Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

[Enlil]

Happy lol...tho you are wrong.

ex 2 : 150,000 gold for 1$, you say it is incorrect.

Now, here is why you are wrong.

A min price for 1,000 g = 0.01$ AND a min price for a stack of gold auction = 1$ means that in the moment the market reaches this price :
-100,000 gold = 1$,
the gold price can only go UPWARDS.

As in :
-99,000 = 1$
-98,000 = 1$
and so on.


In other words, THERE WILL BE NO WAY TO SELL CHEAPER.

Does this sounds GOOD for you ? Because for the 2 degrees in economics guy (me) sounds like death of the RMAH.

This contradicts the "free market" and also contradicts the evolution of the game.The more and more people will reach lvl 60, the more and more gold will be available.Meaning the there will be ONLY one price :
-100,000 gold = 1$, or 200,000 = 2$ and so on.

There is only one market that have MIN prices : the communist market.And look how great it worked for them

There is another explanation, the one i keep saying it for days : Blizz KNOWS that the gold prices will stabilize WAY under 100,000 gps for a buck.Mostly likely where i said : 29,000-30,000 gps for a buck.

Because if not, than again i will prove right, and gold WILL be sold under the "floor" you so strongly believe that exists.

Free tip : The price for 1,000 gps can be in the SAME time 0.01$ AND 0.02$ for the buyer.
Free tip 2 : if you put the price 0.0001$ AND the total is 1$ or above...the system won't have anything against .
Free tip 3 : Beta is just that - Beta

"29,000-30,000 for a buck." is way over the floor putting the price far above 0.01 per 1k

"Free tip 2 : if you put the price 0.0001$ AND the total is 1$ or above...the system won't have anything against ."

This is just speculation, in beta it would not accept a sale value lower than 0.01 "so that was the floor in beta" but as you say beta is beta so we will have to wait and see if in live it does accept 0000.1 per thousand "Have a feeling I'll say" Told you so hahaha

[semakka]

Semakka you seem to forget that Blizz has all the monetary tools they can dream of right at their very disposal.
But even if the gold value train derails, they will actually need to use only one - gold sinks.

Once they see that gold is rolling down the hill, they can increase various costs, either directly (repairs/crafting/etc.), or indirectly - for example by increasing inferno difficulty (more fail => more repairs).

Or they can decrease the amount of gold income from mobs/quests, or even implement new gold sink mechanics whenever they see fit..

As the only true invisible hand of market in D3, is uncle BLIZZ

I did not forgot about that Bloomberg.They are the gods in their games and can do w/e they please.

If they see the gold going south, they will ofc implement measure to stop this.However, this means that IF the 0.01$ for 1,000 gps will make it live...then the gold will ALWAYS have a selling price bigger then 0.01$ per 1,000 gps.

And this is exactly what i said : Blizzard either is knows that gold will probably not even get close to 1,000 gps = 0.01$
as minimum value (and this is my best bet) and will do everything to keep it that way, OR the 0.01$ per 1,000 gps will be removed and keep ONLY 1$ as MINIMUM price for a gold auction.

There are 2 ways to keep gold prices stable : low gold drop rate or killer gold sinks (mainly repairs, those are unavoidable for most players) or a balance between gold drop rate and gold sinks.I bet on the low gold drop rates and i see inferno gold for most players in the range of 40,000 gps/hour...but in like 4-5 months after release.

IF the 0.01$ for 1,000 gps goes live and Blizz wants this min price to be SUSTAINABLE...most won't be able to make above 100,000 gps/hour regardless what, where and how they farm.

The make or break point for a 1,000 gps = 0.01$ as min price will be when most will be able to make 100,000 gps / hour or more.

And this is most likely WHY most won't be able to do this in first 12-18 months...if most will, then the min price for 1,000 gps will not make it and the only min price we will see will be the 1$ for a gold auction, regardless how many gps are in that auction (1,000 or 100,000,000).

[semakka]

This is just speculation, in beta it would not accept a sale value lower than 0.01 "so that was the floor in beta" but as you say beta is beta so we will have to wait and see if in live it does accept 0000.1 per thousand "Have a feeling I'll say" Told you so hahaha

One of us will totaly say "I'll told ya so".I know I will

[Enlil]

One of us will totaly say "I'll told ya so".I know I will

I might read your bragging sometime in september if you happen to be right, I'll be so busy making money.
Perhaps I'll send you a P.M when I see the 0.01 min enter value

I just can't see 0.000.1 happening, if it does where does it end 0.000000000.1 LOL

[debilistic]

semakka, what are you talking about? 40k gold per hour really? you tried beta? if the rate remains the same, I'll easily farm 40k gold per hour on normal, act1 (if I ever would be arsed to do so).

