Lottery Drop Rate for Legendary/Rare Items? Even $300+ per month is slim chance?

[PearlOrion]

Note: Some wild assumptions here.

Crafting
Player skips crafting.

Gem Crafting
Player skips gem upgrades.

Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

Commodity Selling
Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

Grand Total excluding Gems
Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?

[semakka]

WAAAAAAY wrong assumptions LOL.

Let's see...first one :

"Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops".

Did you skipped math classes ? IF 1 legendary item drops every 16 hours , with 3 million players (lowest estimate) playing an average of 2 hours / day (very possible, one guy that farms 16 hours = 16 guys that play 1 hour) , this means 6,000,000 hours played / day.Split this to 16 hours (for one legendary) and in FIRST day there will be, holly momma , 375,000 legendary items !!!

At this rate, in 8 days, EVERYONE will have one legendary :D :D :D

EVEN assuming only rares and no legendary...in 8 days everyone will have a rare and in 3 months everyone will be decked in rares.

Also, the PRICE for an item with a drop rate of 375,000 will be...insignificant.There won't even be 375,000 lvl 1 gems droped / day man.

Next :
"Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15."

This rocks man :D ! Who in their RIGHT MINDS will spend 16 hours / day for a fcking 0.50 $ / day ?
Also...1,000,000 gold = 1 $.Really ?

I stop here, because your next afirmations are based on the above VERY WRONG assumptions.


I have made my own calculations (in last 5 days , and STILL keep calculating) to see at what price the gold will stabilize, in corelations with the estimate number of players that can play 8 hours / day, those that can play 6 hours, those with 4 and so on, how much gold they farm each, how much they farm in total, how much are the possible expenses, how much would a farmer consider to be WORTHY for him to sell the gold / items in order to make like 4 $ / day (otherwise, really, nobody will farm).

I CANNOT tell you the numbers, because they cover all posible gold prices (from 10,000 per 1$ till 50,000 per 1$) and it is really my own work and i keep it for me.Once the game starts, i will have an excel ready with all posible scenarios...can't tell squat, because everyone here is a potential GAH / RMAH shark :D

But, one thing i can tell ya for sure : the gold will stabilize at 29,000-30,000 per 1 euro (i am EU based), and will probably reach 50,000 gold per 1 euro in 4-6 months.

I also can tell ya that a farmer who plays 8 hours / day will be able to make a medium of 10 $ / day , which means 300 $ / month.
If he plays 16 hours, 600 $ / month.

[viledevil]

the guides are make believe.

go play d2 classic for a good approximation of drop rates.

dont waste your time making up stuff - learn the game and adapt when it goes live and we have more information.

[Enlil]

meaningless speculation:withstupid:

"Legendary item is $10" LOL

[Karpalo]

Also, the PRICE for an item with a drop rate of 375,000 will be...insignificant.There won't even be 375,000 lvl 1 gems droped / day man.


Sure there will. With that kind of pace there would be like 50 tier 14 gems made after a year IF every gem ever dropped would have been used to make one of those.

They will be hard to get, but without a doubt not that.

[Enlil]

Note: Some wild assumptions here.

Crafting
Player skips crafting.

Gem Crafting
Player skips gem upgrades.

Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

Commodity Selling
Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

Grand Total excluding Gems
Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?

1 million gold = $1 LMFAO

[Enlil]

.............:evil:

[Blackstream]

Right now gold prices can't go any lower than 100k per $1, since .01 per 1000 is the lowest it can be listed for. I don't think 1 legendary per 16 hours is a bad estimate though, especially for a character with decent mf gear. Now whether or not these legendaries will sell for $10 is another thing, but you'll probably at least get a roll. I mean, I got way more than that half assing my mf running in d2, it just so happens my drops were usually bad.

If they are that rare, however, that means legendary mats really are going to be stupid expensive.

[Medivon]

Note: Some wild assumptions here.

Crafting
Player skips crafting.

Gem Crafting
Player skips gem upgrades.

Item Selling
Assuming that the average price of a Legendary/Rare item is $10 and after a daily play session of 16 hours, only 1 such useful/sell-able item drops.

After a month, the max total revenue from just selling items is at most $300.

Gold Selling
Let's assume that the gold price is $1 per 1M. Within 16 hours, the player is able to collect 500k gold. So within a month, the player is able to earn an additional of $15.

Commodity Selling
Wildly assume that 1 Magic Item drop every 5 min. In 1 hour, you get 12. In a day, you get 192 items. Finally, in a month, you get 5,760 items which salvages to 5,760 Magic Powder and 1,152 Rare Teeth.
Assume 1 Magic Powder costs 1K gold and 1 Rare Tooth cost 5K gold.
Total sales = 5.760M x 2 = 11.52M = $11.52

Grand Total excluding Gems
Grand Total = $300 + $15 + $11.52 = $326.52

So are these calculations crazy or the $1k miracle Guide is more accurate?



Anyone can assume anything and can come up with any crazy assumptions. Just read this.

[Enlil]

Anyone can assume anything and can come up with any crazy assumptions. Just read this.

I know what you mean. He is pulling numbers out of his ar*se.:lol2:

[Blackstream]

To really guess how much money gold will make, I don't think anyone here, not even semakka really knows. But we can guess. There's three main factors

How much people can make
How much things cost
How much people are willing to spend

Now, it was dropped that gold in later states will be dropping in piles of 200-400, which probably includes the nephalem buff, but not crazy amounts of gf gear, so upping that estimate to an average of lets say just 500 a drop, versus like the 20 we get in beta, I know there are people that can get 20k an hour, but I think that might have been with selling gear, so lets lower that to 10k an hour. That's about 500 gold pickups in an hour. That means with 500 gold in drops, assuming you can farm with the same efficiency in regards to monster killing (big assumption), that's about 250k an hour.

