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  1. #1

    The Greatest Depression

    Anyone else here watching the coming economic avalanche with great interest? Things have really been picking up speed lately as Greece collapses, Italy and Spain are paying unsustainable amounts on their debt, Germany (the "savior" of the EU) just suffered from a failure to cover on their bond auction, France is on the verge of losing their AAA credit rating, and the UK struggles under a crippling 500% total-debt-to-GDP ratio.

    Good news for Americans in the short run: the mass exodus from the euro into the "safety" of the dollar is likely to drive prices down as the dollar appreciates in value.

    Bad news for Americans in the long run: lowered treasury yields from the high demand are going to eat pension funds alive, we've gone from $15 trillion dollars in debt to $15.1 trillion in debt in just the last week (over 100% government debt-to-gdp!), and our banks are about ready to pop themselves unless Bernanke starts helicoptering in pallets full of newly-printed cash.

    So, who else is up for some good ol' fashioned survivalism?

    "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."



    ------------------------------------------
    "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"

  2. #2
    IncGamers Member BobCox2's Avatar
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    Trying to call it never goes well Saro

    Just saying.

    A lot of us have been waiting for years

    Ask vdzele



  3. #3
    IncGamers Member Technomancer's Avatar
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    I've been watching with great interest the people who are convinced everything's on the brink of collapse.

    You can't buy that kind of entertainment.





  4. #4
    Europe Trade Moderator krischan's Avatar
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    Money, debts and bonds are just a measurement unit of trust put into others, so the value of money etc. depends a lot on what others believe, no matter how silly these beliefs might be. Maybe you are underestimating the problem.

    I hope you don't believe that your monetary savings are safe all the time. In the recent centuries, those without land or industry had a far greater chance to became poor or extinct than those without money (not counting countries which are small enough to fill certain niches) and you probably don't want to be among the wrong ones at the wrong time. So I assume you have a piece of land or you can produce something which will be useful at nearly all times. If nobody wants your money, it's worthless.

    Germany couldn't sell all 10 year bonds in their recent auction which means that the market is currently satiated with respect to investments with interest rates of 1.6% or so. However, that might change quickly when there aren't enough other means of investments available which are considered as safe by other people. I don't believe that German bonds are 100% safe, but they are safer than most other bonds and that's enough to find buyers at a price which is more to the liking of the Bundesbank.

    It seems the US currently doesn't produce results at all regarding their budget and deficit problem. The other countries don't care about how the US produces these results or why there are none, they will just have a look at what the situation is like and then react accordingly. Allies might be more patient, but enemies aren't. In any case, nobody will be waiting until the US have elected their next president.



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  5. #5
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by SaroDarksbane View Post
    Anyone else here watching the coming economic avalanche with great interest?
    Yes, very much so. Two words: fiat currency. They have all collapsed in the past.

    I look forward to it, actually. It's a tooth that needs to come out. These things take time, Bob and Techno. It could be drawn out for another decade or two, who knows.



  6. #6
    IncGamers Member vdzele's Avatar
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    I posted this more than 3 years ago. Just after Lehman failed.

    Quote Originally Posted by vdzele View Post
    Well guys I have to go for 1 week and I wonít have internet to post. Wilderness does not offer that comfort.

    So your lives are going to change and itís going to be very interesting while you enter the depression. You will have something interesting to tell to your grandsons when you get old. I have survived one, horror, very terrible and it lasted 10 years. Usury Lords are bored and they have decided to reconfigure The Matrix. When you get desperate they will offer you The Solution for Your problem. They always do, so donít be depressed how long itís going to last. Eventually some politician will come on TV and make a proposal that you never dreamed off ...

    As llad12 says

    Have a nice day
    This guy knows



    and this guy has some solutions





    Last edited by vdzele; 24-11-2011 at 17:20.

  7. #7
    IncGamers Member jmervyn's Avatar
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by SaroDarksbane View Post
    Anyone else here watching the coming economic avalanche with great interest?
    If 'interest' is the right word.

    But you knew I was.
    Quote Originally Posted by SaroDarksbane View Post
    France is on the verge of losing their AAA credit rating,
    Krischan is smug in the knowledge that he will be a citizen of the re-emerging Holy Roman Empire - though he may not be aware of the Biblical speculation about that.
    Quote Originally Posted by SaroDarksbane View Post
    Good news for Americans in the short run: the mass exodus from the euro into the "safety" of the dollar is likely to drive prices down as the dollar appreciates in value.
    Yeah, but unfortunately my "401K" is in international funds, which for some insane reason are pegged more to European futures than to Asian ones.
    Quote Originally Posted by SaroDarksbane View Post
    lowered treasury yields from the high demand are going to eat pension funds alive
    So much so that it would almost seem like it was done deliberately, neh?
    Quote Originally Posted by SaroDarksbane View Post
    So, who else is up for some good ol' fashioned survivalism?
    For many years now. Plus, I finally have a base (and no I won't tell you where). Now I just hope my Steyr AUG wasn't actually stolen during my travels...
    Quote Originally Posted by vdzele View Post
    This guy knows
    Palast is a good news writer, but that appears to be a book/screenplay. If you were just throwing it out there, then I'll throw this back at you.

    I don't think things will be as bad as we imagine, based on what FerFal has written - i.e. not Fallout 3 so much as living overseas in a third world country and only being able to shop in the commissary once a month. But things will be very, very bad. Once the hammer falls, I imagine ten years before America gets back on its feet - or far longer if this sort of Leftist utopia continues.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yahoo News
    A Massachusetts fisherman pulled in an 881-pound tuna this week only to have the federal authorities take it away. It sounds like a libertarian twist on the classic novella by Ernest Hemingway, The Old Man and the Sea, but for Carlos Rafael, the saga is completely true.

    Rafael and his crew were using nets to catch bottom-dwellers when they inadvertently snagged the giant tuna. However, federal fishery enforcement agents took control of the behemoth when the boat returned to port. The reason for the seizure was procedural: While Rafael had tuna permits, fishermen are by law only allowed to catch tuna with a rod and reel.



  8. #8
    IncGamers Member jmervyn's Avatar
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    I have to say, though, if this is actually part of Palast's book then it sounds like a great read:
    Quote Originally Posted by Apparently Greg Palast
    There is a legend told among the Inupiat Alaskans who live above the Arctic Circle, “Etok Tames the Green People.” It goes like this:

    In the Old Days, as today, the peoples on the edge of the Arctic Sea killed whales. It’s just what they do. It’s what they eat. But the Green People didn’t like that, and so the Green People set out one day in their fancy-*** black powerboat to stop the people of the Arctic Sea from doing their whale killing thing.
    Spoiler



  9. #9
    IncGamers Member jmervyn's Avatar
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    I think I'll keep poking this thread with a stick, since we are all watching the headlights of the same approaching train engine. Just from different sides of the pond.

    Question - "Should the Fed save Europe from disaster?"

    Answer - No. Sorry, guys, I love you all dearly but you know where you can stick your Socialist Utopia. The problem is, once your cities are in ruins (yet again) we'll no longer have the scratch to come fix them up for you. Still, I don't think it's going to really be the Dark Ages part deux...

    Incidentally, about "Utopia" - from wiki,
    The word comes from the Greek: οὐ ("not") and τόπος ("place") and means "no place".




  10. #10
    IncGamers Member nurman's Avatar
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    Re: The Greatest Depression

    I think the real question is that can the Fed afford to save Europe.



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