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  1. #1101
    IncGamers Member Caluin Graye's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    Let's look at past vote history.

    Two town, one mafia:
    BPC

    Three town; one mafia:
    Drixx

    Four town; two mafia:
    CG; Moar; DJM


    Hmm, that doesn't tell us a whole lot. Let's look at each lynch individually.

    Sathoris:
    Solar Ice, Caluin Graye, thefranklin, Bad Ash, BipolarChemist, pharphis, Moar, Gwaihir, djmbbandie, kestegs, Drixx

    Drixx was the late voter, but I can't see a scum trying to hop onto a wagon on a townie that's already achieved the requisite votes. Out of ten votes needed, BPC is fifth voter, Moar is seventh. Not much to be gleaned from that. You can say I look bad for trying to start a train on a townie, BPC and Moar look bad for hopping onto a train once it's already been formed, and DJM and Drixx look bad for piling on in the end to lock it up.

    BPC gives a fair reason for voting Sath ("I see him being recruiter"), Moar gives a fair reason, but strikes me a little bit as floppish ("I want to lynch Malevolent, but I'll do Sath. I don't think he's recruiter, but probably mafia.")


    coju:
    Pyrotechnician, Solar Ice, Gwaihir, djmbbandie, kestegs, Moar, Caluin Graye, BipolarChemist, Malevolent

    Three of us at the tail end of the train. I don't think anything of any real use can be gleaned from the coju lynch. It was a mess.


    Noodle:
    Gwaihir, Pyrotechnician, Drixx, kestegs, djmbbandie, BipolarChemist, flubbucket, Malevolent, Caluin Graye, Moar

    All of us on the Noodle lynch. It took eight votes to lynch, but there are ten people voting. My vote and Moar's vote don't actually count. My vote should have come after BPC's, but I forgot to unvote first. Take that for what you will.

    What's really interesting is this particular series of events:
    At 21:04, Goryani posts a vote total, indicating the following (I trimmed out the unimportant stuff):

    Quote Originally Posted by Goryani View Post
    Vote Count
    (current as of post 589)
    Noodle (7) - Gwaihir, Pyrotechnician, Drixx, Noodle, djmbbandie, BipolarChemist, flubbucket
    Moar (1) - Moar

    With 14 players, it takes 8 votes to lynch/lock.
    Day 3 will end Sunday at 5pm EST (21:00 GMT).
    And 13 minutes later, Malevolent:

    Quote Originally Posted by Malevolent View Post
    well i suppose i should just go ahead and lock him.

    Vote: Noodle

    So, what's with this then, at 12:01 the next day?

    Quote Originally Posted by Moar View Post
    We still haven't got a confirmed vote count for a lock/lynch, so I'll put down another vote for Noodle just so that I have done mine. I'd hate seeing a vote not count and me just being too lazy to vote since I thought it was a lock. A longer post will be made right after.

    Unvote: Moar
    Vote: Noodle
    I realize that this is somewhat damning of myself too, since I failed to notice the locking vote when I fixed my unvote/revote mess up. The biggest difference is that Moar had posted a number of times between the locking vote and the questioning of Noodle being locked.

    So maybe once is just a fluke. Let's move on.


    Noammr:
    Gwaihir, djmbbandie, Caluin Graye, kestegs, thefranklin, Pyrotechnician, Moar

    Neither BPC or Drixx was on this train. It took six votes to lynch Noammr, yet there are seven voters.

    Franklin and Pyro both voted at 13:39 (as well as Gwaihir posting a immediately incorrect updated vote count). Four minutes pass by before Moar posts saying she'd not want a no-lynch day. That in of itself is not suspicious. What is suspicious is the two minute delay before actually casting the vote. (I'm giving credit for the first attempt, even though it didn't count due to lack of bolding). Is that enough time to scroll back a couple posts, realize Noammr was finished, and try to sneak in on the train?


    kestegs:
    Drixx, flubbucket, Moar, Pyrotechnician, djmbbandie, Caluin Graye

    Also took six votes to lynch. Moar is on this train early (Gasp, third voter!). I was the locking vote.


    Flubbucket:
    Moar, Caluin Graye, Drixx, Pyrotechnician, djmbbandie

    Moar is on this train early as well. BPC was not present for the last three lynches.


    What I find most interesting about these patterns is that when it came to town lynches, Moar was on board usually pretty early, or at worst the middle of the pack. When it came time to lynch mafia, she jumped on at the very last moment, and in fact, her votes didn't technically count.

    BPC's habits show that he hasn't been voting the past lynches, but that includes two town and one mafia. Anything to read from that? Probably not.

  2. #1102
    Crusader Moderator Drixx's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    We gonna get one of these for each of us?
    Drixx's HC Sept Progress

  3. #1103
    IncGamers Member Caluin Graye's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Drixx View Post
    We gonna get one of these for each of us?
    It's supposed to be all encompassing, but as I pointed out earlier, I think you and DJM are least likely to flip mafia so I'm focusing mostly on BPC and Moar. Dinner now, but I'll go over today's stuff bit later tonight.

  4. #1104
    IncGamers Member Caluin Graye's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    I don't see a point in casing DJM. I suspect he's the towniest person alive right now. He didn't need to step forward when Gwaihir claimed the bus box on day three, but did so in a town way.

    Hmmm. Actually, let's look at that a bit more.