Now cost wise, lets assume this is late enough that only repair costs are factoring in. How much is stuff gonna cost to repair? Well, it was mentioned that it seems like it was, "Blacksmith upgrade, jeweler upgrade, repair costs, upgrading gear from vendors, pick 2". So given that, and given that they likely weren't running around with boss gold find gear (but probably some because they needed gold), and 3 of those aren't needed anymore, but the cost of repairs likely went quite a bit up, lets say 300 of that 500 gold per drop goes to repairs (which, as a sidenote, would mean the average non-gf based builds would probably be at a net loss of gold), that leaves a net income of 100k gold an hour.

Now at the minimum gold sell price, you're making about $1 an hour. If it's around 50k per $1 (not gonna bother converting to euros) like semakka thinks, it'll be more like $2 an hour. That would shape my estimate to an 8 hour day to about $8-$16 a day.

There's heavy assumptions laden in this though. What if you only send 50k towards repairs an hour, and you get 200k an hour? Well then you're making $2-$4 an hour.

But the final factor is what people are willing to pay. Now, if people paid what time was worth, then if the average gf per hour was 100k, people would be paying at least $7 an hour or about 7 cents per 1000 gold (as a sidenote, look what a huge difference an extra couple of cents makes on profits at this level... if there's any price flunctuation at all at this level, it'll make for potentially massive profits).

But people are kind of selfish and won't wanna do that. More importantly, it's something like 170k a crafting roll for just gold. People are willing to pay $5 for grab bags that have one or two rolls for something rather nice in other mmos, so if we lower that to $4 for 200k, that's about $2 for 100k, or right about what semakka was guessing. I really don't know what people are psychologically gonna be willing to spend though. At minimum, $1 for 100k, people are paying about $2 a roll. Literally cannot go lower than this right now. What people are willing to pay is really the part I absolutely cannot predict though, so we'll just have to wait and see.

[semakka]

Sure there will. With that kind of pace there would be like 50 tier 14 gems made after a year IF every gem ever dropped would have been used to make one of those.

They will be hard to get, but without a doubt not that.

I don't know...50 or 80 tier 14 gems a year looks unbelievable ? Might be so.Than how much would be beleivable ? 500 per year ? 1000 per year ?

You think that tier lvl 14 gems will be for anyone ? Just think about only 5 sockets / player.Will 10% of the player base "deserve" to have all 5 sockets gemmed with tier 14 gems in one year ? Doesn't sound much, isn't it ? There HAVE to be like 10% of GOOD players.
Yes there are.However...this means : 500,000 x 5 sockets = 2,500,000 tier 14 gems.Every year.

The cost to craft a tier 14 gem is somewhere between 40 million (all pages and tomes farmed and tier 1 gems cost 100 for 1 gold) and 55 million (same, but tier 1 gems cost 10 gold a pop).
Now, you need to calculate how much is the rate gold : $, in order to see if it is FEASABLE to have 2,500,000 x tier 14 gems / year.
I did, and trust me...it IS NOT FEASABLE (or in other words will make the gold to be like 1,000,000 gold for 1$ in just 3 weeks or so = hyperinflation = ****ty economy = fewer RMAH trasactions = no more $$$ for Blizzard. Ain't gonna happend).

The thing is...tier 14 gems MUST be rare enough in order NOT to destabilize the economy.

How rare ? Well, maybe not 80 / year (as i said in my post - was just a sarcasm to show the guy the value of a legendary if there are 375,000 legendary drops / day) maybe not 150...but i am QUITE certain (again, based on many many calculations for a good number of possibilities - those i CANNOT say, not do i will ever sell a "guide" with them lol) that a HEALTHY number of Tier 14 gems cannot really be bigger than 700 to 1,000 per year.

They are suposed to be EXPENSIVE , hence RARE, otherwise the VALUE (cost 40 mil to 55 mil. up to a max of 75 million gold to craft) of one Tier 14 gem will NOT reflect the RARITY

Also to be taken into consideration is the small increase in stats from tier to tier.The point is : If 1 tier 14 gem = 3 x tier 13 gems = 9 x tier 12 = 27 x tier 11 = 81 x tier 10 and the increase is like 7 % from tier to tier (100 / 13 ), a tier 14 gems being only 30% better than a tier 10 one BUT 81 times more EXPENSIVE, the question is :

-Will it WORTH to craft tier 14 gems ?

Probably YES, but most will NOT sell them, because it IS VERY PROBABLE that a guy UPGRADING from tier 11 gems will PREFER to SPEND the same ammount to buy 9 x tier 12 gems.
9 x tier 11 upgraded to 9 x tier 12 gems = 9 x 7 % increase in stats = 63 %
1 x tier 11 upgraded to 1 x tier 14 gems = 7% + 7% + 7% = 21 %

A THEREE time increase with SAME gold or money.A no brainer.

This is why there won't be 1,000 x tier 14 gems crafted per year, but 81,000 x tier 10 gems.
In the same logic, there will be 1,000 BEST items droped per year, but also will be 100,000 of BEST (but 5% weaker) items droped per year and 400,000 BEST (but 10% weaker) items per year.

Gold value will not only be set by demand and supply rule, but also in close relation with crafting costs for top items and gems and with drop rate of those items and gems.

Soemthing VERY RARE and VERY EXPENSIVE (like tier 14 gems) must retain a Gold Value expressed in Real Money, because gold = real money, and if tier 14 gems will cost 50 million gold BUT will be so common that their real value to be at 20 $...
the gold parity with $ will count in millions per 1.

Everytime when one wants to assume SOMETHING about Diablo 3, like drop rates for gold and items, crafting costs, how many tier 14 gems will be, he MUST take into account the RMAH, Blizzard statements that GOLD will be VALUABLE and the FACT that Blizzard wants to make money with RMAH.

Rare items will be RARE and cost TOP NOTCH real money (like 1,000 $) for crazy gamers and rich people.
In the same time there will be enough "cheap" (like 5-10-20 $) items for the vast majority of casuals.

And everything is because Diablo 3 will have a RMAH.
Without RMAH, there can be 10,000,000 legendaries and 10,000,000 tier 14 gems, Blizzard won't really care about this.


But RMAH changes everything.


