For 150mil you'd need to get an OWE resist as the random mod on the boots and make some serious compromises with the ring. The 2 piece is certainly the most efficient way to get damage out of the two slots and if you get perfect rolls you can bring up the defensive stats. With other rares you can start with much higher defensive stats for the same price and upgrade for offense.
So it's reply time and the first thing that hits me is "Heroscore? I was using PvP dummy! I smell selection bias." So I look up heroscore and notice that pizzarino was using a stat that 1) uses hidden coefficients everywhere and 2) inexplicably square-roots EHP, which is more important than DPS for PvP barbs. So I start typing up a post to theorycraft-hammer pizzarino and suddenly something else hits me: If diabloprogress uses heroscore as a complete sham stat, how are they calculating EHP?
A quick Google later and I get this, and I develop a real worry that I've been arguing for the wrong side. EHP is a key stat I've been depending on in my predictions; it's also a component of the PvP-dummy stat I've been using. Their evaluation of block rate's contribution to EHP seemed completely arbitrary, but was it really that far off?
Some math is in order. Without further ado, here are our players, all pulled from diabloprogress: some Taiwanese person, the highest DPS DH Revrac, the highest PvP-dummy character worldwide, who happens to be a DH, and PhongKa, the highest PvP-dummy barb (and right behind Revrac in the listings)
Average damage per attack, Hungering Arrow edition: 247,228
Average damage per non-crit/crit: 48,786/351,751
Crit chance: 65.5%
Hungering Arrows per second, including pierce returns: 3.66
EHP including dodge chance: 799,146
Average damage per attack, Hungering Arrow edition: 190,557
Average damage per non-crit/crit: 43,171/288,814
Crit chance: 60.0%
Hungering Arrows per second, including pierce returns: 3.08
EHP including dodge chance: 1,979,480
Average damage per attack, Bash edition: 102,473
Bashes per second: 1.74
EHP multiplier including Impunity, excluding dodge chance but before shield blocks: 23.66
Real EHP including dodge chance ONLY: 155,244
Diabloprogress's reported "EHP": 6,331,248
Block chance: 56%
Average block amount: 4206
Taiwan vs Revrak
Taiwan can withstand 4.19 average shots, estimated time-to-die 1.36 seconds.
Revrak can withstand 8.01 average shots, estimated time-to-die 2.19 seconds.
Verdict: The smart money's on Revrak, although DHvDH is going to be very, very fast and anything could happen. The "2-shot kill zomg" sky isn't falling quite yet, but it's still fast enough to be mildly concerned.
Taiwan vs PhongKa
Unblocked damage taken per non-crit/crit: 2,062/14,867
Average unblocked damage: 10,449
Blocked damage taken per non-crit/crit: 0/10,661
Average blocked damage: 6,983
Average damage overall: 8,508
PhongKa's match-specific EHP: 4,511,126 (overreported by 40.3%)
PhongKa can withstand 18.25 average shots, estimated time-to-die 4.99 seconds.
Taiwan can withstand 7.80 average shots, estimated time-to-die 4.48 seconds.
Verdict: Wow, almost no chance for PhongKa to win this. I guess he still could, but his approach to our Taiwanese friend would have to be an epic, damage-free display of mastery. Well over 90% of the time the DH would take the win.
Revrak vs PhongKa
Unblocked damage taken per non-crit/crit: 1,825/12,207
Average unblocked damage: 7,325
Blocked damage taken per non-crit/crit: 0/8,001
Average blocked damage: 4,801
Average damage overall: 5,912
PhongKa's match-specific EHP: 5,003,862 (overreported by 26.5%)
PhongKa can withstand 26.26 average shots, estimated time-to-die 8.53 seconds.
Taiwan can withstand 19.32 average shots, estimated time-to-die 11.10 seconds.
Verdict: Since Revrak has more Pvp-dummy than PhongKa in addition to range, this wasn't really a fair fight to begin with. I think the barb's only chance is that Revrak hits a severe lag spike at a critical moment.
What this data says is that diabloprogress.com greatly overreported EHP (and thus also PvP-dummy) for top-level barbarians, so I greatly exaggerated their durability. If their EHP data was reality, PhongKa would have lasted 10.8 seconds, pretty much as I predicted, but unfortunately not close to reality.
The data also brought to light how effective blocking is for melee against non-crits, as well as the importance of a high crit chance to shield-break. A huge chunk of pizza's original post was about efforts Blizzard might take to allow defenses against high crit chance, and after working on the models that concern doesn't seem crazy at all.
