RMAH in trouble at launch?

[nEgativezEro]

I've been thinking about this the past couple days. Maybe I've missed some info somewhere, but I'm wondering how strong the RMAH will be out of the gate.

A lot of complaints early on about putting real money into the system were quelled with the promise of a number of free auction listings per to be determined length of time. What I've been wondering about is how many users will be willing to fork over that initial investment to get the RMAH going. Obviously under the assumption the RMAH is going smoothly, it's easy to sell items under the free listings to get some money in the account to start purchasing. However at launch everyone will be starting from $0. Naturally there will be plenty of people who don't care about putting real money into their account, but I think the majority of the fanbase isn't all that interested in putting extra cash out of pocket into the game.

Starting at launch, any items in the auction house will have to purchased with real money, not just money earned from selling items since anyone buying will be forced to use real money until, and if, the market gets going. If sales on the RMAH at launch are too slow, the GAH might gain a lot more momentum out of the gate and become to default, go-to place for items, instead of the RMAH. I can see the big ticket items on the RMAH by players looking to make a few bucks, and the knowledge that someone out there has the money to burn on an item, but the majority of the smaller, average items may well end up almost exclusively on the GAH.

This is all just a bunch of theorycrafting on my part, and I may have overlooked things that invalidate my arguments, but this has been on my mind for a couple days now, and I wanted some outside opinion on the matter. So what does the community think? Is there enough interested in the RMAH for it to take off out of the gate, or will the majority of the fanbase be too reserved to put up the initial cash for startup and stick to the all in-game GAH?

[Concupisco Quaestus]

Coming from the RMT industry I can tell you the RMAH is in no real "danger" of anything, there are millions of people who won't bat an eyelash when putting RL money into a video game, I mean you don't need Stephen Hawking brain power to see people spending money to enjoy their game play, I'm pretty sure the vast majority reading this forum is spending at least 15$ a month for one game or another, what's the difference whether that 15$ a month is spent in a monthly sub or through some micro-transactions? We should all be used to the pay2play business model by now, paying for an item isn't much different than paying for "content", especially when the item is the content.

The only complications facing the RMAH are in implementation and as such those complications can be managed if they should arise.

I know you have absolutely no reason to trust anything I say as I'm just some tool on the Internet but the industry itself proves minute by minute that people are willing to spend hundreds if not thousands of dollars on their leisure time, even if that leisure time is in a video game.

The RMT industry sells millions of dollars monthly in games without a "legal" RMT system and that industry has been around since Everquest, if the RMAH was in any real danger from people not being willing to spend money on a video game the current multi-billion dollar RMT industry wouldn't exist... Just some food for thought.

[Azzure]

I agree with CP, while the first few days will see very low volumes in the RMAH (its the start of the game, there is really nothing to spend money on yet), that will quickly change when people start using gold-sinks and have a thirst for more stuff.

[AngleWyrm]

I often spend money on computer related entertainment. Sometimes it will be $3-4 to stream a movie I want to see, sometimes it is $5 for a bunch of points in my current facebook game. And I can see this small purchase model working quite well on me; I'll probably buy five bucks worth of this or that from time to time.

It might be slower for the first few days, but with millions playing I expect there will be interesting and valuable stuff for sale quite fast.

[Azzure]

I think we tend to underestimate the power of entertainment. And also underestimate our ability to splurge on ourselves.

When you have this awesome Barbarian character, on this awesome new shiny game that you are really enjoying, and there is this really really awesome sword that would be perfect for you, it glows red and has loads of damage, I think most people will purchase it without a second thought. We are a nation of spenders, we buy nice clothes, we buy delicious food, we fork out money daily for enjoyment and to feel good. What is better value for money, a movie ticket for $15 that lasts about 2 hours, or a Sword for $15 that lasts you a few weeks and provides an enhanced experience playing a game, in which you can sell later for possibly the same value? Personally I'd take the sword.

I tend to not state my opinion on how much real money will flow through the RMAH because there are a lot of variables, and a lot depends on how items work out (which are still under development). But let me just say that my estimates are extremely high. I think the RMAH will blow all our predictions away, and will be vastly more popular than anyone imagined.

[nEgativezEro]

I guess it's been a while since I've played games in this manner. The only MMO i've played since D2 came out was Aion, briefly. I suppose in retrospect, though not entirely the same, it's not too different from me spending 2 bucks on DLC songs for Rock Band every so often. Though it's a small amount per purchase, over time it adds up more.

Still as far as D3 is concerned, I personally have a hard time spending real world cash on something that will only have a limited use until it's replaced by something better. Of course building up funds through selling and using that to purchase is fine. I hadn't taken into consideration what you said about the ability to resell the items you purchase later on, once you upgrade. That definitely help things out, and makes the items almost more of a rental (with a future refund) than a purchase.

