Argh, what are the odds?

**Asterism** · 16-06-2012, 14:55

Sorry, just needed to vent!
My four and only Enigmas that I've rolled (since my return to D2) all got +753 and +754 defense (one got 754 and the other three 753).
My only comfort is that +-25 defense isn't such a big deal.
It's a good thing I'm not rolling Faith or Grief =P

**Solar Ice** · 16-06-2012, 15:54

Hard luck but at least it's Enigma and not a Runeword whose roll makes or breaks it. All it means is that the next high-end RW that you roll will be near perfect!

**Archone** · 19-06-2012, 04:40

..or just the opposite! :P

**Maxpovver** · 21-06-2012, 21:21

This is my territory.

Assuming every defence roll has the same odds. Odds of getting 4 rolls of 753 DEF or 754 DEF: 4*(2/26)*(2/26)*(2/26)*(2/26) = 0,014%. Or 7142 : 1. Bad luck :P

**Archone** · 22-06-2012, 06:33

Actually its (1/26)*(1/26) no matter what def it will get. Same chance of getting the worst/best roll.

1/676 to get those 2 rolls.

Peace

**Maxpovver** · 22-06-2012, 07:03

I calculated the odds of getting 753 or 754, not just one defence roll. You are right about the fact that every defence roll has the same chance.

You are wrong about the calculation, he asked for the odds of 4 rolls, not 2 :P

I'll add another odds calculation: odds of getting for 1 time 754 roll and 3 times 753 roll: 4*(1/26)*(1/26)*(1/26)*(1/26)

**wyrmbreaker** · 23-06-2012, 18:12

stop saying ppl are wrong when you are wrong urself lol, there was 1 chance out of 7142 that he gets anything, yea but there were 4chance/26 that he gets 753 or lower (750,751,752,753) and 5chance/26 he gets 754 or lower. 4*(4/26)*(4/26)*(5/26)*(5/26) = 0.0875%
or 1/1142.44

**Maxpovver** · 23-06-2012, 23:02

Originally Posted by wyrmbreaker

stop saying ppl are wrong when you are wrong urself lol, there was 1 chance out of 7142 that he gets anything, yea but there were 4chance/26 that he gets 753 or lower (750,751,752,753) and 5chance/26 he gets 754 or lower. 4*(4/26)*(4/26)*(5/26)*(5/26) = 0.0875%
or 1/1142.44

Lol. Who are you? Read my posts again...

Peace

**Archone** · 24-06-2012, 05:44

Wow.. So much hate!

@Maxpovver: I missed a post, ofc you are correct. So am I.

Peace

**Maxpovver** · 24-06-2012, 10:12

Peace Archone! Have you been having fun with D3? Or did you go back to D2? I really want to play more D2 but I have been working much lately.

BTW, the odds of getting a perfect roll on your next RW do not increase when you had bad rolls. This is known as the 'gambler's fallacy'.