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OP Updated.
Another thought after listening to old podcast....
It is in the Blizzard best interest to make Inferno as hard as they possibly can, instead of their usual policy to make it challenging but somewhat 'accessible', and the main reason for that is their implementation of RMAH. If they want consistent high volume of transaction for long after launch, then it makes sense to create a hard challenge where players are more compelled to upgrade their gears, and now we have a catch-22, the best gears is in late inferno but you also need(maybe?) the best gears to get there...
10 days, and it will be a guild who does it
For characters which are played entirely by one person, 3-4 times longer.
Did Bashiok have a prediction on how long it would take? I forgot about other countries. Given that, yes, someone from one of the asian countries will probably the first to do it, I would revise my initial estimation down from 175 days down to about 120 days. But for the US I'd say still closer to my initial estimate.
Probably wont be one person who clears Inferno first, but multiple people playing an account together to make played time somewhat equal real time passed.
I bet someone or some people have beaten inferno in 4 days.
If someone was lucky with drops probably even faster, but set me up for 4 days.
Normally, I'd be compelled to be cynical (when am I not?), but it is clearly in Blizzard's best interest to make inferno as difficult as possible - which means, turn it into a big, sloppy mess of a gearcheck.
Why? Simple. If you wish to see your character progress, you will have to make use of the auction house. Gold, you say? Bull$hit, I say. If I find a valuable item, you can bet your *** that I'll be putting it up for the real thing.
While they may indeed try to turn the game into a gearcheck for $ purposes, one must realize that, despite the wide itemization, I'm going to believe that only a few mods are going to be deemed vital to progress through the game. Damage on a weapon, vitality, your primary stats and resistances come to mind. So, you won't need to be -that- lucky to find not the perfect gear, but rather, the necessary gear with such stats on it.
I'll say two weeks. It will be difficult. Luck will mostly come in play (can your Barb find that cruel 300% ed mace first?), though not overwhelmingly much of it will be needed to make progress.
Assuming that we will have maintenance days, that I hope will be for hours since this isn't a MMO game, I'd give the totally hardcore 6 days per week of gaming time. Someone can probably clear Normal in 3 days, Nightmare for a week, Hell for 2 weeks and Inferno for 1 month. A total of 1 month, 3 weeks and 3 days. A total of 54 days.
My guess is 10 days for a good 4 player group who will play like 14 hours a day.
Normal - 1 day
Nightmare - 1 day
Hell - 2 days
Inferno - 6 days
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