We will soon be launching a new pre-game-release website feature in which we will come to an educated consensus in this forum thread on what we predict the value of certain things will be in Diablo 3 at a certain time frame.
Everyone on the forums can contribute to this, providing their own reasoning and calculations on the subject. When a consensus is reached here, it will be published on a new page on the site that has all of our findings for all to see.
The first one we will look at is the Exchange rate between gold and $USD after the first day of release!
I'll submit my calculations first:
I predict that the average player on the first day will accumulate around 6000g per hour. From levels 1-9, Beta tells us that players make around 3000-5000g per hour. From levels 9-18, this should go up by roughly 30%. 18-27, this should hit around 60%.
So if each player makes 6000g per hour, how much do you think 1 hour of playtime is worth in real money? I'm thinking around $5 on the opening day. Possibly a lot less, depending on how weak the gold-sinks are at that level. (oversupply)
Demand is a big question mark on the first day. I predict that demand could possibly be very low on the first day, as the Artisan Gold-sinks don't come to full throttle until later in the game when your gear stabilizes.
Hence I'm going to guess that demand is half of supply. Therefore, going back to a very basic formula...
If 6000g = $5 with 1:1 supply and demand then:
6000g = $2.5 with half demand
$1 = 2400g
Submit your contributions below!