(Edit) Example from real life that works in Diablo 3 :

-There are cars that sells for 500,000 $.The producer, in theory, can make 100,000 of those cars per year.
However, the selling price is a barrier for most people.The producer will sell maybe 1,000 per year.If the income will suddenly rise to 1,000,000 $ / year for most people, the producer can easily sell all 100,000 cars per year.

But the $ will have same value as the indian ruppie or w/e third world country.

This is why there won't be many "500,000 $" cars in Diablo 3.If many...they won't be VALUABLE.And the WHOLE point of RARE items (tier 14 gems, BiS gear and weapons) is for them to be VALUABLE.
If the producer (Blizzard) decides to increase "the production" of BiS items and lvl 14 gems...the whole ideea of VALUABLE will be flushed in the toillet.

No valuable ITEMS (in real life or Diablo 3) means that EVERYTHING will be CHEAP.If everything will be cheap so will be the money earned by Blizzard.
If all cars will cost the same...the value is LOST.There won't be anything to compare those cars with.

And vithout VALUE...what is the point of earning money ?

Since everything will be dirt cheap.

[Karpalo]

3 regions, probably around 10 millions players total, not evenly distributed, but still safe to say there will be millions of players in each region. <375k gem drops a day is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too conservative estimation.

Anything concerning RMAH is purely speculation at this point so i won't go there, but i just felt that i had to point out that <375k tier 1 gems a day is utterly ridiculous estimation. There probably never would be a tier 14 gem, or perhaps one tier 14 gem if someone would dedicate his life towards getting one.

[semakka]

3 regions, probably around 10 millions players total, not evenly distributed, but still safe to say there will be millions of players in each region. <375k gem drops a day is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too conservative estimation.

Anything concerning RMAH is purely speculation at this point so i won't go there, but i just felt that i had to point out that <375k tier 1 gems a day is utterly ridiculous estimation. There probably never would be a tier 14 gem, or perhaps one tier 14 gem if someone would dedicate his life towards getting one.

THERE IS A TL;DR !!! :jig:

When ESTIMATING how many gems will drop, you must know that the ONLY ones who will drop will be tier 1 - tier 5.ALL of the superior tiers MUST be crafted.Every craft will cost 50 gold.

I just was sarcastic when i said that won't be 375,000 tier 1 gems droped / day ONLy to point out the 375,000 legendaries / day.

You did not bothered to read my last post (i know it is long) to see the LOGIC behind the reasoning of WHY tier 14 gems will be extremely rare.
Are you more happier with 10,000,000 tier 1 gems droped / day ? If yes, you should also know that those 10,000,000 gems if crafted into tier 14 gems will ONLY mean 18,8 x tier 14 gems / day ?
Assuming a VERY realistic 2 hours played / day / player with also a VERY realistic 5,000,000 players, this means 10,000,000 hours / day.

10,000,000 hours / day and 10,000,000 tier 1 gems / day = 1 x tier lvl 1 gem / hour.
Wanna DOUBLE the drop rate ?
1 x tier 1 gems / 30 min / player, OR, in other words, 37 x tier 14 gems / day.OR, in other words ONLY 13,724 tier 14 gems / YEAR.
Let's double the drop rate AGAIN, will ya?
1 x tier 1 gem / 15 min / player >>>>>>>>>>>>> 27,448 Tier 14 gems per YEAR.

5 sockets / player = 25,000,000 sockets.In order to have a BIG chunck of player base (let's say 20% - 1 million players) with 5 x tier 14 gems, this means that there will have to be 5,000,000 x tier 14 gems available.
To have those 1 million players each with 5 x tier 14 gems in ONE YEAR :
-there will have to be 13,968.63 x tier 14 gems / day, OR
-274,944,544.29 x tier 5 gems droped per day (max tier that can drop), OR
-22,270,508,087 x tier 1 gems droped per day.

This means, with 5 million players playing an average of 2 hours / day (very realistic figure) for a total of 10 million hours / day :
-the drop rate for tier 5 gems = 190,933 / hour/ player OR 3182 / minute / player OR 53 / second / player.

So, 53 x tier 5 gems to drop EVERY second for EVERY player ?

Let's say that those 20% player to have their 5 x tier 14 gems on TEN YEARS...this means 5 x tier 5 gems /second/player.

If i do this for tier 1 gems will mean 4293 gems /second/ player for ONE YEAR gearing of 20% of the players, or 429 / second / player for TEN YEARS gearing 20% of the players.

BACK to reality.

There is common sense to accept a drop rate of 1 gem / hour / player or even 2 gems / hour / player.Assuming ONLY tier 5 gems, this means 20,000,000 x tier 5 gems / day.This means 1,016 x tier 14 gems / day or 370,840 tier 14 gems / year.

So, even in the ABSURD case of 2 gems / hour / player (1 gem every 30 min - not going to happend), there will be only 370,840 tier 14 gems per year.Split this number to 5 sockets/gear/player and you will realize that ONLY 74,168 players will have their gear with 5 x lvl 14 gems at the end of ONE YEAR.

71,168 player out of 5,000,000 means 1,48 %.

TL;DR :

So, at a drop rate of 2 x tier 5 gem/hour/player, in ONE YEAR, only 1,5% of the players will have 5 x tier 14 gems socketed on their gear.
You thinks it is "unfair" that only 1,5% of the players to have this chance?

Well, if you want, let's say 30% to have 5 x tier 14 gems socketed on their gear in one year, than you MUST understand that there will HAVE TO BE a drop rate of 40 x tier 5 gems / hour / player.
Or one tier 5 gem EVERY 90 SECONDS / player.

So, what you think it is MORE LIKELY going to be happend :
- 40 gems /hour / player (to please 30% of the players in one year) , OR
- 2 gems / hour / player ?

And the above case is FOR tier 5 gems.For tier 1 the drop rate must be 81 times HIGHER :
- 3,200 gems / hour / player
- 162 gems / hour / player

IT WILL BE ABSURD to have a drop rate of gems (regardless if tier 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) bigger than 2 gems / hour / player.
Most likely, the drop rate will be like 1 gem / hour / player for tier 5 gems.

