Percentage chance Diablo III is released during the WWI?

[Sacrificer]

I just thought it would be interesting to see everyones assumptions (in percentage form) concerning the probability of diablo 3 being announced during the Worldwide Invitational in June.

My certainty: 60% chance of being announced

What is yours?

[PoiZonCraZy]

77.3% is my prediction

[Bad Ash]

it was a lot higher but recent skepticism and negativity has shattered all but 25% of my hope that it is announced. (feel free to begin the relentless assault again to whittle it down to less than that!)

[SlainByPain]

101 percent

[Tai.]

For the question in the title 0%

For the actual text of your post, I'd say 80%

[Mestre Crjspim]

0% - it will never be released in the WWI. It could be announced, but released, no way!

If you were reffering to an announcement, I'd say 0% all the same, because, in the words of this forum's Administrator, "it would overshadow WoW and SC2".

[mince pies]

If you'd have asked this a week ago, I would've said ~80% but ever since Blizzard squelched them PCGamer rumours, I'm going for ~10%

[aishilee]

its either yes or no. 50%

[Zeek]

If you were reffering to an announcement, I'd say 0% all the same, because, in the words of this forum's Administrator, "it would overshadow WoW and SC2".
I agree with this logic. I was getting excited before, but now thinking about the effect on SC2 I don't think we'll get an announcement until well after SC2 is released.

[Elly]

77.3% is my prediction

77.3%? Now that's specific. So, what pushed you the extra .3%?

[PoiZonCraZy]

77.3%? Now that's specific. So, what pushed you the extra .3%?

drugs and alcohol

[Coldsmoke]

I vote 100% for some vage semi-diablo3 related clue, that just keeps the rumors(=free advertising) going.

[Flux]

I don't have a predicted %, but I don't know if overshadowing wow and sc2 (or not) is a big concern. They'll be turning out wow sequels for years yet, and SC2 will be "coming soon" for the foreseeable future too, and then as soon as it does SC2 expansion will be coming soon. I think blizzard's audience is big enough for 3 pending titles. didn't they have that with sc ghost, war3 and wow for a while in like, 2005? or am I overlapping the time frame of their past game announcements?

Also, the whole French event just to continue flogging their existing titles? one of which is an mmorpg everyone already knows everything about, and the other an RTS sequel? true, a sequel to a very popular game, but the RTS genre has grown fairly limited, especially as action-heavy/thinking-lite console gamers proliferate.

I do wonder about the pc gamer issue. There's no way they'll announce a new game without a magazine tie in. Every big game now does that. PC gamer seems ruled out for a Diablo 3 July issue cover, but there are plenty of other magazines that could be in the works.

[Sacrificer]

About the title of the thread, i meant to write "announced" instead of "released". Just wanted to clarify that.

About the july PC Gamer issue, that really put my hopes down. Just wondering if PC Gamer covered diablo and diablo 2? If not, it wouldnt really matter what they said or what rumours they squelched concerning blizzard. If they did, then :(. Lets just hope they're lying or something.

[Mestre Crjspim]

I don't have a predicted %, but I don't know if overshadowing wow and sc2 (or not) is a big concern. They'll be turning out wow sequels for years yet, and SC2 will be "coming soon" for the foreseeable future too, and then as soon as it does SC2 expansion will be coming soon. I think blizzard's audience is big enough for 3 pending titles. didn't they have that with sc ghost, war3 and wow for a while in like, 2005? or am I overlapping the time frame of their past game announcements?

Also, the whole French event just to continue flogging their existing titles? one of which is an mmorpg everyone already knows everything about, and the other an RTS sequel? true, a sequel to a very popular game, but the RTS genre has grown fairly limited, especially as action-heavy/thinking-lite console gamers proliferate.

It's interesting you put it that way.

However, if Diablo III is a MMO, I just can't agree with you, because it would be direct competition to WoW market. And you just said that everyone allready knows WoW, so the announcement of a DIII game would definitely overshadow and relegate to the "subs bench" WotLK. It would be the main attraction alltogether, just because it's fresh air and is really expected.

