 has a score of 88 there but at the same time only a 3,8 user score. Is this normal?
    http://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/diablo-iii

  4. #14
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    Re: How many copies of D3X will Blizzard sell?

    It's completely normal. These days there is no such thing as a legitimate review site, they're all paid to give high scores on big name games and even if not they only play a game for a few hours... meaning they have no idea how D3 actually is.

    User scores, taken en masse are a bit more credible. For D3 you see lots of high scores at first and then lots of 1s for the Inferno problems + server stability problems that existed back then.

  5. #15
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    Re: How many copies of D3X will Blizzard sell?

    Not really anything credible about user scores either.

    Trolls, or even legitimately annoyed users, might go and review the game. Average buyer? Not so much. It will mostly be the "top " and "low" who bothers to vote.
    The most popular games will be rated lower due to the various troll/hipster internet-armies.

    Review sites are, even if crappy, probably still a much better measure - if you for some reason want to measure game quality through a number. They simply just measure how games are for the first 5-20 hours or so.
    Most reviewers probably didn't finish Hell, or even Nightmare. In which case a high score for Diablo 3 is somewhat justified. Most of the worst issues only really start to show their face after a while.
    Considering most players might not have finished hell either, their is a reasonable sync between average review site and average customer I guess.
    Just us who want a game that works after the first week too

  6. #16
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    Re: How many copies of D3X will Blizzard sell?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dogbert View Post
    Speaking of metacritic. Has anyone noticed diablo 3 has a score of 88 there but at the same time only a 3,8 user score. Is this normal?
    A lot of topical periodicals have that problem. The people they're criticizing are their advertisers. You ever see an episode of General Hospital where Jason tries to clean up a bloody mess somewhere, but the paper towel is torn apart and he goes "Damn it! ... Brawny sucks!"? Never.

    One of the most disgraceful of these farces was PC Gamer's review of Hellgate: London. They gave it an 89. They just couldn't bring themselves to give it a 90, where it would have gotten their gold seal of utter approval. What's the difference between an 89 and a 90 anyway? A butt texture somewhere could be interpreted as vaguely anti-semantic if you squint and cross your eyes for a few minutes?

    It's just a fact. Games published by big name guys get +3 points at the very least, compared to the comparable indie/small time publisher.

    User reviews are a better gauge of temperature. 33 to 50% of Internet People like Diablo 3, 50 to 66% don't. Useful to know if you should try the demo first if you, too, are an Internet Person.

    Further, any outlet that uses more than a strict 5 point scale can be summarily ignored. That's... pretty fundamental, the concept that if you put a number on something, maybe have that number mean something:

    0: Not a thing. My dog isn't a MTG card. Judged by the criteria "is this a good MTG card", he scores a 0.
    1: No real redeeming qualities. As bad as these things get.
    2: Not complete garbage. Extreme deviants might like it.
    3: Average. Not really worth consideration unless you're an enthusiast.
    4: Good. Some meaningful flaws.
    5: Great. Only weirdos or people who dislike this sort of thing could complain.

    And then, if a review is conducted correctly, the resulting quibble would be +/- one point. That variance is "opinion", but there's always an objective core.

    An objective core that says Diablo 3 is 3/5.

  7. #17
    IncGamers Member nurman's Avatar
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    Re: How many copies of D3X will Blizzard sell?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dogbert View Post
    Speaking of metacritic. Has anyone noticed diablo 3 has a score of 88 there but at the same time only a 3,8 user score. Is this normal?
    http://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/diablo-iii

    This was one of the moments when I lost my faith in metacritic.
    Most of the reviews are on the first 15 days and it really seems like it would be just a viral raid.
    95% of the problems described I never perceived / had even during the first month or two of the game being out. These people do not speak with logic or sense, they say what the community tells them to say.
    This song describes the whole situation for me.
    Spoiler




    As for the D3x sales, I'd throw out an estimate of 7 mil, 3-5 on the first month.
    Last edited by nurman; 20-08-2013 at 21:19.

  8. #18
    IncGamers Member themeros's Avatar
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    Re: How many copies of D3X will Blizzard sell?

    2 million first week, 3 million first month and 5 million in 6 months.

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