Do not be amazed if you can't have more than 1 gem / hour.The tier 14 gems MUST be scarce enough to be expensive enough.
It is NOT about pleasing the majority of players, but to make it so that only 1% of the players to reach their maximum potential with tier 14 gems.

For the majority, there will be plenty of tier 8 tier 10 gems to socket up (729 to 81 times more gems than tier 14).If the top 1% will have tier 14 gems, 99% will also have tier 8 to 10 gems (after one year).

What do you want ? Everyone with fully socketed with tier 14 gems in one year lol ?

Case closed.Class dismissed.

[Eagle]

Every craft will cost 50 gold.

lol, you might want to check the current datamined beta client gem combine costs. Here's a hint, they scale up with levels and they start way higher than 50g.

If people are going to pull numbers out of there *** they should at least only do it for numbers we haven't seen. (Yes costs could well change for release. But datamined numbers are better than totally made up numbers.)

http://diablonut.incgamers.com/jeweler if you don't know where to look for the numbers.

[semakka]

lol, you might want to check the current datamined beta client gem combine costs. Here's a hint, they scale up with levels and they start way higher than 50g.

If people are going to pull numbers out of there *** they should at least only do it for numbers we haven't seen. (Yes costs could well change for release. But datamined numbers are better than totally made up numbers.)

http://diablonut.incgamers.com/jeweler if you don't know where to look for the numbers.

Thx Eagle.

This new crating costs ( WAAAAAY higher ), are just enforcing my theory that tier 14 gems will be even more scarce that everyone best estimates.

I think the drop rate will be quite low ( less than 1 x tier 5 gems / hour / player) to make up with the new costs that Eagle so kindly let us know.

The higher the crafting cost, the lower the drop rate.ANd the other way around.

Be ready for 2,500 $ for a tier 14 gem...

[semakka]

Damn...i should have seen this coming.

Because it looks like the repairs and BS crafting gold sinks weren't on par with JC crafting costs.Now JC is the gold sink that was supposed to be.

Still people outhere that think of a rate of 100,000 gold per 1$ ?

My stabilized rate of 29,000-30,000 gold per 1 $ estimated even without knowing about new beta crafting costs starts to look very realistic to me.

[galzohar]

If gold is worth less than 1$ per 1mil, unless Bliz change the system (which they may very well do), people will simply not list gold. Nobody will pay you more $ than your gold is worth simply because you can't list it any cheaper. But again I highly doubt Blizzard will let that happen. Changing how much gold stacks for in the RMAH is extremely easy and can be done indefinitely until people can list gold for affordable prices again.

[Enlil]

Damn...i should have seen this coming.

Because it looks like the repairs and BS crafting gold sinks weren't on par with JC crafting costs.Now JC is the gold sink that was supposed to be.

Still people outhere that think of a rate of 100,000 gold per 1$ ?

My stabilized rate of 29,000-30,000 gold per 1 $ estimated even without knowing about new beta crafting costs starts to look very realistic to me.


"Still people outhere that think of a rate of 100,000 gold per 1$ ?"

As you should know the minimum amount of gold for $1 cannot be less than 100k

Minimum sale price: $0.01 per 1k * 100 = $1
"you can't sell less than $1 worth of gold"

$1 per 100k is the floor. :omg: the price can only go up from $0.01

[jwfcp]

yes, we all know 100k gold is nothing, if people can make 20k an hour from 50g stacks in the beta, they will make 200k an hour from 500g stacks live, its not rocket surgery. probably more once they all settled in and cozy with their uber sets and optimal grinding strategies. if people want to pay $2 to be able to not need to farm gold for an hour (and you will need it), then thats providing people an opportunity to farm gold for $2 an hour, making $1k in a month like this would push you to nearly an 18 hours day. even kids would rather be out raking leaves or whatever. so the floor isnt terrible, still dont like it, but its not a crisis.

[semakka]

Yep, minimum sale for 1,000 is 0,01$ which results in and we cannot sell in stacks worth less than 1$.

Which means minimum sale for a stack of 100,000 gold = 1$

A stack of 20,000 units of gold = 1$ >>>> 200 units of gold = 0.01$ >>>> 1,000 units of gold = 0.05$.

As you can see, i sell the price for 1,000 units of gold is 0.05$, which is HIGHER than 0.01$, in OTHER words it is BIGGER than the minimum price allowed.

The floor you are talking about is because you can sell only in THOUSAND of units, because the BUYER can buy also in THOUSANDS.

If i have an order for 40,000 gold for 2$, the buyer CANNOT buy 20,500 units if gold from be BUT 20,000 or 21,000 units.
The seller also CANNOT list 20,500 gold or 20,700.There will have to be MILTIPLE of 1,000 with min 1,000 gold in the stack.

The fact that there is a min price of 0.01$ for 1,000 units of gold and 1$ min price for a stack = 100,000 gold the min stack for sale = the gold will go from 100,000 UP.

No, this means that 1,000 units of gold CANNOT be sold with LESS than 0.01$, but surely you can sell for MORE.

LIKE 1,000 units of gold = 0,02 $ >>>> 50,000 gold = 1$
Or 1,000 units of gold = 0.1 $ >>>>>> 10,000 gold = 1$

What is so hard to understand that the gold can be sold for ANY price as long as the MINIMUM price for 1,000 units is MAXIMUM 0.01$?
You can't sell for LESS than 0.01$ per 1,000 units of gold.

[Lokiftw]

/standing ovation

[Enlil]

Yep, minimum sale for 1,000 is 0,01$ which results in and we cannot sell in stacks worth less than 1$.

Which means minimum sale for a stack of 100,000 gold = 1$

A stack of 20,000 units of gold = 1$ >>>> 200 units of gold = 0.01$ >>>> 1,000 units of gold = 0.05$.

As you can see, i sell the price for 1,000 units of gold is 0.05$, which is HIGHER than 0.01$, in OTHER words it is BIGGER than the minimum price allowed.

