chances of cubing a 45 life skiller

[lookbehindyou]

I was just wondering if any math genius' have done the math on rolling a skill charm with 45 life, skin wouldn't matter.

Its taking all the different possible numbers in the possible categories (prefix+suffix) and adding them together right ? :scratch:

Thanks for any replies in advance, lay my mind to rest please :jig:

[FrankWest]

I'm going to leave the exact math here to Orphan et al who know the statistics far better than I do, but I'll give two answers based on just straightforward math.

1) Infinitesimal.

2) Chance of a Baal GC becoming a skiller at all is roughly 1/30. Then from there you've got another increment for every point into FHR/Str/Dex/All elemental/physical damages/gold find and so on which can spawn on it. My ballpark guess? About 1 : 470 chance of any 45 life skiller.

And all of this is assuming that all of the mods have an equal chance of spawning. If life has a 25% better chance to spawn than strength as a secondary mod, then I'm even more wrong than I (assuredly) already would be otherwise.

[lookbehindyou]

ty for reply

1:470 doesnt seem to be that much really but your guess is as good if not better than mine. Dont know if all stats have same chances of spawning, I do know that when an item is rolled a categorie is chosen first then the number in it. That would mean you would have to hit 4 homeruns to get a run for your pgs :grin:

Not sure but think thats how it work.

[Orphan]

Assuming ilvl 91 or greater GC (since that's what you need for +45 life):

You have a 4/100 chance of getting "of Vita (+41-45)". You have 21/242 chance of getting any +1 skill tab.

The odds of getting a +1 skill tab, +45 life GC is 1:5761. This is taking into account the odds of actually rolling +45 on the +41-45 "of vita" suffix.


Note that the odds of getting any skiller on an ilvl 50 GC is only 1:43 (regardless of suffix). If you wanted any +life at that ilvl (up to +30), then it's 1:184, though remember you could also roll +5 to life.

[krischan]

You have 21/242 chance of getting any +1 skill tab.

...

Note that the odds of getting any skiller on an ilvl 50 GC is only 1:43 (regardless of suffix)
Hmm, shouldn't the chances to get +skills become lower at higher ilvls because the affix selection becomes broader ? 21/242 is about 1:11...

I'm not sure about the exact numbers, so I won't speculate about what might be wrong here...

[Orphan]

Hmm, shouldn't the chances to get +skills become lower at higher ilvls because the affix selection becomes broader ? 21/242 is about 1:11...

I'm not sure about the exact numbers, so I won't speculate about what might be wrong here...

I didn't remove my chance of both suffix & prefix calc (which is irrelevant for just a skiller prefix). To get a skiller at an ilvl 50 GC you have a 21/230 chance or 1:10 chance. To get it plus a suffix you would have a 1:43 chance :wink3:

[lookbehindyou]

Great, you truly are a math wizard orphan. I get dizzy if I have to look at too many numbers :dizzy: Even though thats a pretty big number by estimate it may be worth it using the pgems if one kept at it, selling off the charms that had some value on the way.

[thegiantturtle]

I didn't remove my chance of both suffix & prefix calc (which is irrelevant for just a skiller prefix). To get a skiller at an ilvl 50 GC you have a 21/230 chance or 1:10 chance. To get it plus a suffix you would have a 1:43 chance :wink3:But there's only a 50% chance to get a prefix. You seem to have forgotten that.

[lookbehindyou]

Does that make it 1:2 x 1:5761 then ?

[thegiantturtle]

Does that make it 1:2 x 1:5761 then ?No, the 1:5761 chance took into account the 1/2 chance of a prefix and 3/4 chance of a suffix.

[Orphan]

But there's only a 50% chance to get a prefix. You seem to have forgotten that.

Heh, I'm on a roll. Wonder if I can get strike 3.

Alrighty, taking into account the 50% chance of getting only a prefix, you have a 1:21 chance of getting any skiller with an ilvl 50 GC.

[krischan]

1:21 sounds better, that's the number I had in my mind regarding +skills. :azn:

[thegiantturtle]

Heh, I'm on a roll. Wonder if I can get strike 3.

Alrighty, taking into account the 50% chance of getting only a prefix, you have a 1:21 chance of getting any skiller with an ilvl 50 GC.Since when do you round down 21.9 to 21? :tongue: