Seems like we've hit the all-time low, doesn't it? Maximum burnout after grinding every day after the launch, combined with frustrating game and patch-decisions, and the endgame standstill. On top of that most people have given up, just waiting for the savior patch that might fail pretty hard if the expectations keep rising.
I'm fairly certain that it will get better, though. Say what you will but the game is addictive and there's a ton of people out there that find it hard to deal with addiction or simply don't bother confronting it. In other words there will continue to be people playing the game, buying and selling items, even if the game itself isn't exactly fixed. The buff to legendaries, successful or not, will bring at least a short term boost to the economy with people frantically trying to make a quick buck. The pause between now and the next patch will also refresh most people, be it casuals or hardcore gamers. As for the long term, PvP will undoubtedly be another solid boost to economy. It will also in my opinion be the most definitive answer to the big question - whether Diablo 3 will live strong or fade away.
What are your observations and predictions (be it specific or general)?
- Sales died in the butt immediately after the Repair-Cost patch.
- No one I know in real life has sworn off the game.
- No one I know in real life is playing more than 50% as much as the first month.
- Gold will be above the floor cap come mid-September when college students flush with loans and high speed internet turn to slacking for the first time in their newly-independant lives. As for how much? No idea.
- Gear prices will rise strongly come mid-September for similar reasons; lots of new, affluent buyers, and all the sellers have quit or been banned. The sales rate may be twice what it is now.
- In the near term, activity and sales are going to fall off even more strongly because Steam Sales. I've bought a game a day using my RMAH profits. Most everyone with Steam has 5-10 new games to play.
[Edit: Interesting. Decided to edit out my screenshot since it's so low-res, but there appears to be no option for it...?]
Blizzard can do all they want to attempt to boost player's moral and thus the economy; but the economy isn't something that blizzard has control over. It seems to belong to the gold farmers/botters IMO.
I remember 1 day, while searching through the AH and I came across 2 pages full of 1000+ dps weapons out of the blue. All priced above 100million gold. This had lead me to believe that the gold sellers are cycling the self-injected gold through the economy by over pricing; knowing that many players don't have the time or patience to buy these weaps at the current inflated price.
So instead, they capitalize on the idea of getting the weapon fast via buying gold off their website. Sure, call me a skeptic and all, but considering this has been going on since before RMAH introduced gold selling it seems a plausibility. And my reasoning comes from simple arithmetic. If 1mil gold = 2 dollars, consider the following: For every weapon on the AH that's worth 200million gold, that's on average $400. But why consider Real Money? because the RMAH has a cap of $250. So taken all into consideration, the gold seller's system is flawless because people will buy gold because they want amazing weapons and don't want to wait for the lucky roll, and in the long run, the gold sellers make more Real Money off of the AH then the RMAH, all through the use of their perfectly balanced system.
Gold sellers sell vast amounts of gold, inflating the economy; then post up 200m+ weapons at a given time (When gold value drops, and people get hungry for gold). People purchase gold off their site to buy these items, the sellers get their gold back AND make a giant profit in terms of real money. Rinse. Repeat. Win.
Last edited by Vahlk; 21-07-2012 at 20:14.
Reason: Hate errors
I have to think that they only have so many of the "patch 1.xx will fix everything" cards left to play. I also imagine that there's been a huge decline in sales and/or players logging in to prompt Bashiok's end game suckage admission several weeks ago, and now this. If the problems aren't fixed quickly, there won't be much of a player base left to appease. It's really a shame too, because I see D3 as the shell of an excellent game with so much potential. Hopefully it isn't too late to fix.
Just about everyone on my friends list has been offline a month or more. Unless PvP is a hit in a big way this game is dead by the end of the year.
That's an understandably bleak projection but again I'd like to say that the burnout and the significant issues play a huge deal for this decline. Once either one of these factors is resolved there will be people returning to the game even if they play for just a fraction of the time they used to play. I'm fairly confident about this, since the game is not subscription based and it has something to offer that you might miss after taking a proper break.
it'll be interesting
you have "Mists of Pandaria" coming out "soon", so some the WoW players who got D3 for free may leave
you have Guild Wars 2, Borderlands 2, Torchlight 2, Assassin's Creed III, and Far Cry 3 all coming out 3rd and 4th qtr this year; so I don't see Moik's prediction of college students rushing to the RMAH coming true
with all those alternatives coming out it'll be difficult for the 1.04 patch or the PvP patch to bring back people who have left; and I'm sure many people will be splitting their time between more than one game
I'll definitely be here for the PvP; I can't wait; I think it'll be awesome
Guild Wars 2, Borderlands 2, Torchlight 2, Assassin's Creed III, and Far Cry 3 all coming out 3rd and 4th qtr this year;
That's a good argument. Howerver, you should take into account the possibility that some or even most of these games won't live up to their players' expectations and many will realize Diablo isn't half as bad as people make it out to be - it's just bearing the weight of a decade's worth of hype and expectations.
Most games nowadays, even the better ones, provide content for no more than a week or a month at max, unless their PvP works great which is very hard to achieve.