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## Shopping claw probability

I'm trying to shop for some 6 ls claws at Anya and was wondering what's the probability to get one. So i started calculating and would like someone to check my results:

I'm shopping with lvl 89 atm and i'm looking for Cunning prefix AND +3 Lightning Sentry staff mod.

Here are some base chances i came up with:
• Chance claw at anya will be exceptional or elite (no staff mods on normal claws) when shopping with lvl 89: 17.032% (excep) + 2.504% (elite) = 19,536%
• Chance to get prefix (or both prefix and suffix on an item) = 25% (prefix) + 25% (prefix + suffix) = 50%
• Chance to get Cunning prefix. Shopped item at lvl 89 will be clvl + 5 = ilvl 94. At ilvl 94, there's total 318 frequency of prefixes with Cunning being frequency 1. This means chance is 1/318*100 = 0,314465% (rounded)
• Chance for number of staffmods are 40% of item getting 1 staffmod, 20% chance of getting two staff mods and 10% chance of getting 3 staffmods.
• Chance to get tier 5 skill (which ls is in) is 50%
• Chance of 5 tier skill being picked is actually ls is 1/5 = 20%
• Chance of staff mod being +3 is 10%
• Using three previous probabilities, staffmod rolling +3 light sentry is 0,5 (50% tier 5) * 0,2 (20% ls) * 0,1 (10% +3) = 1%

So now, if i put this all together i get formula
Chance of excep/elite claw * chance of prefix * chance of cunning prefix * (chance of 1 staffmod * +3 ls chance + chance of 2 staffmods * 2 * +3 ls chance + chance of 3 staffmods * 3 * +3 ls chance)

When i put the numbers in i get
0,19536 * 0,5 * 0,00314465 * (0,4 * 0,01 + 0,2 * 2 * 0,01 + 0,1 * 3 * 0,01) = 0,0000033788

Chance to shop such claw being 0,0003788%

Let's say anya sells 3 claws every time on avarage meaning chance of getting claw on one run is 0,0011364%

Ofcourse i would not mind getting some 5 ls claw either, but the odds will probably still be pretty high.

If i'm correct, i'll probably give up

Sources i used are:
http://members.iinet.net.au/~dcarson/shopcalc.html
http://diablo2.ingame.de/spiel/expan...=lod&patch=111
http://diablo2.diablowiki.net/Item_Generation_Tutorial

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## Re: Shopping claw probability

I think that the part in brackets should be: 0,4*0,01 + 0,2*(1-0,99^2) + 0,1*(1-0,99^3). Not that it makes much difference in the final result but still...

The algorithm that determines the number of claws spawned is a mystery for me too. Maybe someone with more knowledge here could enlighten us. I guess that "3 claws on average" is your wild guess.

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## Re: Shopping claw probability

The math is close enough, the chances of finding those claws are incredibly low

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## Re: Shopping claw probability

BTW, half of the exceptional claws cannot have staffmods as well.

If you want the perfect claw, it has to be a greater talon with the quickness suffix and 2 sockets from Larzuk, of course. If you also demand it to be ethereal, you cannot buy it in a shop at all.

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## Re: Shopping claw probability

Those that you buy from Anya all can have staffmods.

Some practical results - ~20h of Anya shopping and I got 3 x 5 LS claws (2 x GTs 1 x SQ) and one 4LS SQ. No 6LS ones. On bright side, you can also shop 4os of life armors, 3/20 gloves of various sorts, JWoD (lol) and some others. Too bad I didn't know that back when I was shopping claws, so this is result of checking only claws, and not all things Anya has.

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## Re: Shopping claw probability

Originally Posted by Victus
I think that the part in brackets should be: 0,4*0,01 + 0,2*(1-0,99^2) + 0,1*(1-0,99^3). Not that it makes much difference in the final result but still...

The algorithm that determines the number of claws spawned is a mystery for me too. Maybe someone with more knowledge here could enlighten us. I guess that "3 claws on average" is your wild guess.
I had the feeling bracket part may be wrong. Yes, 3 claw on avarage is just and observation. She always has anywhere from 2 to 7 claws for sale.

Originally Posted by krischan
BTW, half of the exceptional claws cannot have staffmods as well.

If you want the perfect claw, it has to be a greater talon with the quickness suffix and 2 sockets from Larzuk, of course. If you also demand it to be ethereal, you cannot buy it in a shop at all.
I know Krischan, but i didn't want to push it into extreme . Main thing for me is to get +6 ls OR at least +5 ls claws.
The perfect trapper claw would also have not just +3 lightning sentry, but 3 staff mods +3 Light Sentry, +3 Death Sentry, +3 supplemental skill (claw block / mind blast / cloak of shadows / shadow warriror)

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## Re: Shopping claw probability

Originally Posted by krischan
BTW, half of the exceptional claws cannot have staffmods as well.
Originally Posted by frozzzen
Those that you buy from Anya all can have staffmods.
As frozzzen said, anya only sells type of claws that can have staffmods, but they must be exceptional.

Originally Posted by frozzzen
Some practical results - ~20h of Anya shopping and I got 3 x 5 LS claws (2 x GTs 1 x SQ) and one 4LS SQ. No 6LS ones. On bright side, you can also shop 4os of life armors, 3/20 gloves of various sorts, JWoD (lol) and some others. Too bad I didn't know that back when I was shopping claws, so this is result of checking only claws, and not all things Anya has.

I only spent ~3-4 hours on shopping and it has been very tiresome. That's why i decided to check what are my chances .
So far i got i think three Cunning Claws with not staff mod (2x GT + 1x SQ) and one +2 Assa +1 LS SQ.

Edit: Sorry for two posts in a row.

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## Re: Shopping claw probability

Oh, I didn't know that about Anya, but I've never shopped for claws before because I know that it's much more frustrating than looking for e.g. echoing javelins.

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