Mf on countness runs?

[Miikai]

Im going to start key runs soon but i wonder, when i run countness,she drops mid level runes. Will mf % affect on runes? Beter mf % beter runes that count can drop?

[Orphan]

No, MF% doesn't affect rune drops. The only way to get better rune drops would be to increase the player count.

[Gargelkarrg]

rune-drops are not affected by mf, as they are not magical items. Same goes with keys. :thumbsup:

[Gargelkarrg]

No, MF% doesn't affect rune drops. The only way to get better rune drops would be to increase the player count.

HA! Here we have Orphan`s 2 %:

Best chances for more than 1 rune dropping from Countess is, when you play at players/1. Because the countess has 2 rounds for item drops. First only items, second only rune(s). At playersetting/1 the chance that not all possible items are to drop from first round is higher than on playersetting/8. So every item that does not drop increases the count of possible rune-drops.

[Orphan]

HA! Here we have Orphan`s 2 %:

Best chances for more than 1 rune dropping from Countess is, when you play at players/1. Because the countess has 2 rounds for item drops. First only items, second only rune(s). At playersetting/1 the chance that not all possible items are to drop from first round is higher than on playersetting/8. So every item that does not drop increases the count of possible rune-drops.


Ah, you're saying that based on the fact that her item drop is rolled before her rune drop. But her item drop is capable of dropping higher runes. You are correct in saying that if you want more runes to drop from her rune drop, you're better off playing at a lower player count, but it's still a valid statement to say that the only thing that increases the odds of a rune dropping is player count :wink3:

Edit: To put it another way, the only way to increase the odds of a rune dropping is to decrease the odds of a no drop. The only way to decrease the odds of a no-drop is to increase the player count. Even for the countess, who has 2 drops (item, then rune), a decrease in the "no-drop" factor will still increase the odds of a rune dropping from her second pick. By default, the "rune drop" has a 5/20 chance of a no drop. Only a higher player count will decrease this chance.

[Miikai]

Can count drop up to Vex or was it Ist?

[Orphan]

Can count drop up to Vex or was it Ist?

On Hell, her rune drop can drop up to an Ist, while her item drop can drop up to a Lo.

[Miikai]

Great! Thank You.

[Gargelkarrg]

:scratch: So this guide: http://forums.diabloii.net/showthread.php?t=178289
says, that best chances to get runes up to Ist is by doing countess runs on playersetting/1 (about 1.8 runes per kill). As you increase the playersetting, the chance to drop all items in the item-round (including possible rune-drops up to Lo-runes) increases, but therefore the rune-drop-round (for runes up to Ist) drops down to 1 rune.

As those increased chances for runes upt to Lo are only 0,000436% (at playersetting/4-8)to 0,000312% (at playersetting/1)for Lo runes, I guess you always go better with playersetting/1.

[Orphan]

:scratch: So this guide: http://forums.diabloii.net/showthread.php?t=178289
says, that best chances to get runes up to Ist is by doing countess runs on playersetting/1 (about 1.8 runes per kill). As you increase the playersetting, the chance to drop all items in the item-round (including possible rune-drops up to Lo-runes) increases, but therefore the rune-drop-round (for runes up to Ist) drops down to 1 rune.

Well, it depends how you want to look at it I guess. I mean, at a player 1 drop the countess has a 1:1109 chance of dropping an Ist rune on Hell (by far the best chance, with next in line being 1:85962 for Summoner). But at a player 2 drop, that chance get's changed to 1:887 for an Ist, for Countess.
So with the increase of a single player, you've cut the odds of an Ist rune dropping down by about 21% (1/5).

Basically, at players 1 her "no drop" for runes is 5/20 (75% chance of dropping a rune). On players 2, it's 1/16 (93.75% chance of dropping a rune). Players 3 is the cut-off point for her rune drop, at which point she'll have a no drop of 0. Additional players beyond this will do little other than to increase her HP and Exp.

Now, the question is how much did that extra player affect her item drop? Well, at players 1 her "no-drop" for her item drop is 19/68 (72.05% chance of dropping an item). At players 2, it's 4/53 (1/13) (92.45% chance of dropping an item). Players 4 is the cutoff point for her item drop, at which point she'll have a no drop of 0.

So I guess the choice is whether you want a 72% chance of getting an item from her item drop (which may or may not be a rune) and then a 75% chance of getting a rune from her rune drop (in the event that the item drop fails enough to allow for the rune drops), or whether you want a 92% chance of getting an item from her item drop (which again may or may not be a rune) and then a 93% chance of getting a rune from her rune drop.

Of course, the odds of a Lo rune dropping from her item drop is about 1:320196 on a players 1 drop, and 1:248510 on a players 2 drop. :wink3:

[Gargelkarrg]

:scratch: So who is on the wrong way? You or me?

On the item-round, the countess has a chance to drop up to 5 items. IRRC at players/1 the chance for EACH of those items to drop is at about 72%. So in 5 rounds of trying to drop an item the possibility of a non-drop is 28 * 5 = 140 %. That gives a 140%-chance to have an extra go on the rune-drop-round. Now we have with that given 100% of a rune-drop-chance 2 rune-drop-rounds whith each 75 % of dropping a rune and a 40%-chance for a third rune-drop-round with another 75% chance to dro a rune. Already on the first 2 rounds the chance to drop a rune lies at 150% and another 30% for that possible third rune-drop-round, makes a chance to drop a rune at about 180%.

