Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

[PearlOrion]

Note: Some wild assumptions here.

Crafting
Player skips crafting.

Gem Crafting
Player skips gem upgrades.

Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

Commodity Selling
Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

Grand Total excluding Gems
Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?

[semakka]

WAAAAAAY wrong assumptions LOL.

Let's see...first one :

"Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops".

Did you skipped math classes ? IF 1 legendary item drops every 16 hours , with 3 million players (lowest estimate) playing an average of 2 hours / day (very possible, one guy that farms 16 hours = 16 guys that play 1 hour) , this means 6,000,000 hours played / day.Split this to 16 hours (for one legendary) and in FIRST day there will be, holly momma , 375,000 legendary items !!!

At this rate, in 8 days, EVERYONE will have one legendary

EVEN assuming only rares and no legendary...in 8 days everyone will have a rare and in 3 months everyone will be decked in rares.

Also, the PRICE for an item with a drop rate of 375,000 will be...insignificant.There won't even be 375,000 lvl 1 gems droped / day man.

Next :
"Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15."

This rocks man ! Who in their RIGHT MINDS will spend 16 hours / day for a fcking 0.50 $ / day ?
Also...1,000,000 gold = 1 $.Really ?

I stop here, because your next afirmations are based on the above VERY WRONG assumptions.


I have made my own calculations (in last 5 days , and STILL keep calculating) to see at what price the gold will stabilize, in corelations with the estimate number of players that can play 8 hours / day, those that can play 6 hours, those with 4 and so on, how much gold they farm each, how much they farm in total, how much are the possible expenses, how much would a farmer consider to be WORTHY for him to sell the gold / items in order to make like 4 $ / day (otherwise, really, nobody will farm).

I CANNOT tell you the numbers, because they cover all posible gold prices (from 10,000 per 1$ till 50,000 per 1$) and it is really my own work and i keep it for me.Once the game starts, i will have an excel ready with all posible scenarios...can't tell squat, because everyone here is a potential GAH / RMAH shark

But, one thing i can tell ya for sure : the gold will stabilize at 29,000-30,000 per 1 euro (i am EU based), and will probably reach 50,000 gold per 1 euro in 4-6 months.

I also can tell ya that a farmer who plays 8 hours / day will be able to make a medium of 10 $ / day , which means 300 $ / month.
If he plays 16 hours, 600 $ / month.

[Karpalo]

Also, the PRICE for an item with a drop rate of 375,000 will be...insignificant.There won't even be 375,000 lvl 1 gems droped / day man.

Sure there will. With that kind of pace there would be like 50 tier 14 gems made after a year IF every gem ever dropped would have been used to make one of those.

They will be hard to get, but without a doubt not that.

[semakka]

Sure there will. With that kind of pace there would be like 50 tier 14 gems made after a year IF every gem ever dropped would have been used to make one of those.

They will be hard to get, but without a doubt not that.

I don't know...50 or 80 tier 14 gems a year looks unbelievable ? Might be so.Than how much would be beleivable ? 500 per year ? 1000 per year ?

You think that tier lvl 14 gems will be for anyone ? Just think about only 5 sockets / player.Will 10% of the player base "deserve" to have all 5 sockets gemmed with tier 14 gems in one year ? Doesn't sound much, isn't it ? There HAVE to be like 10% of GOOD players.
Yes there are.However...this means : 500,000 x 5 sockets = 2,500,000 tier 14 gems.Every year.

The cost to craft a tier 14 gem is somewhere between 40 million (all pages and tomes farmed and tier 1 gems cost 100 for 1 gold) and 55 million (same, but tier 1 gems cost 10 gold a pop).
Now, you need to calculate how much is the rate gold : $, in order to see if it is FEASABLE to have 2,500,000 x tier 14 gems / year.
I did, and trust me...it IS NOT FEASABLE (or in other words will make the gold to be like 1,000,000 gold for 1$ in just 3 weeks or so = hyperinflation = ****ty economy = fewer RMAH trasactions = no more $$$ for Blizzard. Ain't gonna happend).

The thing is...tier 14 gems MUST be rare enough in order NOT to destabilize the economy.

How rare ? Well, maybe not 80 / year (as i said in my post - was just a sarcasm to show the guy the value of a legendary if there are 375,000 legendary drops / day) maybe not 150...but i am QUITE certain (again, based on many many calculations for a good number of possibilities - those i CANNOT say, not do i will ever sell a "guide" with them lol) that a HEALTHY number of Tier 14 gems cannot really be bigger than 700 to 1,000 per year.

