RMAH in trouble at launch?

[nEgativezEro]

I've been thinking about this the past couple days. Maybe I've missed some info somewhere, but I'm wondering how strong the RMAH will be out of the gate.

A lot of complaints early on about putting real money into the system were quelled with the promise of a number of free auction listings per to be determined length of time. What I've been wondering about is how many users will be willing to fork over that initial investment to get the RMAH going. Obviously under the assumption the RMAH is going smoothly, it's easy to sell items under the free listings to get some money in the account to start purchasing. However at launch everyone will be starting from $0. Naturally there will be plenty of people who don't care about putting real money into their account, but I think the majority of the fanbase isn't all that interested in putting extra cash out of pocket into the game.

Starting at launch, any items in the auction house will have to purchased with real money, not just money earned from selling items since anyone buying will be forced to use real money until, and if, the market gets going. If sales on the RMAH at launch are too slow, the GAH might gain a lot more momentum out of the gate and become to default, go-to place for items, instead of the RMAH. I can see the big ticket items on the RMAH by players looking to make a few bucks, and the knowledge that someone out there has the money to burn on an item, but the majority of the smaller, average items may well end up almost exclusively on the GAH.

This is all just a bunch of theorycrafting on my part, and I may have overlooked things that invalidate my arguments, but this has been on my mind for a couple days now, and I wanted some outside opinion on the matter. So what does the community think? Is there enough interested in the RMAH for it to take off out of the gate, or will the majority of the fanbase be too reserved to put up the initial cash for startup and stick to the all in-game GAH?

[Concupisco Quaestus]

Coming from the RMT industry I can tell you the RMAH is in no real "danger" of anything, there are millions of people who won't bat an eyelash when putting RL money into a video game, I mean you don't need Stephen Hawking brain power to see people spending money to enjoy their game play, I'm pretty sure the vast majority reading this forum is spending at least 15$ a month for one game or another, what's the difference whether that 15$ a month is spent in a monthly sub or through some micro-transactions? We should all be used to the pay2play business model by now, paying for an item isn't much different than paying for "content", especially when the item is the content.

The only complications facing the RMAH are in implementation and as such those complications can be managed if they should arise.

I know you have absolutely no reason to trust anything I say as I'm just some tool on the Internet but the industry itself proves minute by minute that people are willing to spend hundreds if not thousands of dollars on their leisure time, even if that leisure time is in a video game.

The RMT industry sells millions of dollars monthly in games without a "legal" RMT system and that industry has been around since Everquest, if the RMAH was in any real danger from people not being willing to spend money on a video game the current multi-billion dollar RMT industry wouldn't exist... Just some food for thought.

[Azzure]

I agree with CP, while the first few days will see very low volumes in the RMAH (its the start of the game, there is really nothing to spend money on yet), that will quickly change when people start using gold-sinks and have a thirst for more stuff.

[AngleWyrm]

I often spend money on computer related entertainment. Sometimes it will be $3-4 to stream a movie I want to see, sometimes it is $5 for a bunch of points in my current facebook game. And I can see this small purchase model working quite well on me; I'll probably buy five bucks worth of this or that from time to time.

It might be slower for the first few days, but with millions playing I expect there will be interesting and valuable stuff for sale quite fast.

[Azzure]

I think we tend to underestimate the power of entertainment. And also underestimate our ability to splurge on ourselves.

When you have this awesome Barbarian character, on this awesome new shiny game that you are really enjoying, and there is this really really awesome sword that would be perfect for you, it glows red and has loads of damage, I think most people will purchase it without a second thought. We are a nation of spenders, we buy nice clothes, we buy delicious food, we fork out money daily for enjoyment and to feel good. What is better value for money, a movie ticket for $15 that lasts about 2 hours, or a Sword for $15 that lasts you a few weeks and provides an enhanced experience playing a game, in which you can sell later for possibly the same value? Personally I'd take the sword.

I tend to not state my opinion on how much real money will flow through the RMAH because there are a lot of variables, and a lot depends on how items work out (which are still under development). But let me just say that my estimates are extremely high. I think the RMAH will blow all our predictions away, and will be vastly more popular than anyone imagined.

[nEgativezEro]

I guess it's been a while since I've played games in this manner. The only MMO i've played since D2 came out was Aion, briefly. I suppose in retrospect, though not entirely the same, it's not too different from me spending 2 bucks on DLC songs for Rock Band every so often. Though it's a small amount per purchase, over time it adds up more.

Still as far as D3 is concerned, I personally have a hard time spending real world cash on something that will only have a limited use until it's replaced by something better. Of course building up funds through selling and using that to purchase is fine. I hadn't taken into consideration what you said about the ability to resell the items you purchase later on, once you upgrade. That definitely help things out, and makes the items almost more of a rental (with a future refund) than a purchase.

I guess I just underestimated how people are willing to spend on things like this nowadays. Especially with the excitement of everything new in Diablo 3.

[Sulle]

If everyone had the same thought about the RMAH as me, then it would certainly be in trouble hehe.

Naturally it will go slower in the beginning, and for most parts having items for sale in gold, but as time progreses, you can expect to see better items, but sadly I donīt think it will be in trouble. You know some people will even try and level as quickly as they can in the beginning, without enjoying the game itself, so that they can farm in inferno, and earn some good money.

[Nastydevil]

I think we tend to underestimate the power of entertainment. And also underestimate our ability to splurge on ourselves.

Let me use some of Azzure's work to bring my point on the table.

People "Like us", here I talk about people who are involved into the money making, trading, marketing niche market. Often we forget that outside there's a lot of people who doesn't think the same way we do. We don't see through the blur because all of our environment is composed of technical and mechanical stuff and so is the people we discuss every day. BUT if you go outside and meet the general crowd, all they want to do is to spend money. There's a world industry waiting outside the door. We forget to add the "Entertainment" to our equations.

Now my general thought: Slow 1-2 days, then skyrocket of buyers and sellers. I suppose it will be 2 or 3 times bigger than what we could imagine in terms of volume and money value.

[Astroquicky]

We are a nation of spenders

Off-topic: Azzure, I really enjoy your posts, so the following comment is in no way an attack on your person, but in fact a comment to people from the US in general.

On these forums, I hope "We" is the diablo 3 community, not the American people. I come from a small country (Belgium), so I'm more easily annoyed by these kinds of comments, but I think most European people would agree that it's a little rude to think that "We" only includes the American people, despite the fact that the European population on these forums is likely much smaller than the US population.

I'm sure you did not purposefully want to exclude Europeans from the conversation, but to anyone who reads this with an open mind, next time you say "we", please consider who the "we" really is and specify according to the people you're talking to, e.g. "We Americans are a nation of spenders." or "We Westerners are a population of spenders." Thanks for reading, and please continue with the RMAH conversation .

[Azzure]

Off-topic: Azzure, I really enjoy your posts, so the following comment is in no way an attack on your person, but in fact a comment to people from the US in general.

On these forums, I hope "We" is the diablo 3 community, not the American people. I come from a small country (Belgium), so I'm more easily annoyed by these kinds of comments, but I think most European people would agree that it's a little rude to think that "We" only includes the American people, despite the fact that the European population on these forums is likely much smaller than the US population.

I'm sure you did not purposefully want to exclude Europeans from the conversation, but to anyone who reads this with an open mind, next time you say "we", please consider who the "we" really is and specify according to the people you're talking to, e.g. "We Americans are a nation of spenders." or "We Westerners are a population of spenders." Thanks for reading, and please continue with the RMAH conversation .

No probs. I'm actually from Australia, but I was referring to people in general whom would also be playing Diablo 3, nations was the wrong collective word to use.