The floor you are talking about is because you can sell only in THOUSAND of units, because the BUYER can buy also in THOUSANDS.

If i have an order for 40,000 gold for 2$, the buyer CANNOT buy 20,500 units if gold from be BUT 20,000 or 21,000 units.
The seller also CANNOT list 20,500 gold or 20,700.There will have to be MILTIPLE of 1,000 with min 1,000 gold in the stack.

The fact that there is a min price of 0.01$ for 1,000 units of gold and 1$ min price for a stack = 100,000 gold the min stack for sale = the gold will go from 100,000 UP.

No, this means that 1,000 units of gold CANNOT be sold with LESS than 0.01$, but surely you can sell for MORE.

LIKE 1,000 units of gold = 0,02 $ >>>> 50,000 gold = 1$
Or 1,000 units of gold = 0.1 $ >>>>>> 10,000 gold = 1$

What is so hard to understand that the gold can be sold for ANY price as long as the MINIMUM price for 1,000 units is MAXIMUM 0.01$?
You can't sell for LESS than 0.01$ per 1,000 units of gold.

Thats what I said:grrr:

[semakka]

Thats what I said:grrr:

Nope, you did not said that :D

You said this :



As you should know the minimum amount of gold for $1 cannot be less than 100k
Which means i cannot sell less than 100,000 gold for 1$.

Not really what you said :D.

[Enlil]

Nope, you did not said that :D

You said this :


Which means i cannot sell less than 100,000 gold for 1$.

Not really what you said :D.

You wrote

"LIKE 1,000 units of gold = 0,02 $ >>>> 50,000 gold = 1$
Or 1,000 units of gold = 0.1 $ >>>>>> 10,000 gold = 1$"

I think you mean Or 1,000 units of gold = 0.1 $ >>>>>> 100,000 gold = 1$

I think you've just twisted when I was trying to say i.e. 100k for $1 is the minimum gold can go down to, of course you can sell less than 100k for more than $1 if the price per 1k is more than 0.01. I was just pointing out the lowest point gold can go.

[semakka]

As you should know the minimum amount of gold for $1 cannot be less than 100k


the minimum amount of gold for $1 cannot be less than 100k






$1 cannot be less than 100k


Here.What did i twisted:D?

[Blackstream]

Upon review, it's really all semantics. We all know Enlil was saying that at the minimum price of 1 cent per 1000 gold, a minimum sale for $1 is 100k gold. Prices cannot go any further down right now, and if prices for gold go up, the minimum sale for $1 will of course be less gold, like say semakka's estimate of 30k per $1

[Enlil]

See, Blackstream knows wtf I'm talking about :yes:

[galzohar]

You guys are forgetting that Blizzard can change this rule at any time. At least before the game has actually been released can have such changes happen with little to no effort. I doubt they'll kill $<->gold trading by setting a minimum price that actually has a chance to be reached.

[Enlil]

I'm almost sure what we see in beta we be how things are for patch 1 on release day, but like you say "Blizzard can change things at any time" Sure changes will be made sooner or later but we shall have to see.

[semakka]

God...

IF someone list EXACTLY 100,000 gold, the MINIMUM price for that stack of exactly 100,000 gold is 1$.

This is the only situation when a min price for 1,000 gold cannot be less than 0.01$ and 100,000 gold cannot be less than 1$.

However, the price for 1,000 gold can be lesser or higher than 0.01$ in ALL THE OTHER situations.And by NO MEANS 100,000 gold = 1$ is a floor.There is NO FLOOR.

Pls tell me which of the bellow gold stacks and prices CANNOT be listed (because some ppl think there are floors) :

1.20,000 gold = 1$ (1,000 g = 0.05$ - above the min).
2.150,000 gold = 1$ (1,000 g = 0.0066667$ - bellow minimum).
3.10,000,000 gold = 1$ (1,000 g = 0.0001$ - waaay bellow minimum).

Tell which one is wrong (no need to explain why if you can't) because i believe that all of the above 3 situations are corect.

[galzohar]

I don't think you can sell gold in stacks different than 1000, at least not in the latest beta. If this is a problem, though, I'm sure they'll change the stack size to something that will make more sense. If they don't, then people will simply not buy/sell gold on the RMAH. There is no floor price because simply if the price drops below the so-called "current floor price" people will simply stop trading it as they can't buy/sell for the true market value.

[Enlil]

I don't think you can sell gold in stacks different than 1000, at least not in the latest beta. If this is a problem, though, I'm sure they'll change the stack size to something that will make more sense. If they don't, then people will simply not buy/sell gold on the RMAH. There is no floor price because simply if the price drops below the so-called "current floor price" people will simply stop trading it as they can't buy/sell for the true market value.


you are correct, gold has to be sold by the thousand so there is a floor.

[galzohar]

There is a floor for the listing price, but not for the price people are willing to pay. If people aren't willing to pay the "floor" price, then people will effectively stop trading gold for real money, and Blizzard will surely adjust the numbers to fix this problem.

[Enlil]

There is a floor for the listing price, but not for the price people are willing to pay. If people aren't willing to pay the "floor" price, then people will effectively stop trading gold for real money, and Blizzard will surely adjust the numbers to fix this problem.

LOL You think people will have a problem paying the floor price of $0.01 per 1k ?

[semakka]

LOL You think people will have a problem paying the floor price of $0.01 per 1k ?


I was expecting, at least from you, to show where i was wrong on this :


Pls tell me which of the bellow gold stacks and prices CANNOT be listed (because some ppl think there are floors) :

1.20,000 gold = 1$ (1,000 g = 0.05$ - above the min).
2.150,000 gold = 1$ (1,000 g = 0.0066667$ - bellow minimum).
3.10,000,000 gold = 1$ (1,000 g = 0.0001$ - waaay bellow minimum).

Tell which one is wrong (no need to explain why if you can't) because i believe that all of the above 3 situations are corect.