It is true all the same, as you said, that Blizzard's audience is big enough to absorb 3 titles, as shown in the past, and the dimension of this audicence as demonstrate that they can accept 2 games of the same genre, like happened with Warcraft and Starcraft series. Still, videogames industry have "grown up", is much more apealling to investors and money circulation is overwhelming. So, this is a new context, with new demands from shareholders, a more capitalistic view of the market and client management. So, as I said in other threads, I firmly believe that they'll gonna suck all the juice they can from WoW until Diablo becomes a reallity. They will not risk cannibalization of WoW products through Diablo produts... they want maximum profits of all of their titles... huge profit is not enough... max is the only one acceptable. And we all know that a great amount of WoW players play it because there is no Diablo III.

In terms of product life cycle and product managment, I would say that WoW have long ago past the growth stage and is on the mature stage. It is the right moment to put a new game in the market, but they allready announced it, SC2. So, in this economicist point of view, Diablo has lost the chances for a near future release.

Still, I could be wrong and reading the signs the other way around. Blizzard could have a trick in the sleeve and a different market approach and a more agressive strategy.

[alron]

For a while I was convinced that they'll announce it. The date of WWI was and is the biggest tip off IMO. On top of it, they acquired diablo3.com so everything seemed to align correctly.

However, now that PC gamer crushed the rumor, Blizzcon was announced, and considering that SC2 and the WoW expansion are to be released I'm a little skeptical.

I'd say 55% that Blizzard announces Diablo3 and provides some basic info/screenshots with a hands on demo coming at Blizzcon. By then they'll have SC2 in beta ready for a Christmas season release and WoW expansion to cover their MMO angle.

[Flux]

I can't see a straight MMO d3, for the wow competition reason. Even if they made it play very differently, had a whole differnet theme to the world (dark and gothic?), changed all the game mechanics, etc... it would still be a sword/sorcery action-heavy mmorpg, by the same company. And hence it would be competition.

On the other hand, wow can't remain a juggernaut forever, and bliz would rather have people who get tired of WoW move over to Diablo 3 than to Age of Conan, warhammer, or other rpgs that will be released in the months and years to come. Besides, even if they announced D3 in June, there's no way it would hit stores before say, Xmas 2009. WoW will be 5 years old by then and on its 4th or 5th xpack by the time D3 is released; bliz would be crazy to assume wow will retain 10m+ subscribers indefinitely.

Also, how does the prospect of D3 not being an MMO factor in? D3 will certainly have online features more robust than D2 did, but it could go a long distance in that direction without being a full MMO that demands dozens of play hours a week, $15 a month, etc. I can't see bliz embracing RMT yet, but they could certainly try some tiered subscription level stuff like Flagship did with HGL and like most asian rpgs do; $5 a month for guild hall access, bigger stashes, some online-only realm-style content, etc. I'm not a big fan of that concept, but it's apparently the wave of the future for online gaming.

[Mestre Crjspim]

When I said "if Diablo III is a MMO", I meant to say that it would be a full MMO like WoW or Guild Wars. I do not question if there'll be multiplayer or not... I know that is for granted and in that point I completely agree with you when you describe the possible features of that multiplayer option, like you did in your last paragraph.

Concerning WoW vs. DIII, the only thing I can add to my previous opinions is that the Expansion Packs being released for WoW are to keep the number of players at a high level and to prevent them from moving on to another game of the same type. That is what I learned with my Business Management degree and what I am able to understand from the signs that they give to the market.

Still, I follow your thoughts and your contextualization of WoW and a possible announcement/release date for DIII. It is pretty possible and somewhat coerent, specially a release date at Xmas time, when shopping-frenzy is all over the globe. Altough, in this matter, maybe we should have some more insight from Blizzard's marketing strategy, because muach of their efforts will be directioned towards Starcraft 2. They are betting in this one and have WoW Expansion packs to boost as well, so a third title would definitely mean even more efforts and incremented costs. I don't doubt they can handle this, they have economic stability and financial liquidity, but are they bold enough?

