Key well dried up?

[SirGalahad]

What is this?? I've hit the key bosses like 50 times (all together) without a single key dropping. Has anyone else noticed a drop in key availablity?

Note: I mean Hate, Terror or Destruction keys.

[thegiantturtle]

What is this?? I've hit the key bosses like 50 times (all together) without a single key dropping. Has anyone else noticed a drop in key availablity?Not a change. Just the logistics of chance. That should happen around 1% of the time.

[SirGalahad]

Not a change. Just the logistics of chance. That should happen around 1% of the time.


Just my bad luck then :sad2: O.K.

[SirGalahad]

I'm going to keep a running tally. Add another 9 runs and the total is 59 with no key. Isn't there supposed to be a %11 chance to get a key?

[RYUhaduKEN]

I'm going to keep a running tally. Add another 9 runs and the total is 59 with no key. Isn't there supposed to be a %11 chance to get a key?


Honestly I have had the same problem, I have done around 70 runs between today and yesterday at all three places for keys and have only gotten a tkey and an hkey... what is going on

[architectofpain]

I've done about 150 runs with no D key, although I've had enough H and T to do about 3 full runs (minus D obviously). Sometimes I'll find 3 D keys within an hour, and find no T keys for the next 2 or 3 days. It's the wierd chance. It's like finding nothing but gold from baal for 5 hours, then the next day you find a windforce your first run.

[Qwezicul]

One of the problems of the human mind is the tendancy to rationalize randomness, and to look to for patterns where none exist.

Just bad luck man :tongue:

[SirGalahad]

One of the problems of the human mind is the tendancy to rationalize randomness, and to look to for patterns where none exist.

Just bad luck man :tongue:


Well said man! I always thought that there was something wrong with that “rational” thing. Out with it!

[SirGalahad]

Update: About 75 runs and one Dkey. Will keep updating but I can't help wondering if Blizz has reduced the chances of finding a key??

[DmUgluk]

Yes I wonder too...
maybe its the rationalising thing, I tend to do this, but I don't get many keys at all. Earlier in 1.11 my stashes were full of keys - dropped by occasionally killing Nihlathak and the Countess for fun. Now I try to find them and I just don't get any keys.
I found one D key in the last month, and thats all.

[BlueOctoberFan]

Would it be possible that servers are set to only drop a certain number of keys in a given time frame, and with more people hunting keys, relatively fewer are finding them?

[sorcyone]

I'm going to keep a running tally. Add another 9 runs and the total is 59 with no key. Isn't there supposed to be a %11 chance to get a key?

Assuming 12% chance for a drop and 1 player in the game that's about 1 in 2,000 chance of having no key in 59 runs which is not significant at all.

I once got 4 keys from 3 Nith runs (roughly 4 players in the games) - 1,1,2 and the first run someone had got there and killed him first and missed a key.
I always try for 8 player games.
I find it easiest to spend an hour getting about 6 dkeys, and trade 3 for 3 each of H and T.

[ffejrxx]

odds of each key being droped are around 1/40 (2.5%), or 3/40 (7.5%) for 1 of them to drop a key, and it is possible for a boss to drop 2keys, iv seen it happen once
and iv had a run where i got 1 of each key:grin:

if you flip a coin 100 times and they all land heads up, the odds of the next flip will still remain 50/50

[thegiantturtle]

odds of each key being droped are around 1/40 (2.5%), or 3/40 (7.5%) for 1 of them to drop a key, and it is possible for a boss to drop 2keys, iv seen it happen onceWhat is your source for this info? It doesn't match what we know about the drop chances on single player. See the Item Generation Tutorial's post 22 (http://forums.diabloii.net/showpost.php?p=3893606&postcount=22) for the real chances.

[SirGalahad]

odds of each key being droped are around 1/40 (2.5%), or 3/40 (7.5%) for 1 of them to drop a key, and it is possible for a boss to drop 2keys, iv seen it happen once
and iv had a run where i got 1 of each key:grin:

That looks a bit closer to the odds that I have been getting


if you flip a coin 100 times and they all land heads up, the odds of the next flip will still remain 50/50

still, I think that one reason why some of us are running keys is that we are getting better odds.