C'mon, don't be shy :whistling:

Or you are afraid that i am RIGHT, and there is no such thing as "floor" :party:

[Punkonjunk]

WTB 1M gold for 3 dollars, OFFER GOING NOW TRIPLE MARKET PREDICTED PRICES, plz sell plz wug wug wug

[Enlil]

I was expecting, at least from you, to show where i was wrong on this :



C'mon, don't be shy :whistling:

Or you are afraid that i am RIGHT, and there is no such thing as "floor" :party:

Example 1 is correct, the rest are not.
You can't sell for less than 0.01 per thousand.

The sale price entry box will not except a value less than $0.01, the minimum the system will allow you to sell for, this is what sets the price floor.

You try putting 0000.1 into the sale price box, the system will tell you to gtfo lol

This is how the system worked in beta, and "should" be the same in patch 1 on release, over time blizz may change it to allow 0.001 as min but I doubt it.

Happy now ?

[galzohar]

LOL You think people will have a problem paying the floor price of $0.01 per 1k ?
Well, I'm not saying it will happen for sure, but it's definitely a possibility. And if it happens (or before it happens), they can and most likely will increase the stack size up from 1k to something higher (say 10k or 100k).

[Enlil]

Well, I'm not saying it will happen for sure, but it's definitely a possibility. And if it happens (or before it happens), they can and most likely will increase the stack size up from 1k to something higher (say 10k or 100k).


Perhaps they will change min stack size sale in future but I doubt it. price per 1k works good.

[galzohar]

How do you know how much gold we'll farm in nightmare/hell/inferno?... If it ends up being 1-2mil/hour, no way people would pay 10-20$ for it when there are Chinese willing to sell it for much less (and no, the restrictions will most likely not stop their gold farming/selling if you read the other thread about this). Sure if we only end up farming no more than 100k/hour at the very best then it'll be fine, but nobody knows that yet.

[Enlil]

How do you know how much gold we'll farm in nightmare/hell/inferno?... If it ends up being 1-2mil/hour, no way people would pay 10-20$ for it when there are Chinese willing to sell it for much less (and no, the restrictions will most likely not stop their gold farming/selling if you read the other thread about this). Sure if we only end up farming no more than 100k/hour at the very best then it'll be fine, but nobody knows that yet.

Have faith in blizzard, as its a 15% + 15% fee it is in Blizzards best interests that gold sells for a decent amount so to get a decent amount from the fee's.

[galzohar]

Won't help them to raise minimum price if people aren't willing to pay it.

[Enlil]

Won't help them to raise minimum price if people aren't willing to pay it.

We will just have to wait and see what people are willing to pay.

[semakka]

Example 1 is correct, the rest are not.
You can't sell for less than 0.01 per thousand.

The sale price entry box will not except a value less than $0.01, the minimum the system will allow you to sell for, this is what sets the price floor.

You try putting 0000.1 into the sale price box, the system will tell you to gtfo lol

This is how the system worked in beta, and "should" be the same in patch 1 on release, over time blizz may change it to allow 0.001 as min but I doubt it.

Happy now ?


Happy lol...tho you are wrong.

ex 2 : 150,000 gold for 1$, you say it is incorrect.

Now, here is why you are wrong.

A min price for 1,000 g = 0.01$ AND a min price for a stack of gold auction = 1$ means that in the moment the market reaches this price :
-100,000 gold = 1$,
the gold price can only go UPWARDS.

As in :
-99,000 = 1$
-98,000 = 1$
and so on.


In other words, THERE WILL BE NO WAY TO SELL CHEAPER.

Does this sounds GOOD for you ? Because for the 2 degrees in economics guy (me) sounds like death of the RMAH.

This contradicts the "free market" and also contradicts the evolution of the game.The more and more people will reach lvl 60, the more and more gold will be available.Meaning the there will be ONLY one price :
-100,000 gold = 1$, or 200,000 = 2$ and so on.

There is only one market that have MIN prices : the communist market.And look how great it worked for them :D

There is another explanation, the one i keep saying it for days : Blizz KNOWS that the gold prices will stabilize WAY under 100,000 gps for a buck.Mostly likely where i said : 29,000-30,000 gps for a buck.

Because if not, than again i will prove right, and gold WILL be sold under the "floor" you so strongly believe that exists.

Free tip : The price for 1,000 gps can be in the SAME time 0.01$ AND 0.02$ for the buyer.
Free tip 2 : if you put the price 0.0001$ AND the total is 1$ or above...the system won't have anything against :D.
Free tip 3 : Beta is just that - Beta

[PearlOrion]

Sorry to derail the battle between the economic titans. Just a quick question:



What’s the minimum and maximum bid I can set for an item?

In the gold-based auction house, the minimum you can list an item for is 100 gold, and the maximum is 100,000,000,000 gold.
In the real-money auction house, the minimum you can list an item for is $1.25 USD (or equivalent local currency). The maximum you can set is $250 USD.


So assuming that gold reaches the capped minimum price of gold -> 100,000 gold = $1
Max possible price of item in GAH = 100,000,000,000 gold = $1,000,000 (But it's not $ until you can cash it out)

So technically a $800 Windforce should be priced at 8M gold?

[semakka]

How do you know how much gold we'll farm in nightmare/hell/inferno?... If it ends up being 1-2mil/hour, no way people would pay 10-20$ for it when there are Chinese willing to sell it for much less (and no, the restrictions will most likely not stop their gold farming/selling if you read the other thread about this). Sure if we only end up farming no more than 100k/hour at the very best then it'll be fine, but nobody knows that yet.

Nobody knows except Blizzard...however, i am quite sure that nobody will go above 50,000 gold / hour, and this in Inferno.

If it goes over 50,000 gold/ hour for MOST people (if 1% can make 100k / hour means nothing) in short time window (3-4 months) Blizz can say byebye to the RMAH fees.

[Davidus]

1$ for 100k? thats actually sounds pretty good:P but to have a high price like this the gold sinks must be brutal

[Bloomberg]

Semakka you seem to forget that Blizz has all the monetary tools they can dream of right at their very disposal.
But even if the gold value train derails, they will actually need to use only one - gold sinks.

