What are the odds...

[qscwdvefzrax]

This ladder season I had the fortune of getting 1 Annihilus charm and 3 Torches. The Annihilus was a 14/14/7 stat resist, and the torches were 19/19/zon, 17/17/barb and 15/19/assn. Are the chances of getting 3 identical-stat/resist on 3 charms (1/11)^3, or 1/1331 (7.513E-4)?

[JooopIE]

This ladder season I had the fortune of getting 1 Annihilus charm and 3 Torches. The Annihilus was a 14/14/7 stat resist, and the torches were 19/19/zon, 17/17/barb and 15/19/assn. Are the chances of getting 3 identical-stat/resist on 3 charms (1/11)^3, or 1/1331 (7.513E-4)?

I guess it's [(1/11)*(1/11)]^3= 1/1771561, because each charm also has 11*11 possibilities.

Edit: hmm, ofc 11 of the 121 charms are 'good'... but I'm not quite sure whether it's that easy or that you'll need to add a combination/permutation. Damn, now I realize it's a long time ago I did some Stats exercises :D.

[Myrakh-2]

I guess it's [(1/11)*(1/11)]^3= 1/1771561, because each charm also has 11*11 possibilities.

Not quite.

11 values per slot, 2 slots. Each slot is rolled independently; therefore there are 121 combinations, all of equal chance.

Of these 121 combinations we "like" 11 --- the ones where both slots get the same value. Hence the chance of that happening on a single item is 11/121 or 1/11.

Now again, all three charms are rolled independently, and each one has a 11/121 chance of being one we "like". This would give a chance of 1/(11*11*11) or 1/1331

[qscwdvefzrax]

Thanks for the confirmation. How do these odds compare to finding an ohm rune from the countess?

[Makromizer]

Its not 1/11^3, that would be the case if you have it in 3 out of 3 picks.
But in 3 out of 4, it is 4/11^3 (same as 1/(11^3/(4 above 3))), as you have to divide thru the possible permutations. In absolute numbers, its like 1:332.75 instead of 1:1331, so the odds are still quite small.

[thegiantturtle]

Thanks for the confirmation. How do these odds compare to finding an ohm rune from the countess? The chance of those charms getting those stat pairings is greatly more likely than finding an Ohm from countess on any one run or even ever.

[Makromizer]

The chance of those charms getting those stat pairings is greatly more likely than finding an Ohm from countess on any one run or even ever.

Yes, definitely.
Finding an Ist at Count is about 1:1000, so even the chance to find an Ist is 3 times lower. Now talking about HRs...

[helvete]

These are odds for OHM.

1 : 213464 The Countess - [H] Tower Cellar Level 5 - {mlvl 82}

That's the odds from 1.10, before her dropping keys screwed my drop calculator over (haven't upgraded ATMA... about time...).

1 : 175232 The Summoner - [H] Arcane Sanctuary - {mlvl 82}

As you can see, for runes above Ist, the countess isn't the best single monster anymore. (However, The Summoner ALSO had his drops "nerfed" a little to make room for keys)

[qscwdvefzrax]

Just a small update, and sorry to resurrect this thread.

My last two torches: 15 stats, 10 resist, Sorc skills. Odds? 1 : 717409. Now where are my runes?

[aicoped]

actaully the odds of getting two identical torches in a row is much higher than what you calculated. The odds of getting the exact torches 2 times in a row is 7*11*11.

Any given drop is always rare but you are bound yto find silliness since we do enough things. I i have done about 40 torch runs now and i got 3 necro torches in a row, and 2 pally torches followed by a sorc torch.

[Quietust]

actaully the odds of getting two identical torches in a row is much higher than what you calculated. The odds of getting the exact torches 2 times in a row is 7*11*11.

No, that's the probability of getting ONE torch with specific stats (1/11 * 1/11 * 1/7 = 1/847) - get TWO identical torches in a row, and you multiply those together (1/847 * 1/847) and get 1/717409.

[aicoped]

No matter which torch you get, the second on is going to be the same as it with the odds of 1/7*11*11.

Now if you were searching for a specific torch to begin with with the stats of 12/18 necro then yes to get two of those in a row, you would be right.

But every time you find a torch and id it, the odds that the next one will be the same is 1/7*11*11.

Because you are guarenteed that it will have stats.

[qscwdvefzrax]

No matter which torch you get, the second on is going to be the same as it with the odds of 1/7*11*11.

Now if you were searching for a specific torch to begin with with the stats of 12/18 necro then yes to get two of those in a row, you would be right.

But every time you find a torch and id it, the odds that the next one will be the same is 1/7*11*11.

Because you are guarenteed that it will have stats.
Yes you are right about the odds for getting identical torches in two consecutive runs being 1/847, but mine is the case where I specified getting 15/10 sorc torches (even though I did not predict getting that first one the way it was) so the odds are 1/717409