I apologize to pizzarino for trying to disprove him with faulty data. For someone without my love of math, pizza's predictions were surprisingly insightful; he may scour the net for favorable data when he gets in a debate, but I'm guilty of the same. Furthermore, as someone who loves flogging the data I should have known better than to not question my sources.
On the that note, diabloprogress.com sucks, you should never trust them, and getting top ranked by them for any "complex" stat (including all 3 I used in my expample) should mean little or nothing to anyone.
Thanks for the detailed reply. After your first reply I thought this thread was going full trainwreck, but now we're back!
I didn't really try to do a lot of math or independent research; I'm speaking from personal experience in other games. I had the best possible, best in slot everything PVE gear on my character for most of vanilla WoW in my server's top raiding guild. When the PVP honor system came out with high warlord gear, it couldn't beat my PVE gear. When they updated the rewards months later it still couldn't beat what I already had. It was only at the very end of vanilla WoW, when they finally introduced the resilience stat, that I actually wanted to swap out a piece of pure damage PVE gear for a defensive PVP reward item.
A more recent personal experience was me posting my monk's profile on a battle.net forum thread asking for any suggestions for gear improvements. I was wearing gear to rank me top 30 US in EHP for monks, such that only 4 other characters on diabloprogress.com had both higher damage and higher EHP than I did. Someone said that with so many defensive stats, I should consider dual wielding over the shield I won in early 1.0.4 on a 30mil bid...
Economics is closely related to math, and something tells me defensive items are in extremely low demand right now. Jay Wilson has already teased that the best PVP items are already in the game waiting to be discovered. What else can we discover RIGHT NOW?
EHP can't be upgraded heavily with buffs. DPS can. This is the main whole difference.
I like balanced toon, and I will use one for pvp, but my goal is 180kdps unbuffed with 25% won khim lau (echoing fury main hand ofc).
As a side, I'll mix max ehp using a 8% 190dex/75vit/70+ar zuni feet, 90dex/250vit zuni chest and trifecta pox. This will give me close to 200 free AR for almost nothing and costed me lower then 500m compared to the 4b+ that you need just to have perfect nata feet/boost and is WAY MORE balanced. I had a pretty brillant discussion on us boards with awesome feedbacks. You're just looking in the wrong pleaces.
I also like to be "pvp balanced" but you're looking at the wrong items, wrong stats and underrating dps TOO MUCH.
ps: oh and I had some of the best geared monks telling me that zunimassa 3 peaces was an hidden treasure :V
I do think the number crunching is healthy, but ultimately it'll have to be up to the arena. There were plenty of times that numbers would dictate a duel in D2, but it was often overcome (Sin vs Barb, NEc vs Sorc, Smiter vs Hdin, etc.)
I pretty much knew, but this is the nail in the coffin for me: my DPS and EHP are seriously lacking XD. Those guys have crazy stats. Back to the grind...
3 piece Zuni's on a Monk is actually a good suggestion.
The point of a level 63 set or legendary is you get an item that compares to a 6 property rare. Some items give you stats that would otherwise not appear on the slot and less overall properties, like the 4 property Stone of Jordan. Some legendaries give 7 properties, like Echoing Fury. Sets will usually give 6 and the set bonus gives an equivalent to a 7th. In this case we have a set where int will always appear as a relatively useless stat across 3 pieces and as one of the set bonuses.
Will Zunis with focused random rolls for a Monk compare to ideal rares? Assume 75% rolls on everything. Also we're not going completely over the top on stat selection. No trifecta rings and both sets have one +armor and one life regen mod in them somewhere.
8% elemental damage
18 resist all from int
12% movement speed
256 life regen (random mod)
150 dex (random mod)
18 resist all from int
78 resist all
162 dex from 3 socketed perfect stars
75/75 dex/vita (random mod)
300 armor (random mod)
9 resist all from int
68 resist all
33% crit damage
8% attack speed (random mod)
45 OWE resist (random mod)
75/75 dex/vita (random mod)
13 resist all from int
55 resist all
60 resist all
45 OWE resist
??? life regen
12% movement speed
8% attack speed
37% critical hit damage
45 OWE resist
Adding all that up on a spreadsheet the rare set has +75 dex, +59 vita, +4% crit damage, +9% life, and +359 LOH. The Zuni set has +49 resists, and +8% elemental damage. This is a good value if you manage to snipe unwanted monk Zunis off of the AH!
Thanks for making this thread Pizzarino, the possibility of good pvp in D3 is just about the only intriguing aspect of the game right now. On to my thoughts:
Starting with what we (think) we know about PvP.
It is going to be team format, probably 2v2 minimum, not 1v1 so synergy is more important in my mind than how X class duels Y class.
