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I can't wait for the release and since I'm so excited, I gotta talk about Some "Hidden rocket science secret tips" about making money in diablo 3 for the first month. Now the awesome super colourful title is over, let's get to the meat:
Keep your stuff to a minimum which should be just enough to survive and kill fast. If you're level 20, your highest craftable item level shouldn't be over level 20. Every piece of items gathered must be examined in order to see if you should melt it down the Cauldron of Jordan to sell it fast for gold or if you should Salvage it into crafting materials for bigger profit but with more working time which will reduce your gold per hour ratio.
I know, I'm only talking about pro stuff and rocket science, but what about best return on investment? What's better in your opinion? Melt down down items into gold for immediate profit or salvaging items into mats and selling mats for better profit?? But what happen if you have 200 scraps held into the rmah for 48 hours + your fee?? You must think twice before posting because the profit margin is high, but the losses could be high too.
It's really hard to say at this stage. It will depend hugely on the difficulty of the end game.
If we learned something from the Diablo 2 it's that in the end it comes down to playing hours. Human couldn't compete with bots that never rest and casual playing style won't never be able to compete with hardcore grinder.
The most profitable way will probably be to rush to end game content as soon as possible and get your hands on the good stuff before inflation starts to affect later tier items. If you can't go balls deep hardcore power rush mode right from the release then i would assume that your best bet is to invest everything on gems.
They will hold their value and possibly even climb in price when people start to comprehend how hard it will be to actually craft a max tier gem. If i have understood the gem crafting system right it's almost like you would try to get your hands on high runes in diablo 2 by collecting only low runes and combining them in the cube. It will be never ending task so when people have some what acquired acceptable gear then the next thing on to-do list will be getting those max level gems.
It is very hard to tell without seeing the whole picture but IMO if you want to make money off of the initial surge in the RMAH you wont craft anything, you wont buy bank tabs or invest in artisans. You'll sell everything now before the prices fall.
Your gear will come from the AH, from the crafters. I think you will be able to pick up above average gear for very cheap. You wont need the optimal stuff until much later in the progression. Artisans are slot machines. There will be a ton of stuff crafters will be making and selling as long as they think they can get just above the value of what it will break down into. They will saturate the market with mediocre gear that will keep you upgrading often and cheaply.
Only if you get the initial price right, if the perceived value was too low, you end up loosing profits.
With the posting fees, I don't think people will be putting mediocre gear on there, they will end up loosing money in the end since there will be lots of people doing the same thing and probably duplicate postings (1 or 2 random affixes things). Post it, don't sell it, loose gold. Might be different with the RMAH, I don't think lots of people will be putting items there past the free limit since not everyone is willing to invest money into SELLING.
I might be wrong, never bad to speculate haha.
The problem is that, early on, it will probably be better to just craft some stuff and keep playing, rather than go through the process of selling and buying. Simple due to time investment in browsing the AH that could be invested in just leveling your character further. Of course in the end it depends on how fast we can level with just drops VS with crafted gear, and how expensive it is to level the blacksmith compared to the crafting costs - If leveling is the main portion of the price, then AH might be the better solution, but if the man portion of the price is the crafting, might as well pay a little extra on leveling him to save yourself time.
I would guess that crafting materials will cost more than the items that can be crafted with them, but... surely some folks will buy already-crafted items for more than their materials :P
So, rush to high level craftables, find some errors in the market, buy commodities, and craft away... but not too long, or the market will catch up!
Good crafted items will obviously be worth more than their materials, for the simple reason that bad ones (that are much more common) will be worth less than their materials. How much more/less? We can never really know. Whether crafting will be a net gain or not will probably be impossible to judge, because if it was possible, it would have been a break-even (after also taking into account the cost of time you spend on the process and possibly other factors).
Get to NM ASAP, normal is a waste of time.
Then work from there.
Captain Obvious is strong in this Thread.
My thought is that people will be buying up gold on the RMAH in the first month to pay for shared stash space. I say make a Gold Find demon hunter with +GF gear
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