I guess I just underestimated how people are willing to spend on things like this nowadays. Especially with the excitement of everything new in Diablo 3.

[Sulle]

If everyone had the same thought about the RMAH as me, then it would certainly be in trouble hehe.

Naturally it will go slower in the beginning, and for most parts having items for sale in gold, but as time progreses, you can expect to see better items, but sadly I don´t think it will be in trouble. You know some people will even try and level as quickly as they can in the beginning, without enjoying the game itself, so that they can farm in inferno, and earn some good money.

[Nastydevil]

I think we tend to underestimate the power of entertainment. And also underestimate our ability to splurge on ourselves.


Let me use some of Azzure's work to bring my point on the table.

People "Like us", here I talk about people who are involved into the money making, trading, marketing niche market. Often we forget that outside there's a lot of people who doesn't think the same way we do. We don't see through the blur because all of our environment is composed of technical and mechanical stuff and so is the people we discuss every day. BUT if you go outside and meet the general crowd, all they want to do is to spend money. There's a world industry waiting outside the door. We forget to add the "Entertainment" to our equations.

Now my general thought: Slow 1-2 days, then skyrocket of buyers and sellers. I suppose it will be 2 or 3 times bigger than what we could imagine in terms of volume and money value.

[Astroquicky]

We are a nation of spenders
Off-topic: Azzure, I really enjoy your posts, so the following comment is in no way an attack on your person, but in fact a comment to people from the US in general.

On these forums, I hope "We" is the diablo 3 community, not the American people. I come from a small country (Belgium), so I'm more easily annoyed by these kinds of comments, but I think most European people would agree that it's a little rude to think that "We" only includes the American people, despite the fact that the European population on these forums is likely much smaller than the US population.

I'm sure you did not purposefully want to exclude Europeans from the conversation, but to anyone who reads this with an open mind, next time you say "we", please consider who the "we" really is and specify according to the people you're talking to, e.g. "We Americans are a nation of spenders." or "We Westerners are a population of spenders." Thanks for reading, and please continue with the RMAH conversation :).

[Azzure]

Off-topic: Azzure, I really enjoy your posts, so the following comment is in no way an attack on your person, but in fact a comment to people from the US in general.

On these forums, I hope "We" is the diablo 3 community, not the American people. I come from a small country (Belgium), so I'm more easily annoyed by these kinds of comments, but I think most European people would agree that it's a little rude to think that "We" only includes the American people, despite the fact that the European population on these forums is likely much smaller than the US population.

I'm sure you did not purposefully want to exclude Europeans from the conversation, but to anyone who reads this with an open mind, next time you say "we", please consider who the "we" really is and specify according to the people you're talking to, e.g. "We Americans are a nation of spenders." or "We Westerners are a population of spenders." Thanks for reading, and please continue with the RMAH conversation :).


No probs. I'm actually from Australia, but I was referring to people in general whom would also be playing Diablo 3, nations was the wrong collective word to use.

[Astroquicky]

Lol, okay, now I feel like an idiot, haha!

[The Lord of Darkness]

How substainable will the RMAH be long term is my concern. It won't take long at all(if not immediately) to get it off the ground. I'm sure Blizzard has thought about this but I haven't seen this mentioned, but I have to assume Blizzard will keep a reasonably steady flow of new items coming into the game with new patches, expansions, ect. Otherwise the market could become stale.

[Concupisco Quaestus]

I wouldn't worry, been 11 years and people are still playing Diablo 2, RMT is still taking place in Diablo 2 as well, granted it's not as prolific as it once was but 11 years is 11 years... D3 is basically the same game as D2 with more chrome trim and a couple additions, game play wise though it looks to me to be identical so if D2 made it this long I can't see D3's survivability being at any risk.

In terms of the longevity of the RMAH, people will buy and sell until the doors close, once RMT starts it never stops, it only ever slows down, to put it in perspective 6 months ago Star Wars Galaxies was announced to be closing its doors and I still sold credits to people who knew full well the game was dead by Christmas and the only reason I stopped selling at any point wasn't because the orders ever "stopped" they just slowed down to the point where maintaining 20 accounts just wasn't feasible and the trouble just wasn't worth it for like 1 order a week.

So long as there is the avenue to make it there is always money to be made in these games, it's a door that once opened can only be closed by blowing up the whole building... I know one order a week could be called unsubstantial but the point is that there will always be people that use these things, it being legit in D3 only means that many more people.

[Astroquicky]

I wouldn't worry, been 11 years and people are still playing Diablo 2, RMT is still taking place in Diablo 2 as well [...]
I think you're forgetting that Diablo 2 had ladder (and economy) resets, while Diablo 3 (so it seems) won't have resets. So whatever is in the economy will stay in the economy (aside from people leaving the game, which was the case for Diablo 2 as well).