It is probably going to be timed deathmatch style, resurrection after death, total kill count in X minutes wins or possibly best kill count to deaths ratio (not as likely).
It is going to take place in a limited size arena, almost certainly approx the size of the boss arena's, Magda's being on the small side, Azmodans being on the large. It is going to be rather crowded in a 4 v 4 game I think. There will certainly be kiting, but not to the extent you can kite now in PvE.
The damage output will not be anything close to theoretical E DPS numbers. For so many reasons. So much so that even discussing the numbers as theoretical starting points seems almost futile. Those numbers are based on mindless, no armor, no resist mobs, with no CC or attempts to avoid damage at all ever. Those numbers aren't even against elites, that sometimes at least mimic defensive CC and cuts your dps in half right there. And as Pizzario rightly points out, if the damage is too high Blizzard will nerf it or will provide a mechanic for pvpers to easily nerf it. Period.
Maybe some disagree, but I think the starting point for any pvp gear discussion has to be that raw damage will not be terribly high.
Given that I'm looking at life-steal as going from an extremely valuable pve stat to a useless pvp stat.
I'm also thinking life regen is going to be the one of the most valuable stats in pvp though it is fairly cheap to get now. Same for life-on-hit for monks. I don't see all resist as being a crucial pvp stat the way it is in pve. All resist is needed in pve because of the "standing in fire" aspect of many elite modifiers. Us players don't have many abilities that operate the same way, say Arcane enchanted does. You will want some AR, but not stacking it the way we do in pve.
Will CC be overtly powerful and CM frost nova wizards rule the day? I'm curious how Blizz will address the "stun-locked" issue in pvp. They have learned from WoW that when players click buttons and nothing happens players get frustrated and stop playing pvp, so I can't believe that CC builds will be the be all end all of PvP. They already invested in the _reduce CC_ modifier so I think they will utilize it and that stat will go from zero to fairly valuable.
Those are some of my current thoughts on pvp, hope it keeps this discussion going.
I actually undertook a pretty massive project to try to mathematically determine best-in-slot gear for PvP. Unfortunately, this resulted in a failure, as I actually overtaxed the computing power of Microsoft Excel. (It was impossible to compute without including circular references of some kind.) I mean I learned how to create my own Excel formulas in an attempt to solve this (on the bright side, having to only type =dodge(487) to find the dodge chance for 487 Dex is pretty handy from here on in).
However, although they're not definitive, I have some results. Koldfeat pretty much has the right idea.
You can get really, really impressive defenses based off life regeneration per second, as Koldfeat says; however, since all resistances (or at least physical resist, it depends a bit on class balance) and armor multiply the effect of this lifegain, they are also very valuable. Let's just say a Demon Hunter with very good rare gear could be gaining 100k EHP per second purely from life per second. That means someone with only 100k DPS wouldn't be able to kill this guy while he's AFK, except through a serious of RNG miracles. Granted, a DH assembling that gear would have a very high budget, but a Monk? He gets the 30% damage reduction class bonus, access to OWE (although I did use Perfectionist in the DH example), can use a shield (DH didn't), etc. Combine that with the ability to manually avoid attacks, and Blizzard might have to nerf PvP damage upward if battles end up lasting so long it becomes boring.
Life steal, while not amazing, isn't horrible. It's pretty much the same as straight-up % damage; 3% more damage doesn't make the Top 6 Random Mods list, but it'll be a factor in budget gear.
Speaking of top 6 Random Mods, Bonus vs Elites works against other players. On weapons, the random mod is (kinda) tied for #6, just good enough to place (behind +dmg, %dmg, socket, crit damage, and dex/vit; it narrowly edges out pure dex and pure vit bonuses; life-on-hit can be better, depending on proc rate). The 30% damage bonus from Stone of Jordan is HUGE...
...and in the case of Monks, enough to make it best-in-slot ring, due to the interaction with Life Per Spirit Spent.
CC builds will be very good but not overpowered. Most every class has a way to escape (Wrath of the Berserker, Serenity, Smoke Screen) but will have trouble using it continuously. With high expected round length, eventually those abilities won't be usable anymore and a CC character would achieve stun-lock for a bit. However, eventually those resources will regenerate, allowing for a combo breaker, and CC characters would still have to overcome the effect of life regen against characters who focus on that, meaning a certain minimum DPS would be required.
also i wouldnt be suprised if 1.07 or 1.10 comes with alot of balance changes for the purpose of PVP - i dont think that any kind of PVP with the current 1.05 balance would be any kind of fun beyond the first day.
also - there has to be something which takes them so incredibly long to implement.