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  1. #1
    IncGamers Member Andy2702's Avatar
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    Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses)?

    (Brace yourselves, INB4 prediction/assumption/opinion coming up)

    My internet is shutting off every 5 minutes so I'll try not to ramble like I usually do.

    Basically, everyone knows what happened to the D2 economy. It was the best and worst thing to ever happen to the game. Too many illegitimate items, everyone had the same items after a couple of weeks, so on so forth. After a month or two, people went crazy magic finding and economics theory simply says oversupply = cheaper goods.

    I'm interested in D3's economy now with the separated loot system. Separate loots = potentially 4x the number of items generated (four separate batches created for each player in a 4 player game, "worst case scenario"). Back in D2, shared loot = 1/8x the number of loot generated (one fixed batch created split amongst 8 people in a 8 player game, "worst case scenario"). Of course not every game is going to have those number of players, hence "worst case scenario", but still... Won't this cause a ton of items (possibly 4 times the amount) to be generated, thus skyrocketing supply within a week or two, resulting in worthless auction items, especially with the transaction fees in the RMAH? Soon enough we'll be PAYING Blizzard commission to sell items (I'm kidding, I know about the 15%). If D2's oversupply of items was bad enough, are we going to see something 4x as bad (ignore the math, focus on the concepts .)


    Has this "issue" been addressed? I realize one of the solutions already implemented is the removal of pure MFing builds/game focus, but then again, the genre/goals of the game forces us to MF, so everyone will be doing some sort of MFing come late game. Also, crafting will serve as an item/gold dump, but is this enough? Anyone have a theory or prediction ?


    (I'll wait until a month after release and come back here to necro this thread if what I mentioned really does happen)




  2. #2
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Hrm... When you added more players in D2 didn't it increase the quantity of items dropped? I think an 8-player game would just have 8x the loot drop, even if *everyone* can see it. In D3 each person gets 1x the loot drops, so really it's the same amount of loot per payer, just distributed more fairly. Am I wrong?



  3. #3
    IncGamers Member Andy2702's Avatar
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Quote Originally Posted by nZifnab View Post
    Hrm... When you added more players in D2 didn't it increase the quantity of items dropped? I think an 8-player game would just have 8x the loot drop, even if *everyone* can see it. In D3 each person gets 1x the loot drops, so really it's the same amount of loot per payer, just distributed more fairly. Am I wrong?
    Perhaps for normal monsters, but I don't recall Baal dropping 32 items upon death.




  4. #4
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    I still expect the vast majority of loot dropped for everyone to be cracked sashes. In D2 I had a giant silo of cracked sashes and swam around in them.



  5. #5
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    High tier item prices actually went up in price in D2 before duping and botting got out of hand. Demand was still higher than the whole player base could deliver. I expect it will be same in D3. Couple months in you can get ok gear for free, but when it comes to high end inferno items it's post apocalyptic wasteland and every man for themselves.



  6. #6
    IncGamers Member Mithan's Avatar
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Well one thing to keep in mind is we don't know the drop rate for the good stuff. It could be super low in order to combat this. Hard to say.



  7. #7
    IncGamers Member Coolhwip's Avatar
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Item supply will actually decrease compared to D2 because of the hard 10 character limit per cd-key, no widely available duping methods, crude bots and not being able to run multiple copies of the game at once.

    In D2 you could have an unlimited number of accounts per cd-key and you could run 8 copies of the game at the same time. Remember the thousands of stolen cd-keys that were leaked all over the internet? I regularly used about a dozen set of keys from that list myself. A botter would have at least 2 or 3 accounts full of botting characters all running at once churning out far more items per hour that anyone in D3 will ever be capable of.



  8. #8
    IncGamers Member Tryzx's Avatar
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    The real problem here is: will there be botting?
    If yes, then the economy might suffer. Otherwise, I think that end game items will still be pretty rare even with separate drops from bosses.



  9. #9
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    The true high-end item supply will be MUCH lower in D3 for several reasons:

    1) No botting/duping/multiboxing.

    2) Uniques/Sets having extra random affixes. In d2, the randomness of a high end item was limited to a few extra percent on various affxies. In D3 you can roll a completely different affix. There will be a huge difference betewen a plain old Windforce Bow, and a Windforce Bow with +Critical Damage Bonus, +Life Leech, and +Multishot.

    3) Inferno difficulty. With the exception of Annihilus and Torch, every item in D2 could be obtained in Hell difficulty which is easy even with mediocre gear, and a complete pushover with good gear. On the other hand, D3 has Inferno-only items, and unless Blizzard is completely lying, Inferno will remain difficult for a very long time.

    The fact is that there really weren't TOO many highly desirable items in D2. A lot of builds used the same uniques, sets, or runewords. Crafted rares were the only truly random thing in the game (and the high end Runewords and Uniques generally eclipsed them). On the other hand, endgame D3 will have enough randomness to allow people to discover new and better items for a very long time.



  10. #10
    IncGamers Site Pal Bad Ash's Avatar
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    Re: Simple Economics Prediction - Separate Loot and a Diluted Economy (Auction Houses

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithan View Post
    Well one thing to keep in mind is we don't know the drop rate for the good stuff. It could be super low in order to combat this. Hard to say.
    What worries me is if blizz gets too greedy and dips their hand in the cookie jar and just raises drop rates compared to D2 to get more RMAH traffic. If the drop rates are what they were for Diablo 2...we should be ok. If you take out duping, there would be almost no high end rune words at all and they would be redonkulously high.

    Since blizz gets a 15% fee, you'd think they would want the drop rate to be LOWER? Making demand sky rocket making prices sky rocket, meaning they get a bigger chunk? do they want $7.50 from a $50 item? Or do they want those high end items selling like hotcakes and take many more 15% cuts from lower dollar amounts?




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