[Moik]

While population-wide resets are more impactful, D3 will have the rampant destruction of property built in to regular play. Probably the vast majority of items will be thrown into the Cube or Cauldron, and the bulk of the results will probably end up in the hands of crafters who pay it to NPCs and out of the economy. Making one Legendary item requires the destruction of three to four of its ilk and seventy more of its lesser brethren.

[Azzure]

I think you're forgetting that Diablo 2 had ladder (and economy) resets, while Diablo 3 (so it seems) won't have resets. So whatever is in the economy will stay in the economy (aside from people leaving the game, which was the case for Diablo 2 as well).

It is true that Diablo 3 doesn't have an outflux for good items. I think ladder resets will be replaced with "Expansion Packs", which will act like an item reset due to all the new improved, higher level items available.

I have posted in the past about Diablo 3's lack of outflux for good items. Salvaging does nothing to consume or take out good items from the Economy what-so-ever. You only salvage crappy items that are worth less than the scraps they produce. Good items will never get salvaged.

Will it be a problem? Not sure.

[Concupisco Quaestus]

There is no money to be made from a ladder reset system, expansion reset however... chaching... As we've seen thus far Blizzard has taken a lot of lessons away from WoW and I think this is one of those lessons... My only problem with it is that it is semi-flawed logic as there is indeed money to be made in a ladder reset system, the only problem is it would take some ingenuity and creative development as to my knowledge nobody has worked out a "monetary" ladder system yet.

My only concern is that the expansion system won't make any kind of shift in the balance of power between old items and new, they might add "more" but they will never make old items obsolete as people have a lot of money invested into those items, I for one was one of those who left WoW shortly after BC and never went back, I was part of that market they specifically targeted and tried to get back after BC but besides checking out a free period here and there I never returned because to this day, despite it being a leisure activity (I don't farm in WoW) I consider WoW to be a complete and total waste of time to play and I am not alone in that and that was brought about by the "reset" of a character where my only investment was time spent raiding at 4am... Imagine if that investment was monetary? I can't see any way for them to invalidate anyone's paid for "gear" without that person quitting and even the people that stayed behind would be very unlikely to use the RMAH when they know that "investment" in their character could go poof at any moment.

I think people are underestimating just how difficult it will be to get "perfect" or even "very good" stats, they might introduce new skins and models with an expansion but if the idea of a "capped" item is for the most part pure fantasy then the pursuit of "better" will be more than enough to keep the item junkies going for the next 50 years and lets face it, this game is designed for item junkies. If the items are the content the content only ends when the items can't go any farther, make the road for the item near limitless and you make pursuit by the player just as limitless.

People need to think back to the days of D2 classic where "rare" items ruled and the unique's had just been a supplement because for all intents and purposes that is the loot system they are returning to, the unique's and legendary's are just labels for better versions of "rare" items now, those whose only experience with D2 was with LOD are going to need to adjust their mindset, this isn't going to be as simple as trading "perfect" anything.

[viledevil]

People need to think back to the days of D2 classic where "rare" items ruled and the unique's had just been a supplement because for all intents and purposes that is the loot system they are returning to, the unique's and legendary's are just labels for better versions of "rare" items now, those whose only experience with D2 was with LOD are going to need to adjust their mindset, this isn't going to be as simple as trading "perfect" anything.

yup. most people will never interact with the better uniques. i dont think many remember d2 back then and so dont have a proper frame of reference for how equipment was pre mass botting / duping...

[galzohar]

yup. most people will never interact with the better uniques. i dont think many remember d2 back then and so dont have a proper frame of reference for how equipment was pre mass botting / duping...

And more importantly the pre-"uniques and runewords > all" era.


I do think item flood will be a problem in the long run. The real question is how long "the long run" will be, and whether after the item flood the game will still be playable or made way too easy.

In WoW I never liked the "there's new content out that makes everything from current content useless". This was especially extreme with every expansion released, but is also apparent in every patch that releases the next end-game raid. This means that if you're not "keeping up with the world" you basically rule yourself out of just about anything in WoW (be it PvP or PvE). Blizzard stated they don't want D3 to be like that, so we'll have to see what they come up with. But I really don't see how they can deal with item flood without introducing new items that make the old ones obsolete, like they do in WoW.

Maybe they should just deal with the flood by making the game have enough challenging content with difficult achievements that would be interesting even for those that are already "flooded" with everything. Maybe even some kind of "event" or "challenge" with infinitely increasing difficulty, so that you can always work on trying to get as far as possible, and even with the best gear in the game you can still try to play better to get further. To be honest I'm a big fan of my last idea, but I sort of doubt it'll actually happen.

