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  1. #1
    IncGamers Member Gyeon's Avatar
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    Forecasting the market on the return of the AH

    When the AH comes back online it will be completely empty, all previously posted items will have expired since Blizz is running the clock as they trace the dupe gold. I'm opperating under the assumption that the dupe gold will be scrubbed and no one will come out significantly wealthier than prior to 1.08. Not everyone believes this senario and will rush to post ridiculous auctions hoping to milk the overnight trillionare. How do you think the market will emerge from this multi-day blackout?

  2. #2
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    Re: Forecasting the market on the return of the AH

    I think you're right. Many items will be way over priced (not that they weren't prior to 1.08). At first I was thinking that items would be under priced, as folks will just want to sell items again. But that's naive. Diablo players don't sell items on the AH to be reasonable. They sell items on the AH to make as much gold as they can, and why not? Do it, I say. Make your gold while the goings hot. Buyer beware. Do your research before buying. Wait a couple weeks fro things to settle down, because it will.

    It's also possible that Blizzard will place the AH back how it was when they took it down, as if no time passed at all. Items that had an hour left will still have an hour left. I am not sure which way they'll go.
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  3. #3
    IncGamers Member Gyeon's Avatar
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    Re: Forecasting the market on the return of the AH

    A blue post confirmed the expiration of auctions here:

    http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/top...0109?page=2#40

    Some players are becoming absolutely rabid in the absence of the AH threatening lawsuits and demanding firings of Blizzard employees. So one can only imagine the demand that is accumulating for items. With many 2 billion auctions likely to be generated, posting an item for 2X it's worth will seem a bargain. I'm hoping greedy players will scoop these items up in efforts to flip them for top dollar assuming the economy has shifted towards some "supposed" hyper-inflated state.

  4. #4
    Administrator Flux's Avatar
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    Re: Forecasting the market on the return of the AH

    Quote Originally Posted by Dacar92 View Post
    Many items will be way over priced (not that they weren't prior to 1.08). At first I was thinking that items would be under priced, as folks will just want to sell items again. But that's naive. Diablo players don't sell items on the AH to be reasonable. They sell items on the AH to make as much gold as they can, and why not?
    I'd change "sell" to "price" in your post. Players who "sell" tend to set realistic prices. Lots of items have wildly unrealistic prices, and I suspect 99% of them sit there for 36 hours without any action. I've priced dozens of items in the oh... 25-250m range, usually going with a price equal to various comparable items, and of those I can think of 3 or 4 that actually sold at my initial price. Most of the rest sold once I cut the price 25-50% when I relisted it.

    I'm also wondering how people will know what to price stuff by. After all, other than some mats, nothing has any real inherent value in D3. An item is worth what people will pay for it, and that's all determined by a sort of evolving supply and demand. When I find something, I check comps, and I set a price. If nothing's listed there aren't any comps. I found a very nice Zuni's chest Tuesday night, 150 INT/185 Vit (in Hardcore) and had absolutely no idea what it was worth without an AH to check. Could have been worth anywhere from 15 to 150m, for all could guess, not having priced the popularity of that item recently.



    Quote Originally Posted by Gyeon View Post
    Some players are becoming absolutely rabid in the absence of the AH threatening lawsuits and demanding firings of Blizzard employees.
    I've noted that and found it amusing. After all, it's been 3 days of no AH, with the game fully playable during the last 2.5 of those days. I've been a slightly inconvenienced by not being able to buy rubies to upgrade my hat socket, but other that that, what's the big deal? Are that many people really dependent upon constantly upgrading/rearranging their gear? Go play an alt you haven't touched for a while. Experiment with new farming runs in A1. Etc.

    It does put a light on the theory that Bliz will drop the RMAH or whole GAH in D3X (as they're doing in the console version). You hear a lot of complaints about the GAH, but 3 days without and lots of people are sounding like smack addicts who can't get hold of their dealer.
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  5. #5
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    Re: Forecasting the market on the return of the AH

    things will go on as normal... probably the first auctions will be higher than normal, people hoping limited supply will drive up prices. but all the items are still in the economy for the most part, just a matter of when people relist their items to bring the supply side back to what it was before the bug, and prices will snap right back to what they were.

  6. #6
    Administrator Flux's Avatar
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    Re: Forecasting the market on the return of the AH

    I surveyed SC auctions a bit and didn't notice any huge price swings. (Though I think they'll appear once the RMAH and the 10 > 1m change goes live.)

    Hardcore was no discernible change. Prices picked up right where they left off. I guess everyone did what I did and just relisted most of their expired auctions, which immediately recreated the market at previous values.

    ToS were 11.5k an hour after the GAH went back up, which surprised me. Gems were maybe 25% higher than last weekend also. I'd expected prices on that stuff to be much lower, as people would have quantities built up to dump after playing for a few days with sales. I moved 1000 ToS immediately for 11,700 and chuckled at the profit. I'd bought 500 a while ago for around 8k, and the rest were found in v1.08 play.

    ....and then 2 hours later I decided to craft a bunch and upgrade my hat ruby, and try to roll some better shoulders. Which burned through all the other ToS I had and I wound up buying 500 more at 9.5k. Which was approximately what I'd made for all the ones I sold earlier, after the 15% Bobby cut. This might reflect the reason I never get much over 100m in my bank account.
    --Flux
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