[Drixx]

And we all know that a great amount of WoW players play it because there is no Diablo III.


We all know this really? I wasn't aware that a great amount of WoW players play WoW only because D3 doesn't exist. Is there some sort of survey or study out there that has info like this?

[Angel_of_Wrath]

I vote 66.6% chance for announcement at WWI. Too many factors coming together, its the perfect setup if there ever was one. Also, my gut says 99% but my cynicism says 1%.

[Mestre Crjspim]

We all know this really? I wasn't aware that a great amount of WoW players play WoW only because D3 doesn't exist. Is there some sort of survey or study out there that has info like this?

Simple observation... I don't play WoW, but I do play other MMOs and I'm a member of guilds and I do snoop around other forums, namely guild forums and Diablo, WoW as well as other games are discussed. I´m very active in Guild Wars and my guild has a great amount of members that play WoW. Some of them are continually saying that Diablo III is often discussed among the WoW comunity and they have said that WoW is just the alternative for the absence of the third Diablo game. And it is easily noticed in this forum that many people that have played WoW or still play it have their "game of election" in Diablo.
One thing I would like to get clear... I not saying that WoW is a bad or good game. If it's better than the Diablo series or worst. I have nothing against that particular game whatsoever, I am just stating some facts based on what I know, read and discuss with other people, nothing more. As I said before, I don't play WoW and didn't even try it, so I can't have any opinion about the game, but I can analyse it's market positioning and context.

[Luzt]

I highly doubt it's going to be announced in WWI. Big fat 0%

[chubz]

everyone is getting all hyped about d3 just because of the WWI date and the fact they acquired diablo3.com, but these things mean nothing, especially the acquisition of the domain name, imo it is best not to get your hopes up, only to have them utterly destroyed on June 28-29, I want d3 as much as the next guy but an announcement at the WWI is extremely unlikely imo, blizzard is still raking in cash from WoW by releasing expansions every so often and until this dies down I don't think there is hope for D3, and with WoTLK recently announced I think it will be a long time before a Diablo 3 will be announced(if it ever will be)

[Niyougegema]

What a bunch of doubters. I'm going 100%

I've seen the rumors of PCgamer staff recently being at Blizz headquarters, the uncanny date co-incidences and the aquisition of the diablo3.com domain... They all clearly point towards an announcement in the not-so-distant future.

Have faith people. Why would a great games company completely neglect they're arguably greatest creation, (lol aside from Lost Vikings)?

[Turbocannon]

I don't think it's going to be announced or released during World War I. But to be a bit more serious I'd say about 4-5% percent... no more than your average CTC Amp.

[chubz]

What a bunch of doubters. I'm going 100%

I've seen the rumors of PCgamer staff recently being at Blizz headquarters, the uncanny date co-incidences and the aquisition of the diablo3.com domain... They all clearly point towards an announcement in the not-so-distant future.

Have faith people. Why would a great games company completely neglect they're arguably greatest creation, (lol aside from Lost Vikings)?

the date "conicidence" means nothing like I said because that date were for RELEASES, not ANNOUNCEMENTS, and they certainly wouldn't release a game w/o first announcing it, and they acquire domain names all the time, so saying that it'll be announced because of that is like saying they're about to announce diablo 4 because they acquired a diablo 4 domain also(which they did), this is not to say they will not make a diablo 3, im certain that at some point they will because they would have to be extremely stupid not to, but Blizzard is very slow when it comes to doing anything that isn't related to WoW, i'm not trying to be negative, only realistic, and all these sites talking about it is only leading people into the hype more and more which is pointless, come june 28 when it isn't announced it will only be another blow to the diablo community that has already taken so many in the past few years, so why make it worse than it has to be? once this gets debunked the speculation will only start over and we will be looking towards october and blizzcon for an announcement and it'll be the exact same thing all over again

[ChrisF]

I have no idea if they will announce D3 or not, I wouldnt even like to consider a percentage. I just wanna say to all the people that have said it is a definate 0% or really low just because WoW is still going strong, chances are D3 will be pay to play or will have expansions/updates released regularly that you have to pay for, after all, how many people know of any recent online games that are actually free to play online and/or give free updates/expansions (I may just have led a very sheltered life and not know about them). I would like D3 to be free to play online but Blizzard a company with employees that need paying, and they need to make money somewhere.

If this is the case, Blizzard are not going to lose any money at all. Some people will stay with WoW and others will move to D3, either way Blizzard will be raking it in and so long as they are pulling in the cash I dont think they really care which game it comes from.

Just my humble opinion, I dont pretend to know everything I have said is totally true(e.g. D3 pay to play/none or few online games that are totally free), these are just the conclusions I have come to.

[Omikron8]

What a bunch of doubters. I'm going 100%

I've seen the rumors of PCgamer staff recently being at Blizz headquarters, the uncanny date co-incidences and the aquisition of the diablo3.com domain... They all clearly point towards an announcement in the not-so-distant future.

Have faith people. Why would a great games company completely neglect they're arguably greatest creation, (lol aside from Lost Vikings)?

i'll play the worst case scenario advocate

they see how MMOs are profiting (including their own) and see no reason in developing an action RPG game

blizzard is a business after all

[Sacrificer]

A business with passion...or lets hope its that way.

[Niyougegema]

the date "conicidence" means nothing like I said because that date were for RELEASES, not ANNOUNCEMENTS, and they certainly wouldn't release a game w/o first announcing it, and they acquire domain names all the time, so saying that it'll be announced because of that is like saying they're about to announce diablo 4 because they acquired a diablo 4 domain also(which they did), this is not to say they will not make a diablo 3, im certain that at some point they will because they would have to be extremely stupid not to, but Blizzard is very slow when it comes to doing anything that isn't related to WoW, i'm not trying to be negative, only realistic, and all these sites talking about it is only leading people into the hype more and more which is pointless, come june 28 when it isn't announced it will only be another blow to the diablo community that has already taken so many in the past few years, so why make it worse than it has to be?


Lol dude take a breath, that's one massive sentance. I didn't notice that the dates were for releases, but still it's a co-incidence. I don't think that there is anything wrong with building hype surrounding DiabloIII, it at least shows that there is a large community wanting a quality game. I think that if there is no countdown or change made to the Diablo3.com domain before the WWI, then probably there wont be an announcement. I reckon that an official 'hint' like this will happen soon...

[minizx]

imo we will have an announcment this year if not at the wwi then blizzcon will be a dead cert so im going for 60% on the wwi and the remaining 40% on blizzcon

all the speculation and hype surrounding diablo3 now is mounting towards an announcment and if there is no announcment i will be the first person to beseige blizz hq with my pitchfork and torch

[SnakeX]

I don't think they will, mainly because, like someone said earlier, I don't think they would want to overshadow StarCraft 2 while it's still in development. I remember reading that SC2 had been in development for a while before they went and announced it, so I have a feeling they'll do the same for Diablo 3, and perhaps wait until StarCraft 2 is released or near it's release date.

So I'd say about 1% chance that Blizzard will go ahead and announce Diablo 3 at WWI.

[minizx]

you do relize in total diablo 3 has been in development for around 5-6 years if you include the time spent on that was'nt up to scratch by the former blizz north members

also with the hype that is surrounding a d3 release i think that if it isnt announced we will have an e-riot on our hands :D

[raishi]

66.6% .

[SnakeX]

you do relize in total diablo 3 has been in development for around 5-6 years if you include the time spent on that was'nt up to scratch by the former blizz north members

Where's your proof that D3 has been in development for that long? And who, may I ask, was actually developing it? Blizzard North? Because obviously they're gone now, and whatever they had been working on at the time had been canceled. So it's all rumors.
Besides that, if it had been 5 to 6 years in development, we would have heard something on Diablo 3 by now, don't you think? But, we haven't. All we've got is Blizzard just now getting the Diablo3.com domain name, some job openings for artists, and assumptions & rumors. As much as I want to see Diablo 3 get some official attention, I just don't see it happening any time soon.