And remember, nothing hints that the rate would be changed, besides your imaginary calculations and, basically, speculation. 100k limit is pretty low, in any case, and most probably would be reached sooner or later, since in the free market which you supposedly study any price is legit. So the problem is quite real.

[BohemianStalker]

I havent read the whole topic, I am sorry if I will be repeating someone.

I for one believe that minimum allowed price for selling gold will get changed. I see it like this:

The fees were changed in past, auction house has evolved, and the current 1$=100 000g{max} was purposely set for BETA. If you can make 40k gold in beta right now for an hour it would be pretty hilarious these rates should stay the same.

40kg{hour} in beta level 13?
You have 15dps weapons right now
With 60level i can have weapon with 500dps easily
thats roughly 30x more effective.
Now even assuming it would help me to faster killing just by 10x(because there are factors we cannot change like position of monsters).
I would be able to make around 400k/hour.
That would mean 4$ per hour!(and I am not counting GF gear you can have at level 60..)
There is no way this is gonna happen.

Conclusion:

Rates will get changed. We dont have to know the precise gold rates for end game to make some meaningful assumptions. All we have to know is rough effectivity of level 60 farming low level locations to get estimation of gold drops. In my very conservative point of view view(very, very conservative) Players with good gear will be able to farm 400k/hour. In my personal view best players with top gear will be able to make about 1M/hour.

Gold Price conclusion: According to this I predict gold price around

1$=1Mg{max} for retail

[Enlil]

$1 = 1 million you say hmmmmm
Its in blizzards intrest to keep gold selling for as much as possible per 1k, so there 15% cut/profits are bigger.

This is why they had done the "0.01 per 1k" minimum to keep the worth of gold.
Plus the huge impact this would have on the real money value of crafted items and mats if you can buy 1 mill for a $.

Blizzard have to keep a decent value to things on the RMAH or it will destory the game. No one is going to farm for stuff when they can buy all the top items in game for a few dollars and if players stop posting stuff on the RMAH because of the tiny amount of money they can get for those items the RMAH will be die along with Blizzards long term profits.

[BohemianStalker]

$1 = 1 million you say hmmmmm
Its in blizzards intrest to keep gold selling for as much as possible per 1k, so there 15% cut/profits are bigger.

This is why they had done the "0.01 per 1k" minimum to keep the worth of gold.
Plus the huge impact this would have on the real money value of crafted items and mats if you can buy 1 mill for a $.

Blizzard have to keep a decent value to things on the RMAH or it will destory the game. No one is going to farm for stuff when they can buy all the top items in game for a few dollars and if players stop posting stuff on the RMAH because of the tiny amount of money they can get for those items the RMAH will be die along with Blizzards long term profits.

Well thats too bad that if you do some simple calculations you notice that 100k for 1$ is an unsustainable rate.

Really, come and bet on this one with me

[Enlil]

All calculations at this point are pure speclation.

If blizzard changes the 0.01 per 1k minimum, where does it end 0.00001 per 1k lol
If that happens no one will bother selling there gold, and goodbye blizzards 15% on gold sales.

They will change things as time goes on but I think they would rather change the drop rate of the gold rather than end up with 1 mil per $.
If it ends being that you can make a good hourly rate from farming gold, then whats the problem with it
No one is being forced to buy 100k per $ min gold price, buyers can either take it or leave it.

Gold has to remain viable and have value to it, or it will be like D2 all over again and the game will fail on the economy side of things.

Blizzard have people much smarter than you or me that have looked at this from every angle and gone over all the math many times.
First thing I'll be doing when the rmah is live is trying to put 0.0001 per 1k in the sale box and see if the system accept's it or if 0.01 is still the per 1k floor, as a figure around 0.00001 will have to be the case to have 1 mill per $ as you can't buy or sell less than $1 worth of gold.

We shall see .......... but I'm betting I'm right with 0.01 per 1k as was the case in late beta patches, I don't they changed it to 0.01 in the last couple of patches just for fun.

[jwfcp]

wut? if they wont sell 1k for less than $.01 then they wont list for less than $.01. If people wont buy for $.01 then the seller can try lowering their price, the market will find a common ground, let them have as many zero's as they need to do that, just so long as they put a dollars worth of goods on the line for any transaction. whats it cost to craft one of those high end pieces of gear? like 180k gold? and you think that people will legitimately pay $1.80 cash on top of all those mats? no way, no how. gold wont move on the rmah and blizzards cut will be nowhere to be found.