Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

[PearlOrion]

Note: Some wild assumptions here.

Crafting
Player skips crafting.

Gem Crafting
Player skips gem upgrades.

Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

Commodity Selling
Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

Grand Total excluding Gems
Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?

[semakka]

WAAAAAAY wrong assumptions LOL.

Let's see...first one :

"Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops".

Did you skipped math classes ? IF 1 legendary item drops every 16 hours , with 3 million players (lowest estimate) playing an average of 2 hours / day (very possible, one guy that farms 16 hours = 16 guys that play 1 hour) , this means 6,000,000 hours played / day.Split this to 16 hours (for one legendary) and in FIRST day there will be, holly momma , 375,000 legendary items !!!

At this rate, in 8 days, EVERYONE will have one legendary

EVEN assuming only rares and no legendary...in 8 days everyone will have a rare and in 3 months everyone will be decked in rares.

Also, the PRICE for an item with a drop rate of 375,000 will be...insignificant.There won't even be 375,000 lvl 1 gems droped / day man.

Next :
"Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15."

This rocks man ! Who in their RIGHT MINDS will spend 16 hours / day for a fcking 0.50 $ / day ?
Also...1,000,000 gold = 1 $.Really ?

I stop here, because your next afirmations are based on the above VERY WRONG assumptions.


I have made my own calculations (in last 5 days , and STILL keep calculating) to see at what price the gold will stabilize, in corelations with the estimate number of players that can play 8 hours / day, those that can play 6 hours, those with 4 and so on, how much gold they farm each, how much they farm in total, how much are the possible expenses, how much would a farmer consider to be WORTHY for him to sell the gold / items in order to make like 4 $ / day (otherwise, really, nobody will farm).

I CANNOT tell you the numbers, because they cover all posible gold prices (from 10,000 per 1$ till 50,000 per 1$) and it is really my own work and i keep it for me.Once the game starts, i will have an excel ready with all posible scenarios...can't tell squat, because everyone here is a potential GAH / RMAH shark

But, one thing i can tell ya for sure : the gold will stabilize at 29,000-30,000 per 1 euro (i am EU based), and will probably reach 50,000 gold per 1 euro in 4-6 months.

I also can tell ya that a farmer who plays 8 hours / day will be able to make a medium of 10 $ / day , which means 300 $ / month.
If he plays 16 hours, 600 $ / month.

[viledevil]

the guides are make believe.

go play d2 classic for a good approximation of drop rates.

dont waste your time making up stuff - learn the game and adapt when it goes live and we have more information.

[Enlil]

meaningless speculation

"Legendary item is $10" LOL

[Karpalo]

Also, the PRICE for an item with a drop rate of 375,000 will be...insignificant.There won't even be 375,000 lvl 1 gems droped / day man.

Sure there will. With that kind of pace there would be like 50 tier 14 gems made after a year IF every gem ever dropped would have been used to make one of those.

They will be hard to get, but without a doubt not that.

[Enlil]

Note: Some wild assumptions here.

Crafting
Player skips crafting.

Gem Crafting
Player skips gem upgrades.

Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

Commodity Selling
Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

Grand Total excluding Gems
Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?

1 million gold = $1 LMFAO

[Enlil]

.............

[Blackstream]

Right now gold prices can't go any lower than 100k per $1, since .01 per 1000 is the lowest it can be listed for. I don't think 1 legendary per 16 hours is a bad estimate though, especially for a character with decent mf gear. Now whether or not these legendaries will sell for $10 is another thing, but you'll probably at least get a roll. I mean, I got way more than that half assing my mf running in d2, it just so happens my drops were usually bad.

If they are that rare, however, that means legendary mats really are going to be stupid expensive.

[Medivon]

Note: Some wild assumptions here.

Crafting
Player skips crafting.

Gem Crafting
Player skips gem upgrades.

Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

Commodity Selling
Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

Grand Total excluding Gems
Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?

Anyone can assume anything and can come up with any crazy assumptions. Just read this.

[Enlil]

Anyone can assume anything and can come up with any crazy assumptions. Just read this.

I know what you mean. He is pulling numbers out of his ar*se.