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  1. #1
    IncGamers Member
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    Problem with farming keys

    I am trying to farm keys. Everything was well in the beginning. I got planes and one of every key. Then I got 8 keys of destruction in 20 tries, which is exact what I could expect playing MP4.
    But my luck (and any logic) has ended in Act 2. I killed Sokahr Keywarden 6 times on MP4 and 5 times more on MP5 without a single key drop. Since probability of such event is 0.208% I start start to believe that my “bad luck” is not accidental. Has anybody similar problem? Or maybe an idea about a reason to my failure?
    ... And yes - I stack 5 Nephalem valor before I enter Oahlgur Oasis - use to get some extra elites there as well

  2. #2
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    There is only one thing that affects key drops and that's monster power.
    At monster power 4 there is a 60% chance that the key will not drop.
    That percentage doesn't govern a collection of runs.
    Instead, it's a percentage that applies to a single instance of a key drop.

  3. #3
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    Well, in every INDIVIDUAL case was probability of non drop 60% (monster power 4) and than 50% (monster power 5). Probability for non drop in the entire sequence is different though:
    0.6*0.6* 0.6*0.6* 0.6*0.6*0.5*05*0.5*05*0.5=0.001458=0.1485%


    Since it is more likely that I am stupid than unlucky, so I am trying to discover what I am doing wrong

  4. #4
    IncGamers Member RazeBarb's Avatar
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    If you get 5 stacks of NV and then kill the warden on any MP1-9 without getting the key, you're just unlucky.

  5. #5
    IncGamers Member nurman's Avatar
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    Quote Originally Posted by RazeBarb View Post
    If you get 5 stacks of NV and then kill the warden on any MP1-9 without getting the key, you're just unlucky.
    This

    After you do ~1000 runs at, say, mp4, you will probably average around 400 keys, maybe 50-100 less or more.

  6. #6
    IncGamers Member Katniss's Avatar
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    Everyone else has pretty much sufficiently answered your question/issue, but to add anecdotal evidence, there was a time where I would always get keys when going on runs with friends no matter what MP. And then a few nights ago I did a few runs with friends on MP8 for Act 2 keys and got zero. I think it was maybe 4-5 runs without a single key. Sometimes luck just isn't on your side!

  7. #7
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    Thanks for all response!
    Playing statistics with little samples can be pretty misguiding - I should know better. The only stupid thing I did was calculating probability.
    Anyway keys start to drop for me again.
    Regards
    Sangfagel

  8. #8
    IncGamers Member RazeBarb's Avatar
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    That being said, I can't wait to NOT play act3 for the next 100 keys
    I've stopped doing the Warden when I got to 52 keys, because I want to craft all of the machines at once.
    As soon as the patch is live on EU, I'll be farming 50xa1 + 50xa2 keys

  9. #9
    IncGamers Site Pal InteNuIgen's Avatar
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    Quote Originally Posted by RazeBarb View Post
    That being said, I can't wait to NOT play act3 for the next 100 keys
    I've stopped doing the Warden when I got to 52 keys, because I want to craft all of the machines at once.
    As soon as the patch is live on EU, I'll be farming 50xa1 + 50xa2 keys
    Amen to that!

  10. #10
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    Re: Problem with farming keys

    I noticed a similar anomaly for the act I keywarden. About 50 kills on MP0 with 5NV with no drops. That is less than a one percent chance. Whereas Acts 2 and 3 seemed to drop keys at the expected rate. Again, perhaps the sample size is too small to expect the average, but I wouldn't rule out a bug somewhere.

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