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  1. #21
    IncGamers Site Pal InteNuIgen's Avatar
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    10 more, very dry for starters but it got better in the end, 3 legs and 1 set item

    Runs: 80
    Legs: 33
    Set items: 6
    Keys: 4
    ---- For clarification: in the stats below, set items are included in "legs" ----
    Legs / run: 0.49
    Leg / hour: 1.46
    Avg time between legs: 41 minutes
    Mobs killed: 102 352
    Mobs per legendary: 2 624

  2. #22
    IncGamers Site Pal InteNuIgen's Avatar
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    Another 10, veeeeeery dry, but closing in to 100 runs...!

    Runs: 90
    Legs: 34
    Set items: 7
    Keys: 5
    ---- For clarification: in the stats below, set items are included in "legs" ----
    Legs / run: 0.46
    Leg / hour: 1.37
    Avg time between legs: 44 minutes
    Mobs killed: 114 987
    Mobs per legendary: 2 805

  3. #23
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    I'm guessing you've probably hit 100 runs by now. What's the final outcome?? I'm eagerly anticipating the results. :-)

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

  4. #24
    IncGamers Site Pal InteNuIgen's Avatar
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    Quote Originally Posted by tougeznut View Post
    I'm guessing you've probably hit 100 runs by now. What's the final outcome?? I'm eagerly anticipating the results. :-)

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2
    Well not quite, but almost

    I got fed up with doing the same run again and agin so i took a break, doing some key/uber hunting instead (with limited success).
    But i have taken up the runs again, have done 97 now. Expect results tomorrow with lots of stats (and some possibly interesting graphs)

  5. #25
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    Quote Originally Posted by InteNuIgen View Post
    Well not quite, but almost

    I got fed up with doing the same run again and agin so i took a break, doing some key/uber hunting instead (with limited success).
    But i have taken up the runs again, have done 97 now. Expect results tomorrow with lots of stats (and some possibly interesting graphs)
    Graphs?!?!?!? Wooohooooo!

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

  6. #26
    IncGamers Site Pal InteNuIgen's Avatar
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    So i am finally done with 100 runs. Results and thoughts below.

    Short recap:
    I decided awhile ago to measure the number of drops over a larger amount of runs and to track certain numbers, in order to come up with some statistics. With “drops”, i mean legendaries, set items and keys.

    Conditions:
    I did act 3 runs as follows: Keep 1+2+3, Field of slaughter (no clear, just straight through) and then Rakkis crossing. TP to camp and then Skycrown battlements and round it up with Stonefort. This run takes about 20 minutes, hence 3 runs per hour.
    I did this with my wizard on MP0 and max MF. Her DPS is such that, on MP0, i kill an ordinary e-pack in 2-3 seconds. She has gained paragon levels during these runs so i have done a few upgrades when switching out MF gear (which was no longer needed since i had max MF and beyond that) for some gear with more dps. (A Vile Ward which was an upgrade in terms of hp and resist, and also had MF, contributed some to that as well).

    Results:
    NB: When i say “legendaries”, i include set items.

    Runs: 100
    Hours played: ~33
    Total number of legendaries: 44
    Regular (brown) legendaries: 37 (84 %)
    Set items: 7 (16 %)
    Keys: 6 (6 %)
    (A note about key drops: I don’t think Blizz has offficially stated that the drop rate for keys is 5% on MP0, but that is the number i have heard. 100 runs is far too small to verify such a small percentage but i included it most for fun and it is at least a small indicator. And my percentage comes quite close to 5%)

    Legendaries per run: 0.44
    Number of kills: 127 105
    Mobs killed per legendary: 2 889
    (Note: Everyone’s kill speed is different, so this is maybe one of the most interesting numbers. It is actually a bit lower than i expected)

    Legendaries per hour: 1.32
    Average time between legendaries: 45 minutes
    % of runs that yielded a set item: 7 %
    Average time between set items: 286 minutes
    Set items per hour: 0.21

    Some analysis:
    The dry spells come and go. I grouped my 100 runs into batch of 10 runs (as you have seen since i posted updates after every 10 runs). The longest dry spell was 9 runs without drops. Then a set item dropped and then another 4 runs without drops. That was not exactly fun
    The best batch saw 9 drops and 1 key.

    The graph below shows the number of legendaries (again, including set items) per batch of 10 runs. Started of really good, then a huge dip, then slowly getting better and better to finish off with a somewhat dry period.




    This graph shows the “number of legendaries per hour”, calculated after every run. The beginning of the curve is of course very unstable due to the small number of runs, then rising and then dropping slightly. The thought was that this curve would (over an extended series of runs) stabilize around a certain value and it would not be likely that the final average number should be much different from what we see. It is much easier to see “where it’s going” with a graph like this one.




    My initial claim was that i, on average, got 1 legendary per run. This is not correct, 1 legendary per 2 runs is much closer to the truth. I will say, however, that under a short period just before i started it literally rained drops and that probably affected my claim. Two runs before i started i had 3 legendaries AND a set item during 15 minutes in the same run.

    Summary:
    I pondered for a while to make another 100 runs, but the last graph has sort of convinced me that it would not contribute enough to make any radically changes to the results.
    That, plus it gets really boring to just do the same run over and over again, but you all know that of course. I did take a break from this to do some key farming, but then i took a note of my current lifetime kill number, in order to keep these correct.

    Thank you for following this thread and i hope you enjoyed the results!

  7. #27
    IncGamers Site Pal InteNuIgen's Avatar
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    Pasted all the text from a Google document and the font went a little weird, but i do hope it's readable.
    If you run Firefox, you can hit Ctrl and the plus sign (+) to enlarge the page

  8. #28
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    Great experiment. This definitely shows evidence that having max MF does make a difference in the number of legendary items found. I used to think it was 100% random, and that MF only affected rares, but your results did yield a trend that shows otherwise. Very cool.

    Edit: it would be amazing if we could somehow turn off paragons and try this experiment at 0% MF for comparison. To see if 300% MF is actually 3 times more likely to result in legendaries.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2
    Last edited by tougeznut; 22-01-2013 at 01:48.

  9. #29
    IncGamers Member nubikoen's Avatar
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    Though I haven't posted in this thread, I just want to let you know I've been following it with great interest.

    Thanks for doing this

  10. #30
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    Re: Keeping track of legendary drops

    Thanks for doing this it was a nice thread to follow. I for one will try and equip more MF with my newly startet Wiz.

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