Anyone ever got a Zod rune in single player?

**bill_n_opus** · 06-04-2006, 20:06

Originally Posted by Tiggsy Mcfiggle

well spotted, thanks. Guess I'll have to pray to the gods of the hellforge then.

Pray hard. I finally moved my summoner past hellforge ... and got a Hel.

The absolute lowest rune Hell Hellforge can drop. Arrrggghhh!

**Llathias** · 06-04-2006, 22:04

Originally Posted by Rizzo

You should read some books on statistics my dear friend. It's alot more complicated than that, and yes the chance of a second jah is indeed mathematically influenced by the chance of getting the first one. Then we're talking about the chances of getting two jah's in 6 months, and those odds are worse than getting a single. I dunno if I read your post right, but it seems to me that you say that the chance of getting two jahs is the same as getting one, in the same period of time. And that is simply not correct.

Actually, Rizzo, what he said was correct. Your fallacy of thinking is called "the gambler's paradox". It can be summarized as "in a fair system with independent outcomes, the previous outcomes have no effect on those to come". I realized my wording is not clear, so I'll give an example: Say you're flipping (right word?) coins, and you got 5 tails in a row. One would instinctively think that it's time for a heads for the 6th try, however, there is still an equal chance of 1:2 for both tails and heads. This is based on the assumption that the coin is not biased on tails (ie. we have a fair coin). Coming back to our case of rune drops, say you've played the game for 3 years, and one of Pindle's minions dropped a Jah. The possibility that the next minion you kill will drop another Jah is the same as it has always been (ie. getting a Jah a few seconds ago has no effect on the chance for another Jah drop).

All that said, I don't think it's reasonable to expect getting a very high rune (namely, Cham and Zod) in one's lifetime. Of course, some very lucky people will get those runes, but some people win the lottery too!

**jjscud** · 06-04-2006, 22:43

Originally Posted by Llathias

Actually, Rizzo, what he said was correct. Your fallacy of thinking is called "the gambler's paradox".

Ok, i remember my statistics class, or at least I remembered that I really disliked it, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

You are right if you are looking at single events. The chance of a Jah dropping on the next kill are the same if you haven't seen a Jah for the past 100K kills as it is if the past 5 monsters have all dropped Jahs.

But I think that looking at a collection of events changes this. If you kill 5 monsters, the chance that 1 Jah dropped is significantly different than the chance that 5 Jahs dropped. Same thing over the course off 100K kills (or however many over 6 months). The chance that 1 Jah drops over 100K kills is quite different from the chance that 5 Jahs drop over those 100K.

So basically, the statistics for the next drop have nothing to do with the past drops, but we can look at a collection of drops and say that X set of items is much more unlikely than Y set of items.

Edit: Yeah, I reread Rizzo's and the past Jah influencing the next drop is wrong but the two Jahs over six months is more unlikely that 1 Jah is right, I believe. A slight wording difference.

**Rizzo** · 06-04-2006, 22:45

Originally Posted by jjscud

But I think that looking at a collection of events changes this. If you kill 5 monsters, the chance that 1 Jah dropped is significantly different than the chance that 5 Jahs dropped. Same thing over the course off 100K kills (or however many over 6 months). The chance that 1 Jah drops over 100K kills is quite different from the chance that 5 Jahs drop over those 100K.

that was my point yes. :smiley:

**corax** · 06-04-2006, 22:50

..../scratches head

.../leaves

**AceOfSevens** · 06-04-2006, 23:13

Basically, if one jah has already dropped, the chances of another dropping are the same as they were for the first. If none have dropped yet, the chances of two dropping in a given period are significantly lower than one.