Why is my luck so bad?

[chaosrulz]

Well

I thought the easiest way to get rich on ladder is through torch running. So I made a smiter and can easily solo the uber 3. Also made a key runner who can farm t and h keys very quickly and then trade them for d.

So I started torch running and all I got were crappy sin/barb/zon torches all the time. Then my friend advised me to sell the torches unid as they fetch more that way and that the chances of getting a torch thats worth more than what a unid torch is worth is really really low. So I took his advice and I sold the next torch unid. And you know .. as luck would have it, it turned out to be a 20/20 pally torch :((

I hate myself now!

[Smackin]

Two ways of selling torches:

Unid
ID

Unid way: much more constant profit, this is like government bonds with the stable return %

ID way: now we're talkin about no limit poker, u either win big or lose big. score a couple 20/xx Ptorches or Storches and ur on ur way to $$, score some 10/10 Dtorches and ur fried.

Take ur pick.

[chaosrulz]

I was going the second way. But I got too many crappy torches (once I had 12-/12- sin torches drop for me 5 times in a row). So I decided to go for constant profit .. and then this happens ..
oh well .. such is life .. back to hunting for keys .. and i think i'll stick with constant profit .. cause as i said .. my luck is terrible ;)

[Pillz]

For everyone 20/20 torch, you're going to find 40+ that aren't worth the time it took you to uber it.

Keep them unid if you want to profit in the long run.

[Doppel]

Just make sure you don't see them unidentify in case its a 20/20 , its that easy. :jig:

[stephan]

Just make sure you don't see them unidentify in case its a 20/20 , its that easy. :jig:
Yup. Whenever you've traded an unid'd item just exit the game right away.

I'd either ID all torches or sell them all unid'd. When you mix both, you'll always see you get the worst of both sides...

[chaosrulz]

lol .. very true :)
no more asking buyers for the stats from now on.

[Jednowlosy]

Did he show it to you or just told you its pala 20/20?

He just might have tricked you to make you angry.. :p

I always ID my torches. If it happens to be low, i just throw it away (unless its pala or sorc). Medium - i sell them for pgms or puls. High, well that's another story.

The only perfect one I've ever found was necro T. I didn't make much uber runs, though - like 8, maybe. :p

[chaosrulz]

He showed me the torch .. and I was just stunned and couldnt do anything .. almost even forgot to temp perm the hr ..
Anyways .. from now on I am never going to ask then the stats ..

[helvete]

Each season I like to build a few different characters. I usually end up selling off complete packages of gear which is otherwise close to worthless for runes.

For instance, a low necro torch, TO armor and gloves, low homunculus, low marrows, +3 summoning circlet and amu, arm, and a couple worthless rare rings with decent stats for ist. Sold one by one, these items wouldn't be half that value, but in a package, it makes for a decent summoner, which is sellable since a lot of people want to try out different builds, but don't want to MF/trade every little piece themselves because it's time consuming.

[krischan]

He showed me the torch .. and I was just stunned and couldnt do anything .. almost even forgot to temp perm the hr ..
Anyways .. from now on I am never going to ask then the stats ..

Good idea.

However, it might be worth it to make some statistics about the average value of each kind of torch in comparison to the market value of an unid one, like this:

Average value = (40*A+40*B+40*C+D)/121

A, B, C = value of bad, mediocre and good torch, D = value of perfect torch (only 1 in 121 is perfect, so it's weighted with only 1/121 of the whole).

Do that with each of the 7 kinds of torches, add these 7 values and divide by 7. That's the average value of a torch. If an unid one is worth less, ID them before selling them, else don't. My guess is that unid ones are worth more.

If there's a difference, you can obviously make a profit from that. Example: In ladder Europe, 35% Spirit monarchs are worth far less than the average amount of assets needed to produce one (which is 11 rune sets, 10 Hel runes, a monarch, a socket quest and 10 minutes worth of muling/cubing/trading time). That means, don't make Spirit monarchs yourself, but sell the runesets and buy 35% Spirit monarchs for half as much.

The reason for that difference often is that the market is already saturated with certain items, but also that people with no clue about statistics and logic have an influence on market values as well. Anyway, it doesn't matter why it is like that, the market is always right in this case.

[chaosrulz]

I did some kind of similar calculation before I started selling the torches unid (i've sold 2 more today besides the pally one, and I didnt ask the stats :P)
Its just so stunning that the minute I decide to sell them unid this happens .. anyways .. as I said earlier .. such is life .. and a lesson well learnt (never ask what a unid something was .. you are better off not knowing)

[Forbiddian]

Krischan, your calculation doesn't take into account the 9 classes.

Druid, Assassin, Amazon, Barb, to a lesser extent Necro, aren't worth very much.



But you have to think that it's also somehow cost-effective for people to buy them unid. Ex, someone is looking for a sorce torch. Why would they buy an unid? Double check your math, because it might be worth IDing them since others are doing that.

