stock market chat 2013

[jmervyn]

I don't think its going to be a major crash, just an normal correction of at-most 10%.

I'm certainly no expert, but I think you'll see far more than that - though perhaps not all at the same time. America has at least three "corrections" in store: a 'student loan' crash, the eventual repercussions of our failure to fix our housing market, and the effect of what THE WON has done to our economy.

I suspect the last will be the only thing that causes a normal "correction", and that's going to happen quite soon if the numbers aren't fudged sufficiently to prevent the "Depression" label from being stuck to his forehead.

There are several shades of grey,

At least 50, or so I hear.

[Fizoo]

It seems you are listening a lot to others and make decisions on impressions. I would consider statements of so-called pundits with extreme caution. You will always, *ALWAYS* have to ask yourself why they are making their statements. There are several reasons, one is doing good deeds for mankind, another is another is making you do something which will influence prices to his or his employer's advantage - and not necessarily to yours. There are several shades of grey, but most motives are based on greed... at least that would be my first assumption. If you don't have at least a crude version of the mentioned Cinderella clock (i.e. have a few skills and a bit of background knowledge... and the mentioned experts don't provide it), you better try making money with a different half luck, half skills game, like cleaning out noobs at the poker table .

All good points.OT: How come you have a sig and almost everyone else doesn't? Is there an option buried in a menu im not finding, are you copy/pasting it into every post, or something else?

[krischan]

People who donate money receive a few benefits, like a sig, a bigger PM box etc. See here: http://diablo.incgamers.com/forums/payments.php. Mods (like me) have it, too.

There should be a list of all benefits somewhere, but I cannot find them right now.

[Stevinator]

The rest of us are cheap bastards because we invest by burying things in our respective backyards, so we can't afford sigs.


Anyway, I wish you luck, but my advice is to stick mostly to long positions of companies that can add value or broad index funds with low expenses. it's boring, but given enough time, it's your best recipe for success.

[Fizoo]

The rest of us are cheap bastards because we invest by burying things in our respective backyards, so we can't afford sigs. Anyway, I wish you luck, but my advice is to stick mostly to long positions of companies that can add value or broad index funds with low expenses. it's boring, but given enough time, it's your best recipe for success.

The best advice i would give anyone is to sit out of the market completely until there is a crash. people throw away both good stocks and bad in crashes. Thats where you buy great companies at deep discounts.In my lifetime ive seen crashes in 87, 91, 98, 2000, 2002, and 2008. they show up regularly. Im being more aggressive.

[jmervyn]

The best advice i would give anyone is to sit out of the market completely until there is a crash. people throw away both good stocks and bad in crashes.

Sadly, I don't have that choice - my G.I.-issue 401K, called the Thrift Savings Plan, basically screws me over royally if I withdraw.

I wish I'd put it back in American stocks immediately after the first crash. Instead, I was stupid enough to transfer it to foreign markets, not realizing that the fund was heavily invested in Europe and multinationals, and not very much in the Far East. I've taken a bath in both 2008 and 2011, but I figure it's probably better to keep throwing good money after bad so that by the time they manage to finagle the stocks away from investments in the PIIGS, the American funds may be bottoming out.

[BobCox2]

The best advice i would give anyone is to sit out of the market completely until there is a crash. people throw away both good stocks and bad in crashes. Thats where you buy great companies at deep discounts.In my lifetime ive seen crashes in 87, 91, 98, 2000, 2002, and 2008. they show up regularly. Im being more aggressive.

If your invested for the long team and doing incremental buying as most 401Ks do sit tight and don't time the market.
I have moved some money out of some old 401K's to self directed IRAs and if the investment I was in as at a lower price on my exit from the 401k and I want to make the same investment, I do wait for a drop before reinvesting in it.

I hate that on such a transfer they can't just move the invesment over from one fund to the other, seems like a scam to take charges on the sell and buy and you can't even pick the time of the sell - just send in the form and wait to see what price they sold at.

I hate that.

[Fizoo]

If your invested for the long team and doing incremental buying as most 401Ks do sit tight and don't time the market.
I have moved some money out of some old 401K's to self directed IRAs and if the investment I was in as at a lower price on my exit from the 401k and I want to make the same investment, I do wait for a drop before reinvesting in it.

I hate that on such a transfer they can't just move the invesment over from one fund to the other, seems like a scam to take charges on the sell and buy and you can't even pick the time of the sell - just send in the form and wait to see what price they sold at.

I hate that.

That can be risky depending on when you start.

If you started doing that in 1966, that was the start of a 16 bear market that ended in 1982. Your money went nowhere. If you did the same thing in 2000, that was the start of a 12 year bear market and counting. Again, your money went nowhere. If you started near any of the recent tops between 2000 and 2012, its been a painful experience.

[Fizoo]

Sold 200 shares of TZA at 10.25 after buying them at 10.95 for a loss of $140. im using a "time" stop here. Clearly i bought at the wrong time and instead of a drop the market is flatlining while TZA falls and TNA rises. It coukd flatline for a while so i got out.

[Stevinator]

Sadly, I don't have that choice - my G.I.-issue 401K, called the Thrift Savings Plan, basically screws me over royally if I withdraw.

I wish I'd put it back in American stocks immediately after the first crash. Instead, I was stupid enough to transfer it to foreign markets, not realizing that the fund was heavily invested in Europe and multinationals, and not very much in the Far East. I've taken a bath in both 2008 and 2011, but I figure it's probably better to keep throwing good money after bad so that by the time they manage to finagle the stocks away from investments in the PIIGS, the American funds may be bottoming out.

can't you reallocate to cash? or the "stable" fund? or whatever they call it? you don't have to withdraw, just shuffle it around.


i still say it's too hard to figure out when it's best to jump in and out, so sit on companies that aren't going anywhere, and make sure you reallocate every so often.



Fizoo, any thoughts on gas prices? they've been shooting up like crazy recently. And I'm driving a gas guzzler, so I notice. If you're into gambling, how about betting on a drop (or continued rise) in oil? There's been a big run since november, and i wonder if you think it's sustainable.