What are the chances of...

[Georgemofo]

gambling a rare circlet, if any at all?

[Zavior]

I think its 10% for rares.

[BFD]

IIRC, The chance for rares actually increases as your character level increases. Or maybe that's just the chance for upgrading. RTB will know the right answer/formula when it comes to gambling.

[Oddity]

Look here ---> http://www.battle.net/diablo2exp/basics/gambling.shtml

In particular

The items you receive will be from most common, to most rare: Magic Items, Rare, Sets, Uniques. Set and Unique Items are extremely rare. The chance for Uniques is 1 in 5,000 and 1 in 2,000 for Sets. The chance for Rares is 1 in 10. The level of quality of the items will be from most common to, most rare: Normal, Exceptional, Elite. The chance for Exceptional items is 1 in 11 (or 9 in 100) and the chance for Elite items is 1 in 30 (or 33 in 1,000). You will mostly get Magic items which may or may not be worth anything to you (hence Gambling).

These chances don't change - you can get higher quality items as you level up, meaning you get the chance at better pre/suffixes, but the chance to get rare/unique/set is always the same.

[Georgemofo]

Ok, thanks so much.

Hehe, time to gamble like mad.

[Thrugg]

While the AS quote is correct on the chance of a rare being 1 in 10 and not changing, almost the entire rest of the quote is wrong. So wrong I can't just leave it sitting there

The chance of gambling a unique is 1 in 2000.
The chance of gambling a set is 1 in 1000.
The numbers they list were for the beta of 1.10 and they improved them for final release.

The chance of exceptional and elite upgrades does depend on your character level, it is no fixed. This is probably what BFD was remembering.

The chance of an upgrade depends on the item level (which is randomly determined from your char level, -5 to +4) and the qlvl of the item you are hoping to upgrade to.

For exceptional upgrades it is
(1 + 90 * (ilvl - qlvl)) / 10000
and for elites it is
(1 + 33 * (ilvl - qlvl)) / 10000

You can sort of see how they have misinterpreted that in the AS quote. If you happened to have ilvl 10 more than qlvl, they would be (almost) right.

As an example, if you are clvl 70 and you gamble a Short Sword... the ilvl is determined randomly between 65 and 74, equal chance of each. Suppose you got a bit lucky and it came out as ilvl 72.
The exceptional ugrade of a Short Sword is Gladius, qlvl 30. So there is a (1 + 90 * (72-30)) / 10000 = 37.8% chance of an upgrade to a Gladius (pretty good).
The elite upgrade of a Short Sword is a Falcata, qlvl 56. So there is a (1 + 33 * (72-56)) / 10000 = 5.29% chance of an upgrade to a Falcata.

[BFD]

Thanks Thrugg thats what I was thinking about.