PDA

View Full Version : Chance distribution on runewords

Sagitarii
31-03-2008, 14:36
Where can I find what the chance is to roll certain modvalues? For example, I want to know what the chance is to roll 35% fcr on a Spirit (I've got 33 now, 2% short of my 125 breakpoint :rolleyes:) but I'm not sure if I should be re-rolling.
And it is nice to know if I should be investing HR's in certain runewords, or buying them with known modvalues.

krischan
31-03-2008, 14:41
The chances are distributed evenly, i.e. each percentage or amount is as likely as the other.

There are 11 possible fcr values on Spirit, so the chance for a particular amount (e.g. 35% :azn:) is 1 in 11.

Rumpkemania
11-04-2008, 05:59
Does that mean if you reroll the spirit 11 times in a row that your bound to get 35% fcr?

Orphan
11-04-2008, 06:22
Does that mean if you reroll the spirit 11 times in a row that your bound to get 35% fcr?

No, because each roll is separate and has no bearing on future or pass rolls. If that were true then if you toss a coin twice you would definately get 1 heads and 1 tails, because each have a 50/50 chance, but that's not the case. If you roll a spirit 10 times without getting a 35% FCR, then on your 11th try you still have 1/11 chance of getting 35%.

KremBanan
11-04-2008, 06:26
First attempt you have: 1/11 chance of getting 35fcr
second attempt: 1/11 chance
third attempt: 1/11 chance
fourth: 1/11

etc

stephan
11-04-2008, 07:44
The chance of rolling a 35% spirit after n tries is (1- (10/11)^n)*100%. After 11 tries you would have a 65% chance.

Rumpkemania
11-04-2008, 18:40
It makes sense now. Thanx for clearin it up ya'll ^^