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Well since blizzard decided to give us free respecing at any time during play, at the same moment they killed leveling and creating new characters just to try different builds. I am up for this, leveling was pointless in daiblo 2, you knew that each item you get on normal will be thrown away after a while, and nightmare didn't offered much except for baal and worldstone runs.
The point here is, most of us will probably get to inferno in a matter of 2-3 weeks max, (although i think i get there in 1.5-2 weeks)
add to that another month or two grinding in hell/inferno and you pretty much have end game gear. With no reason whatsoever to lvl up the same character again and again, character selling option on the rmah is pointless, and once we all have the 5 characters lvled and geared up there is no room for improvement.
It will be both in blizzard's and the hardcore diablo 3 players interest, if blizzard would offer monthly events like ubertristram was in diablo 2, where you can get items that only drop upon completing the event thus allowing more space for improvement. Furthermore i would suggest this events to be unlockable only for inferno characters and, bare with me here, if you die during that event you cannot unlock it again and therefor you cannot get the items that only this specific event would offer.
In this way i think blizzard can make the rmah pretty useful place for characters that missed their chance or were under-skilled enabling them to trade for the things they need.
There you go, sums up why RMAH won't die after 6 months, new players will join and they will need the stuff. That's pretty much the point of the RMAH and people will play arena so there will always be a need for top notch stuff. Gems take so much time to get to high level, new items will come in new expansions and people will keep stocking up to prepare for new patches / content, be with events or expansions. So no, RMAH won't die unless there isn't a need for new stuff anymore. Sure in d2 you could get anything you want, but it's rampant with bots, hopefully it won't be close to it in D3 and items might get very rare and actually hold a value. RMAH items isn't for the random crap stuff you get, it's for high end stuff and people "need" gold this time around so it's going to hold up pretty well. Not every D3 player is a no-lifer that's going to clear inferno in 1-2 months.
You didn't considered the number of players that will buy diablo 3 on release date vs number of ppl that will buy it after 6 months, year, etc...
Imo the 2nd number will be next to nothing compared to the first few weeks of diablo 3 release. If that is the case, then whenever a new guy comes to the rmah there will be so many items from old time players and therefore you cannot count on new players to revive the rmah. The only thing that can do that is constant new events/items after 5-6 months of the release coz i consider that will be the time when elite items might start stockpiling.
I would also love to hear you guys on the idea of 1 time events every month or so, where if you complete the event you get some uberpowered item or two but if you fail/die the event is locked and cannot be attempted a second time, thus leaving the rmah the only place where you can get that item.
End game gear will be based on crafted items, you will not find those as loot. You will buy them from the market house or craft them yourself.
Snowcatcher: just fyi d2 stayed on the top 10 sales charts for years.
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D2 had no way to remove items from the economy..the only solution was ladder resets.
In D3 to craft an Inferno level rare will require a player to salvage several infero level magic,rare and legendary items just to craft an item that then rolls 6 random mods and might end up being junk.
To get the rolls you want might take numerous attempts all of which strip high lvl items from circulation.
I think the RMAH will flourish, sadly at the expense of 1to1 community interaction. Get ready for the big accessible, anonymous auction house experience.
There will always be "new players" and there will always be "noob veterans"... RMAH is just fine...So long as we can sell there will always be people willing to buy, If people wanted to try and take up a position to argue against that ask anyone who has participated in the RMT side of a "closing" game... In most games even after closure notices (like say Star Wars Galaxies) you could still sell credits... Why? Simple... The vast majority do not base their purchases on "investment" principles or long term returns, they buy what they want because they want it and they want it now, if they didn't want it now they would just play the game and get it through "normal" channels.
RMT thrives in all games for the same reason MMO gaming has gotten so remedial in game play, a great many people don't want complicated, they don't want to think or work or do much of anything when playing a game, they want instant gratification and so long as there are items that require some degree of effort to obtain there will be people willing to spend money to bypass that effort... It really doesn't have all that much to do with game play or money, the money isn't the motivator, it's the mechanism.
The only real threat to the RMAH is in its own implementation, game play changes may push the market one way or another but the only thing that could ever "kill" the RMAH is Blizzard deciding they don't want it any more... It doesn't matter what happens to the "system" that drives one person out, there will always be another person with a different view of the situation that steps in to profit from it, it's just the nature of doing business.
Blizzard does not have to do anything to "keep the RMAH alive"... We will do that ourselves, I know it's hard to understand without having first hand experience with just how silly some people can get when spending money but I can guarantee that anyone without that first hand experience is going to GROSSLY underestimate the monetary actions of their fellow players, people want to spend money and it doesn't matter how much "sense" the purchase makes... Hell look around your own home and I bet you could find at least a couple hundreds bucks worth of junk you should have never spent money on but did... The RMAH doesn't need Blizzard to be ingenious with implementation, it will thrive regardless of what happens to the game itself simply due to human nature.
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