[Doppel]

Also, you never can calculate how much people want to give for a gamble or how much people like to gamble and so forth.
By the way, statistically it doesn't matter at all wether or not you ID them, the torches itself do not change only the people who buy.
The only thing you need for an average of how much any unid is worth is by knowing each and every value of all possible torches (100*7) by looking at the average each and everyone paid for them plus its timeset (begin ladder, mid ladder, and so forth) and then calculating how much chance each and every torch possibility has of dropping, thats it. (wich can never be 100% calculated because the timeset is in continues motion and is not a set value) The rest depends on the market nomatter what the actual average value of an unid T is.

[lendial]

selling unid is fun, just never ask what the stats were, frankly im not saddened that eth hoz i sold was a 163 ed ;x.

[Barcelona]

chaosrulz, i was gonna make an uber smiter coz i thought farming torches was one of the easiest ways to gain wealth, however i stopped when i thought" What if i get dru/sin/ama/barb/nec ?" lol

good luck to you tho

[chaosrulz]

My idea is this - I sell unid torches for a hr on uswscl. The only non pally/sorc torches that are worth about a hr are 19+/19+.
The total no. of possible torches = 7*10*10 = 700
No. of pally/sorc torches = 200
No. of other class torches worth a hr = 5*2*2 = 20
So no. of torches worth < hr = 700-220 = 480

% of torches worth < hr = 480/700 ~ 70%

So about 70% of the torches are worth less than hr. And this average is reached only after I have done a really large number of runs (thats how probability works).

So I decided I should start selling them unid for a hr. Also since all my characters have torches already, I dont really need any torch for myself.

Investment wise I can get about 6keysets for a hr. So for every unid torch I sell I am getting the opportunity to get 2 more unid torches and so on. So over time I will definitely make profit always :)

Hence my decision to sell them unid. Its a sure way to gain profit and I am steadily gaining atleast 1hr a day thanks to this tactic :)

[krischan]

Krischan, your calculation doesn't take into account the 9 classes.

Druid, Assassin, Amazon, Barb, to a lesser extent Necro, aren't worth very much.

Sure I did:

Do that with each of the 7 kinds of torches, add these 7 values and divide by 7. That's the average value of a torch. If an unid one is worth less, ID them before selling them, else don't. My guess is that unid ones are worth more.

BTW, there are only 7 classes, not 9.

But you have to think that it's also somehow cost-effective for people to buy them unid. Ex, someone is looking for a sorce torch. Why would they buy an unid? Double check your math, because it might be worth IDing them since others are doing that.
Everything is right with my math. I don't do it to calculate the value of an unid torch, but the average value of an identified one, to compare it with the value of unid ones which are not (or not only) the result of a calculation, but of supply and demand.

It's not me who has to be asked why people buy unid torches in spite of that. Ask them instead. However, if you can find an error in my math, feel free to show me.

[Doppel]

My idea is this - I sell unid torches for a hr on uswscl. The only non pally/sorc torches that are worth about a hr are 19+/19+.
The total no. of possible torches = 7*10*10 = 700
No. of pally/sorc torches = 200
No. of other class torches worth a hr = 5*2*2 = 20
So no. of torches worth < hr = 700-220 = 480

% of torches worth < hr = 480/700 ~ 70%

So about 70% of the torches are worth less than hr. And this average is reached only after I have done a really large number of runs (thats how probability works).

So I decided I should start selling them unid for a hr. Also since all my characters have torches already, I dont really need any torch for myself.

Investment wise I can get about 6keysets for a hr. So for every unid torch I sell I am getting the opportunity to get 2 more unid torches and so on. So over time I will definitely make profit always :)

Hence my decision to sell them unid. Its a sure way to gain profit and I am steadily gaining atleast 1hr a day thanks to this tactic :)

You don't take into account how much the 20 torches are worth, if they together are worth how much the rest of torches on average are worth then it would be kinda correct.
Problem is that i have no idea how much they are worth thus you can't make a comparison between them and the rest. (for example, if the 20 T's are on average 50 hr's worth each then 1 hr per unid is relatively cheap seeing that the chance of getting 1 of those 20 T's is 1/35)

[chaosrulz]

The 20s are worth about 3hr I guess .. what I wanted to say was that selling them unid was a very easy way for me to "fuel" my next run and for every 2runs I make I get a hr profit .. so its a slow but sure way to keep making profit :)

[Doppel]

Yep, its consistent, i think that that is the main reason why to sell them unid. (because doing those 35 runs and identifying them and having nothing but crap torches will hurt a lot if you are not overly rich)

[admante]

I helped out a friend with his first uber run (mine too, but I was properly prepared). He was deciding on whether to ID it or sell unID'd. I convinced him to ID and it turned out to be 16/14 pally. I could have gotten that torch unid from him for an orgset... But I don't feel like gambling.