    Quote Originally Posted by djmbbandie View Post
    I'm the inventor. Night one I tried to give A Box To Another Universe to Gwaihir and was informed that I ended up with the item. Thus my question to Gwaihir. I'm wondering how he got the item I gave him when I used it last night to switch me and someone else. Anyways, now that exams are over for another nine weeks, I can focus on the game
    Gwaihir had also claimed to pick up a box on Night One. There are only two possible ways for DJM to end up with a box, as he cannot gift an item to himself. The first is via redirect, which could not have happened on Night One (as no bus boxes had been invented yet and the Forger had been lynched), and through the Parrot. So, logically, the only possible explanation for DJM to pick up a box on Night One is that someone parroted him onto himself.

    Quote Originally Posted by djmbbandie View Post
    Okay then, so Gwaihir is the parrot???
    Shortly after that was worked out by the town, DJM questions Gwaihir as the parrot. Mafia would really want to know why, who, and how their partner died. DJM could have already known that the Parrot was in existence (he had a full day and night to work out the series of events), could feign ignorance, and when Solar died, he could try to get the town on a Parrot hunt.

    DJM did vote for Noodle, but only after Pyro stepped forward with his claim.


    Now, with all that being said, I still think DJM is town. While he really should have asked himself why and how he could have gotten his own box on Night One, practically all the rest of his actions have been town in nature.

    He voted very early for Noammr, following Gwaihir's lead.

    He didn't use his Doomsday Device for very sinister reasons, which could have easily crippled the town.

    The Parrot lived for a number of days afterwards, when there was really no reason to keep him around. (Moar doesn't stop a death, only delay it). Why go through the motions of forcing the Parrot out into the open if you're not going to kill him right away?

    He self-voted to test today, instead of voting someone else. I don't think a mafia would make it easier for the town to lynch him when he's close to winning.

  5. #1105
    IncGamers Member Caluin Graye's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    As for Drixx...

    Well, I don't have enough time to put up a full case analysis of Drixx. Nor the energy. I think I can sum it up as such:

    If you are the Village Idiot, you are a bigger man than me for not self-voting today.

    If you are mafia, then town deserves to lose for not following through on a lynch of someone who claimed to not share the town's win condition.


    --------------


    Today's voting pattern is nifty too.

    I had one vote on me. During the time it was there, everyone posted at least once.

    Moar has one vote on her. During this time period, everyone has posted at least once.

    DJM had one vote on him. During that time, only Moar didn't post.

    If we assume that if there was two mafia left, and they'd take the opportunity to win the game at the first chance they could, then they'd have ninja-locked anyone not on their team with a vote on them. Since there are three people who had votes on them at some point, logically at least one of them had to be town, right?

    Yet nobody got locked.

    This means one of two things:

    1) There is only a single mafia left alive;

    2) Two mafia remain, and Moar's partner did not want to ninja-lock DJM without her present.

    Permutations:
    Cal + Drixx: Ninja-lock DJM.
    Cal + BPC: Ninja-lock Moar or DJM.
    Cal + Moar: ....
    Cal + DJM: Ninja-lock Moar.

    Drixx + BPC: Ninja-lock CG or DJM
    Drixx + Moar: ...
    Drixx + DJM: Ninja-lock CG

    BPC + Moar: ...
    BPC + DJM: Ninja-lock CG or Moar

    Moar + DJM: ...

    Anyone see a flaw in those? If not, that I think alone is enough to lynch Moar.

  6. #1106
    Crusader Moderator Drixx's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    CG arrived at the same place I did. The logic is about the same way I got there too.
    Drixx's HC Sept Progress

  7. #1107
    IncGamers Site Pal BipolarChemist's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    It mostly makes sense to me, but I'm too damn tired to think about this right now. I'm sorry I'm not being helpful right now, but I need sleep before I can begin to properly comprehend this.

  8. #1108
    IncGamers Site Pal BipolarChemist's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    I lied, I'm going to try to think about this. The voting pattern from Moar today does seem to consistently suggest the second option. The initial vote that she laid down at the beginning of the day could easily have been an attempt to lure me, djm or drixx into voting for you, CG, allowing whoever her partner is to lock it and cause a win. This of course is all assuming there is two mafia left.This would cause a LyLo situation tomorrow, but we are pretty much in this situation right now if there are two mafia left.

    If only one mafia remains, then your info could mean almost nothing, from what I can see, and if we are wrong, then it puts us into a really tough spot tomorrow.

    But right now, I think a Moar lynch may be our best guess.

    So...

    Vote: Moar

  9. #1109
    IncGamers Site Pal BipolarChemist's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    Now it's time for me to sleep. I hope to be around before day end tomorrow, but I'm going on a bit of a road trip, so I have no clue where I'll be for most of the day tomorrow.

  10. #1110
    IncGamers Member Goryani's Avatar
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    Re: Best Of Forum Mafia WIFOA Game Thread

    Vote Count
    (current as of post 1109)

    Caluin Graye (0) - Moar, Bipolar Chemist,
    BipolarChemist (0) - Caluin Graye,
    djmbbandie (0) - djmbbandie,
    Drixx (0) - Drixx,
    Moar (2) - Drixx, Bipolar Chemist,

    With 5 players it takes 3 votes to lynch/lock.
    Day 7 will last 48 hours and end on Friday at 5pm EST (21:00 GMT).

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