They are suposed to be EXPENSIVE , hence RARE, otherwise the VALUE (cost 40 mil to 55 mil. up to a max of 75 million gold to craft) of one Tier 14 gem will NOT reflect the RARITY

Also to be taken into consideration is the small increase in stats from tier to tier.The point is : If 1 tier 14 gem = 3 x tier 13 gems = 9 x tier 12 = 27 x tier 11 = 81 x tier 10 and the increase is like 7 % from tier to tier (100 / 13 ), a tier 14 gems being only 30% better than a tier 10 one BUT 81 times more EXPENSIVE, the question is :

-Will it WORTH to craft tier 14 gems ?

Probably YES, but most will NOT sell them, because it IS VERY PROBABLE that a guy UPGRADING from tier 11 gems will PREFER to SPEND the same ammount to buy 9 x tier 12 gems.
9 x tier 11 upgraded to 9 x tier 12 gems = 9 x 7 % increase in stats = 63 %
1 x tier 11 upgraded to 1 x tier 14 gems = 7% + 7% + 7% = 21 %

A THEREE time increase with SAME gold or money.A no brainer.

This is why there won't be 1,000 x tier 14 gems crafted per year, but 81,000 x tier 10 gems.
In the same logic, there will be 1,000 BEST items droped per year, but also will be 100,000 of BEST (but 5% weaker) items droped per year and 400,000 BEST (but 10% weaker) items per year.

Gold value will not only be set by demand and supply rule, but also in close relation with crafting costs for top items and gems and with drop rate of those items and gems.

Soemthing VERY RARE and VERY EXPENSIVE (like tier 14 gems) must retain a Gold Value expressed in Real Money, because gold = real money, and if tier 14 gems will cost 50 million gold BUT will be so common that their real value to be at 20 $...
the gold parity with $ will count in millions per 1.

Everytime when one wants to assume SOMETHING about Diablo 3, like drop rates for gold and items, crafting costs, how many tier 14 gems will be, he MUST take into account the RMAH, Blizzard statements that GOLD will be VALUABLE and the FACT that Blizzard wants to make money with RMAH.

Rare items will be RARE and cost TOP NOTCH real money (like 1,000 $) for crazy gamers and rich people.
In the same time there will be enough "cheap" (like 5-10-20 $) items for the vast majority of casuals.

And everything is because Diablo 3 will have a RMAH.
Without RMAH, there can be 10,000,000 legendaries and 10,000,000 tier 14 gems, Blizzard won't really care about this.


But RMAH changes everything.


(Edit) Example from real life that works in Diablo 3 :

-There are cars that sells for 500,000 $.The producer, in theory, can make 100,000 of those cars per year.
However, the selling price is a barrier for most people.The producer will sell maybe 1,000 per year.If the income will suddenly rise to 1,000,000 $ / year for most people, the producer can easily sell all 100,000 cars per year.

But the $ will have same value as the indian ruppie or w/e third world country.

This is why there won't be many "500,000 $" cars in Diablo 3.If many...they won't be VALUABLE.And the WHOLE point of RARE items (tier 14 gems, BiS gear and weapons) is for them to be VALUABLE.
If the producer (Blizzard) decides to increase "the production" of BiS items and lvl 14 gems...the whole ideea of VALUABLE will be flushed in the toillet.

No valuable ITEMS (in real life or Diablo 3) means that EVERYTHING will be CHEAP.If everything will be cheap so will be the money earned by Blizzard.
If all cars will cost the same...the value is LOST.There won't be anything to compare those cars with.

And vithout VALUE...what is the point of earning money ?

Since everything will be dirt cheap.

[SmasheR]

Probably YES, but most will NOT sell them, because it IS VERY PROBABLE that a guy UPGRADING from tier 11 gems will PREFER to SPEND the same ammount to buy 9 x tier 12 gems.
9 x tier 11 upgraded to 9 x tier 12 gems = 9 x 7 % increase in stats = 63 %
1 x tier 11 upgraded to 1 x tier 14 gems = 7% + 7% + 7% = 21 %

.

If only you can socket them

[Enlil]

.............

[viledevil]

the guides are make believe.

go play d2 classic for a good approximation of drop rates.

dont waste your time making up stuff - learn the game and adapt when it goes live and we have more information.

[Enlil]

meaningless speculation

"Legendary item is $10" LOL

[Enlil]

Note: Some wild assumptions here.

Crafting
Player skips crafting.

Gem Crafting
Player skips gem upgrades.

Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

Commodity Selling
Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

Grand Total excluding Gems
Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?

1 million gold = $1 LMFAO

[Blackstream]

Right now gold prices can't go any lower than 100k per $1, since .01 per 1000 is the lowest it can be listed for. I don't think 1 legendary per 16 hours is a bad estimate though, especially for a character with decent mf gear. Now whether or not these legendaries will sell for $10 is another thing, but you'll probably at least get a roll. I mean, I got way more than that half assing my mf running in d2, it just so happens my drops were usually bad.

If they are that rare, however, that means legendary mats really are going to be stupid expensive.