[maewyn]

if you flip a coin 100 times and they all land heads up, the odds of the next flip will still remain 50/50

This is only true if you make one major assumption - that the odds are actually 50/50. If I saw heads 100 times in row, I would question that assumption (is the coin weighted so that one side will come up more often?, etc.).:rolleyes:

Now back to the topic... I seem to remember reading in one the guides that the odds of key dropping were about 1/40 (2.5%). What is the actual chance?

[BloZ]

I seem to only have bad luck with Nihlathak, I've found many keys of Terror and Hate lately, but no Destruction keys, even after dozens of runs...

I guess I'll have to trade for them :tongue:

[SirGalahad]

I seem to only have bad luck with Nihlathak, I've found many keys of Terror and Hate lately, but no Destruction keys, even after dozens of runs...

I guess I'll have to trade for them :tongue:


That's not bad luck. I'm almost certian that Nihlathak drops less Keys in general. That's also another reason why Dkeys trade for more (The other reason being that it's a tougher, more dangerous run.).

Note: I seem to remember the key running guid mentioned this as well.

[BloZ]

Really? I thought the odds were about:

1/14 for Terror Key
1/12 for Destruction Key
1/11 for Hate Key

or something like that. I don't think Destruction keys drop less often. If that was the case, it would not be worth the trouble of going to Nihlathak...

[sorcyone]

Really? I thought the odds were about:

1/14 for Terror Key
1/12 for Destruction Key
1/11 for Hate Key

or something like that. I don't think Destruction keys drop less often. If that was the case, it would not be worth the trouble of going to Nihlathak...

I think so too. Certainly that is about the drop rate I get.
maewyn mentions 2.5%. But I think you get something like 3 chances with 1 player so you need to multiply by 3 which would make it about right.

[GreyGhost]

I have the same problem of not being able to find keys, and its soooo frustrating.

The thing is that you're doing so many runs, the law of averages catches up with you and eventually you're going to hit a spell where you find nothing.

But according to the same law, you should break the slump if you just keep doing key runs, because overall we're talking about possibly hundreds of runs. Don't be discouraged after such a short time.

[thegiantturtle]

Now back to the topic... I seem to remember reading in one the guides that the odds of key dropping were about 1/40 (2.5%). What is the actual chance?Follow the link in post 14 in this thread.

maewyn mentions 2.5%. But I think you get something like 3 chances with 1 player so you need to multiply by 3 which would make it about right.One, it's 5 drops <sneaky edit - thank you helvete>. Two, you can't simply multiply by the number of chances. Follow the link in post 14 in this thread.

[SirGalahad]

I think so too. Certainly that is about the drop rate I get.
maewyn mentions 2.5%. But I think you get something like 3 chances with 1 player so you need to multiply by 3 which would make it about right.

Can't say much about that as I've done almost exclusively dkey runs until recently. I was going off what the Key hunting guid said about the rarity of keys (Can't find the post) but if you guys get better odds then Great!

Update: In the recent days I've found another 2 keys so that averages to roughly 3 keys in 100 runs. Glad things are getting back to normal

To GreyGohst: Yea it can be pretty scary when you go 70 runs with a big fat 0. :yikes:

To GiantTurtle: Thanks for the great link, Sry I missed the it. I will read your post more carefully from now on. :listen:

[helvete]

Follow the link in post 14 in this thread.

One, it's 5 drops from the summoner and nihlathak and 3-5 from the countess (depending on her rune drop). Two, you can't simply multiply by the number of chances. Follow the link in post 14 in this thread.
This part is incorrect: The rune drop is calculated AFTER her normal drop, which keys are a part of. This is also the reason why she drops a lot less runes in full games. (likely to drop five items from normal drop, and only one drop left for the rune drop).

[thegiantturtle]

This part is incorrect: The rune drop is calculated AFTER her normal drop, which keys are a part of. This is also the reason why she drops a lot less runes in full games. (likely to drop five items from normal drop, and only one drop left for the rune drop).Yea, I messed that up in a post in the community forum as well. krischan caught that one, and I was just coming to fix it here.