Once they see that gold is rolling down the hill, they can increase various costs, either directly (repairs/crafting/etc.), or indirectly - for example by increasing inferno difficulty (more fail => more repairs).

Or they can decrease the amount of gold income from mobs/quests, or even implement new gold sink mechanics whenever they see fit..

As the only true invisible hand of market in D3, is uncle BLIZZ :scratchchin:

[SmasheR]

Probably YES, but most will NOT sell them, because it IS VERY PROBABLE that a guy UPGRADING from tier 11 gems will PREFER to SPEND the same ammount to buy 9 x tier 12 gems.
9 x tier 11 upgraded to 9 x tier 12 gems = 9 x 7 % increase in stats = 63 %
1 x tier 11 upgraded to 1 x tier 14 gems = 7% + 7% + 7% = 21 %

.

If only you can socket them

[Enlil]

Happy lol...tho you are wrong.

ex 2 : 150,000 gold for 1$, you say it is incorrect.

Now, here is why you are wrong.

A min price for 1,000 g = 0.01$ AND a min price for a stack of gold auction = 1$ means that in the moment the market reaches this price :
-100,000 gold = 1$,
the gold price can only go UPWARDS.

As in :
-99,000 = 1$
-98,000 = 1$
and so on.


In other words, THERE WILL BE NO WAY TO SELL CHEAPER.

Does this sounds GOOD for you ? Because for the 2 degrees in economics guy (me) sounds like death of the RMAH.

This contradicts the "free market" and also contradicts the evolution of the game.The more and more people will reach lvl 60, the more and more gold will be available.Meaning the there will be ONLY one price :
-100,000 gold = 1$, or 200,000 = 2$ and so on.

There is only one market that have MIN prices : the communist market.And look how great it worked for them :D

There is another explanation, the one i keep saying it for days : Blizz KNOWS that the gold prices will stabilize WAY under 100,000 gps for a buck.Mostly likely where i said : 29,000-30,000 gps for a buck.

Because if not, than again i will prove right, and gold WILL be sold under the "floor" you so strongly believe that exists.

Free tip : The price for 1,000 gps can be in the SAME time 0.01$ AND 0.02$ for the buyer.
Free tip 2 : if you put the price 0.0001$ AND the total is 1$ or above...the system won't have anything against :D.
Free tip 3 : Beta is just that - Beta

"29,000-30,000 for a buck." is way over the floor putting the price far above 0.01 per 1k

"Free tip 2 : if you put the price 0.0001$ AND the total is 1$ or above...the system won't have anything against :D."

This is just speculation, in beta it would not accept a sale value lower than 0.01 "so that was the floor in beta" but as you say beta is beta so we will have to wait and see if in live it does accept 0000.1 per thousand "Have a feeling I'll say" Told you so hahaha :D

[semakka]

Semakka you seem to forget that Blizz has all the monetary tools they can dream of right at their very disposal.
But even if the gold value train derails, they will actually need to use only one - gold sinks.

Once they see that gold is rolling down the hill, they can increase various costs, either directly (repairs/crafting/etc.), or indirectly - for example by increasing inferno difficulty (more fail => more repairs).

Or they can decrease the amount of gold income from mobs/quests, or even implement new gold sink mechanics whenever they see fit..

As the only true invisible hand of market in D3, is uncle BLIZZ :scratchchin:

I did not forgot about that Bloomberg.They are the gods in their games and can do w/e they please.

If they see the gold going south, they will ofc implement measure to stop this.However, this means that IF the 0.01$ for 1,000 gps will make it live...then the gold will ALWAYS have a selling price bigger then 0.01$ per 1,000 gps.

And this is exactly what i said : Blizzard either is knows that gold will probably not even get close to 1,000 gps = 0.01$
as minimum value (and this is my best bet) and will do everything to keep it that way, OR the 0.01$ per 1,000 gps will be removed and keep ONLY 1$ as MINIMUM price for a gold auction.

There are 2 ways to keep gold prices stable : low gold drop rate or killer gold sinks (mainly repairs, those are unavoidable for most players) or a balance between gold drop rate and gold sinks.I bet on the low gold drop rates and i see inferno gold for most players in the range of 40,000 gps/hour...but in like 4-5 months after release.

IF the 0.01$ for 1,000 gps goes live and Blizz wants this min price to be SUSTAINABLE...most won't be able to make above 100,000 gps/hour regardless what, where and how they farm.

The make or break point for a 1,000 gps = 0.01$ as min price will be when most will be able to make 100,000 gps / hour or more.

And this is most likely WHY most won't be able to do this in first 12-18 months...if most will, then the min price for 1,000 gps will not make it and the only min price we will see will be the 1$ for a gold auction, regardless how many gps are in that auction (1,000 or 100,000,000).

[semakka]

This is just speculation, in beta it would not accept a sale value lower than 0.01 "so that was the floor in beta" but as you say beta is beta so we will have to wait and see if in live it does accept 0000.1 per thousand "Have a feeling I'll say" Told you so hahaha :D

One of us will totaly say "I'll told ya so:D".I know I will :D

[Enlil]

One of us will totaly say "I'll told ya so:D".I know I will :D

I might read your bragging sometime in september if you happen to be right, I'll be so busy making money.
Perhaps I'll send you a P.M when I see the 0.01 min enter value :D

I just can't see 0.000.1 happening, if it does where does it end 0.000000000.1 LOL

[debilistic]

semakka, what are you talking about? 40k gold per hour really? you tried beta? if the rate remains the same, I'll easily farm 40k gold per hour on normal, act1 (if I ever would be arsed to do so).

And remember, nothing hints that the rate would be changed, besides your imaginary calculations and, basically, speculation. 100k limit is pretty low, in any case, and most probably would be reached sooner or later, since in the free market which you supposedly study any price is legit. So the problem is quite real.

[BohemianStalker]

I havent read the whole topic, I am sorry if I will be repeating someone.

I for one believe that minimum allowed price for selling gold will get changed. I see it like this:

The fees were changed in past, auction house has evolved, and the current 1$=100 000g{max} was purposely set for BETA. If you can make 40k gold in beta right now for an hour it would be pretty hilarious these rates should stay the same.

40kg{hour} in beta level 13?
You have 15dps weapons right now
With 60level i can have weapon with 500dps easily
thats roughly 30x more effective.
Now even assuming it would help me to faster killing just by 10x(because there are factors we cannot change like position of monsters).
I would be able to make around 400k/hour.
That would mean 4$ per hour!(and I am not counting GF gear you can have at level 60..)
There is no way this is gonna happen.

Conclusion:

Rates will get changed. We dont have to know the precise gold rates for end game to make some meaningful assumptions. All we have to know is rough effectivity of level 60 farming low level locations to get estimation of gold drops. In my very conservative point of view view(very, very conservative) Players with good gear will be able to farm 400k/hour. In my personal view best players with top gear will be able to make about 1M/hour.

Gold Price conclusion: According to this I predict gold price around

1$=1Mg{max} for retail

[Enlil]

$1 = 1 million you say hmmmmm
Its in blizzards intrest to keep gold selling for as much as possible per 1k, so there 15% cut/profits are bigger.

This is why they had done the "0.01 per 1k" minimum to keep the worth of gold.
Plus the huge impact this would have on the real money value of crafted items and mats if you can buy 1 mill for a $.

Blizzard have to keep a decent value to things on the RMAH or it will destory the game. No one is going to farm for stuff when they can buy all the top items in game for a few dollars and if players stop posting stuff on the RMAH because of the tiny amount of money they can get for those items the RMAH will be die along with Blizzards long term profits.

[BohemianStalker]

$1 = 1 million you say hmmmmm
Its in blizzards intrest to keep gold selling for as much as possible per 1k, so there 15% cut/profits are bigger.

This is why they had done the "0.01 per 1k" minimum to keep the worth of gold.
Plus the huge impact this would have on the real money value of crafted items and mats if you can buy 1 mill for a $.

Blizzard have to keep a decent value to things on the RMAH or it will destory the game. No one is going to farm for stuff when they can buy all the top items in game for a few dollars and if players stop posting stuff on the RMAH because of the tiny amount of money they can get for those items the RMAH will be die along with Blizzards long term profits.

Well thats too bad that if you do some simple calculations you notice that 100k for 1$ is an unsustainable rate.

Really, come and bet on this one with me :D

[Enlil]

All calculations at this point are pure speclation.

If blizzard changes the 0.01 per 1k minimum, where does it end 0.00001 per 1k lol
If that happens no one will bother selling there gold, and goodbye blizzards 15% on gold sales.

They will change things as time goes on but I think they would rather change the drop rate of the gold rather than end up with 1 mil per $.
If it ends being that you can make a good hourly rate from farming gold, then whats the problem with it
No one is being forced to buy 100k per $ min gold price, buyers can either take it or leave it.

Gold has to remain viable and have value to it, or it will be like D2 all over again and the game will fail on the economy side of things.

Blizzard have people much smarter than you or me that have looked at this from every angle and gone over all the math many times.
First thing I'll be doing when the rmah is live is trying to put 0.0001 per 1k in the sale box and see if the system accept's it or if 0.01 is still the per 1k floor, as a figure around 0.00001 will have to be the case to have 1 mill per $ as you can't buy or sell less than $1 worth of gold.

We shall see .......... but I'm betting I'm right with 0.01 per 1k as was the case in late beta patches, I don't they changed it to 0.01 in the last couple of patches just for fun.

[jwfcp]

wut? if they wont sell 1k for less than $.01 then they wont list for less than $.01. If people wont buy for $.01 then the seller can try lowering their price, the market will find a common ground, let them have as many zero's as they need to do that, just so long as they put a dollars worth of goods on the line for any transaction. whats it cost to craft one of those high end pieces of gear? like 180k gold? and you think that people will legitimately pay $1.80 cash on top of all those mats? no way, no how. gold wont move on the rmah and blizzards cut will be nowhere to be found.

[Enlil]

wut? if they wont sell 1k for less than $.01 then they wont list for less than $.01. If people wont buy for $.01 then the seller can try lowering their price, the market will find a common ground, let them have as many zero's as they need to do that, just so long as they put a dollars worth of goods on the line for any transaction. whats it cost to craft one of those high end pieces of gear? like 180k gold? and you think that people will legitimately pay $1.80 cash on top of all those mats? no way, no how. gold wont move on the rmah and blizzards cut will be nowhere to be found.

That is what we are talking about, the best information we have so far on this subject is from the latest beta patch changes, even azzure agree's with me on this.

http://diablo3markets.incgamers.com/blog/comments/changes-to-rmah-listing-price-for-gold-commodities

But its only something we will know on release, as I said in my previous comments. First thing I'll check on the rmah once live is the minimum value the sale box will accept. I'll try 0000.1 first but I have a feeling it will say "Minimum value 0.01" as was the change in the last two beta patches.

I don't know why you find it so shocking @ 100k per $1, you'll be surprised what people will pay.
Crafters will just ask higher prices for there creations if gold is expensive.

A couple of weeks from now we will have the awnser to this question.

[jwfcp]

The dollar minimum isnt the problem. Suppose you put in $20 of real cash, you could turn that directly into 2 million gold {MAX}. Or you could buy up mats on the rmah and sell them on the gah for whatever price the market is offering... but that gives blizzard a double dip. Maybe its an oversight, maybe its a feature, but its indefensible.

[Enlil]

The dollar minimum isnt the problem. Suppose you put in $20 of real cash, you could turn that directly into 2 million gold {MAX}. Or you could buy up mats on the rmah and sell them on the gah for whatever price the market is offering... but that gives blizzard a double dip. Maybe its an oversight, maybe its a feature, but its indefensible.

The time for talking is over, no more of this endless theory crafting. I can't take it anymore.
Omg, ffs just let it be the 15th so we can play! /cry

[jwfcp]

I know, heres to our squandered weekend :/