[Concupisco Quaestus]

Those who played the space portion of Star Wars Galaxies should see where this is going to go, that game had space ship parts with random stats, "capped" anything for loot in space was for the most part impossible, there was no such thing as a "perfect" part, they simply did not exist and as time went on the parts only ever got better, this is what D3 will be like if it is done properly.

The space portion of Star Wars Galaxies was VERY limited, so much so that the initial development of the space portion of that game was done by ex-Origin (think Wing Commander) employees as a "mini-game" as opposed to an actual space counterpart to the ground portion of the game, their lack of attention to any sort of detail in the space game was pretty evident when they never even tested most of the ships for PvP, they just slapped everything together, made a Star Wars skinned privateer clone and went on with their careers.

I mention this because even with the complete lack of development in the space portion of the game people still played it and ALL of the most expensive items in that game came from space, even the "rarest" paintings in the game could only ever "match" the price of the most expensive ship parts at best and in terms of performance we're talking item stat improvements no better than a few percent... For example a level 10 gun with 4100 max damage was worth a few hundred million easy, 4300+ max damage would fetch 1 billion + credits, the difference in performance in PvP? Next to nothing.

People bought these parts not because it gave them some kind of statistical advantage, they did so with the pride of trying to make the best ship they possibly could, this will be the same with D3, the item database never needs to change if it is scaled the proper way as over time the need for "better" items will be completely offset by the fact that your current items only ever get better as more looting occurs.

If there is a .0000000000001% chance to get +10 whatever on some item then it stands to reason that nobody is going to see anything even remotely close to a perfect 10 in the first year of game play, heck anything much over a 6 or 7 could be questionable but as time goes on and more loot gets looted the whole game moves one step closer to getting that "perfect" part meaning that the natural combination of random stats and player looting are what drives the game forward, there is no need to add another carrot on a stick.

People who own a Hat of Unyielding Trolling are not in a position where they will never buy another Hat of Unyielding Trolling because they already have one, if they want to build the best character they can they will buy another hat if a better one comes along and in turn they may sell theirs or they may just send it to an alt, or keep it for an alt they might create later.

These are 2 important considerations, to reiterate, the first of which being that just because someone owns something doesn't mean they will never buy another as even if they have the best item known to the server eventually better will come along and to a further extent eventually so much better will come along that their "best of class" becomes average. The other consideration is the fallacy that all items bought once will be resold if no longer used, this notion completely bypasses the concept of alts or stashing gear for those alts or the people who just stash gear.

D3 and the RMAH are secure in their status so long as Blizzard doesn't somehow completely screw up loot distribution or balance, the notion of an unobtainable "perfect" is exactly the right thing to do, I've seen it in practice before as I mentioned with SWG and to put it in retrospect for people the most expensive ship part I ever sold in that game worked out to net me well over 1000$US once I converted the credits to cash and the purchase was for no other reason than the buyer wanted the "best" he could get... On the other side of that same coin I once sold a part for 400million credits which was worth roughly 200$ at the time and a month or so later SoE released an update that made that 400million credit part "average" and the guy that had just made this super awesome part for his ship a month earlier now had to start over again and did start over again.

Obviously it can be argued that without a legitimate RMT industry in the game these people have no idea what kind of money they are spending on these things but believe me most of them did, they just didn't really care because it wasn't about the money, it was about their "hobby" and they didn't care in the slightest for RMT.

[galzohar]

Well, most people who will buy stuff and put money into the system are not the ones that care about RMT :)

However, in order to keep the game going, I think it'll take a little more than just making it incredibly difficult to obtain the "perfect" items(s). If you're steamrolling through the game, you're already getting tired of it, and trying to get better items is likely to not help keep most people in the game. For some getting the "best of the best" items will become a goal, but for most, the game will have to remain fun as they slay monsters on their way to that goal, or else they'll quit. I know for sure I will. Hopefully they'll keep the challenge going, though, one way or another (preferably with something like a never ending increasing difficulty without adding new and better items).

[Concupisco Quaestus]

I dunno, D2 never had a problem keeping going and it was stale for a looooong time, can say what we want about D2 having a ladder but the bulk of the people I knew who played D2 never cared about the ladder because it was just a list of who had the best bot running... If I would try and zero in on a single thing that kept everyone I knew playing it was the looting and maybe to a much lesser extent the PvP, there was no yearly carrot on a stick expansions for D2 or any real content patches for that matter. D3 isn't in any trouble... Not for years and years anyways.

[galzohar]

I know Diablo 2 didn't keep me (on that character, at least) once killing hell baal became an easy and repetitive task, which was way before I was anywhere near "optimal" gear setup.

I'm sure there will always be people that will play to get the best of the best character, but not nearly as many as would stay if the gameplay is actually engaging even once you have good gear.