So if we put it to players/2, the chance of an item-drop is at about 92% and therefor the chance for a non-drop on all 5 rounds is 8*8=64%. So there is is only a 64%-chance to drop an extra rune on the rune-drop. So with chances raised to drop runes from 75% to 93%, we still only have a chance to drop a rune at about 152.5% (93% out of first rune-drop-round and another 93% of that 64%-chance for a second rune-drop-round = 59.5%)

This makes it quite a higher chance to drop more runes up to Ist on playersetting/1 than playersetting/2 and higher.

[Orphan]

So who is on the wrong way? You or me?

That depends on priorities.


I hate calculating probability, I really do, but here's a few things to consider:

The countess can drop a max of 6 items. Her item drop rolls 5 times, and her rune drop rolls 3 times. As a result, even if the no drop value of her item drop was to be 0, then she would still roll at least once from her rune drop.

So what we're really talking about here is the bonus of the extra 2 rolls of her rune drop. Even with a 90% chance of dropping an item from her item drop, if she were to fail once out of the 5 picks you would double her rune picks from her rune drop. Basically, she would need to fail 2 times out of 5 in order for you to get full access to her rune drops.

She has a 27% chance of failing at least 1 of her item drops at players 2. That's a 27% chance of doubling your rune drops (1 every 3 runs), which themselves have a 93% chance of dropping a rune. The odds of her failing 2 of her item drops is only 4% however, so it's unlikely you would get all 3 drops.

So if we put it to players/2, the chance of an item-drop is at about 92% and therefor the chance for a non-drop on all 5 rounds is 8*8=64%. So there is is only a 64%-chance to drop an extra rune on the rune-drop

That's not really accurate, no. The odds of a failed drop on all 5 drops would be:

Probability of failing 5 times = 1 * (49/53)^0 * (4/53) ^ 5 ~ 0.000244862% ~ 1:408394

Another way of looking at it is:

Probability of failing 5 times = 4/53*4/53*4/53*4/53*4/53 ~ 0.000244862% ~ 1:408394

Not that it helps my case though, but the likelyhood if it occuring is slim :wink3:

The probabily of selecting 5 items from her item pick is:

Probability of failing 0 times = 1 * (49/53)^5 * (4/53) ^ 0 ~ 67%


Of course, we need to also consider the runes themselves. It goes without saying that if you wanted to get a Gul, Vex, Ohm or Lo rune from her, you will need the player count to be at least 4 in order to have a no drop of 0 for her item drop. As a bonus, you would still have 1 pick from her rune drop too.


On players 1 though, the circumstances are the same. She can still drop 5 items, and subsequently 1 rune. In order for her to drop 3 runes, she needs to fail at least 2 of her item drops. The odds of her failing 0 times (ie, dropping 5 items) is 19%. The odds of her failing once (dropping 4 items) is 37%. The odds of her failing twice (dropping 3 items) is 29%. The odds of her failing all 5 times (dropping 0 items) is 17%.

So on one hand, you have a 37% chance chance at players 1 of only get 2 picks from the runes. At players 2, you have a 27% chance. If you want all 3 picks though, you'll want it at players 1 though.

But then you need to factor in the odds of the rune TC failing to drop anything at all (70% chance on players 1, 90% chance on players 2). Likewise, you also need to consider the increased chances of dropping a rune higher than Ist from her item drop (1:320196 for Lo at players 1, 1:248510 for Lo at players 2, a cut of 23%).


I don't have the time to sit down and calculate all these variables though. I mean, at first glance it would appear that the odds of getting at least 2 rune picks is pretty close on a players 1 and players 2 setting, except that on players 2 you have a higher chance of actually getting a rune from the picks. On a players 1 setting though, you have a better chance at getting 3 picks, but you sacrifice the better chance of getting a rune from her item picks.

[WebDragon]

I'd like to say that no matter what the statistical difference is between 1 player and 2 or 3, from a realistic standpoint, unless you're playing SP, you're definitely better off running her in big games since her chances of dropping keys improve significantly.

[LozHinge the Unhinged]

I'm reading this thread with great interest.
I haven't yet done enough runs to provide valid input for statistical purposes, but for some reason, I think I'm getting better rune drops on /players 8 than on /players 1. By better drops, I mean this: if you assign 1 point to an El rune, 3 pts to an Eld, 9 to a Tir, etc, the most points are accrued under /players 8. I haven't tried any other /players settings.

Is it better by far to run [/players 1 or 2] or [/players 8]? Edit: For Rune purposes, I mean.

[Delreich]

Just one thing, regarding Orphan's calculations: the players in these reasonings are partied in-area players, not plain boring /players players.

So, for unpartied runs, do a mental substitution of 3 for 2, 5 for 3 and 7 for 4. For a guaranteed 5 drops of the item type, you'd need /players 7, or an almost full game.

[LozHinge the Unhinged]

Thanks for the further clarification, Delreich.

[helvete]

Based on expirience, and the fact that runes can be cubed, I would say that the "increased chance of x HR" from countess' first drop actually makes it take LONGER to cube a x HR from Ists (alone, not cubing lower runes at all) from her second drop.

And I have made both CTA and HOTO on SP using countess runes and no hellforge runes or LK runes (didn't know about LK runs at that time).

[helvete]

Based on expirience, and the fact that runes can be cubed, I would say that the "increased chance of x HR" from countess' first drop actually makes it take LONGER to cube a x HR from Ists (alone, not cubing lower runes at all) from her second drop.

And I have made both CTA and HOTO on SP using countess runes and no hellforge runes or LK runes (didn't know about LK runs at that time).

When I read that again now, I realize that was poorly put. What I meant was that it takes longer to cube x HR with increasing players setting.