math problem

[DragonKnight_Aka]

lets say u had a zealot and u attacked 15 times and someone haed 75% of block how many times would u hit ??
then the other way around for how many times would u block

if anyone knows this 1 if I did 2k damage and it fant gave me 200%

[Gta-maloy]]

Ok, you need to realize that you cannot say exactly how many hits out of 15 will hit. There are more factors than just block%. The opponent's Defence and your Attack rating also come into play.

Though the odds are better that some hits are blocked, you can still hit him 15 times in a row...all depends.

As for your damage question. When the aura is equiped, the displayed damage will be after the fanat calculation. Take away the aura to know how much damage you really do.

[krischan]

An average number of 15 * percentage/100 = 3.75 times will not get blocked, but these attacks still have to overcome the defense rating, of course.

The chance to overcome blocking 15 times in a row is 0.25^15 = 1/1,000,000,000.

Thile the chance not to overcome blocking even once is 0.75^15 = 1/75.

[Awaiting-Death]

Ok, here's a little lesson on probability:

Let's say we roll a 6 sided dice. Each time that we roll it, we have a (1/6*100) 16.6% chance of getting a 1. We also have a 16.6% of getting a 6.

It does not matter what the last roll was when we consider a brand new roll. This is very important to realize.

So in answer to your question, if they have a 75% block rate, then you will get through their sheild 25% of the time. That means that (15*1/4) 3.75 (that means 4 hits 3/4's of the time, 3 hits 1/4 of the time) of your hits will make it through their sheild, on average.

BUT if you want to consider something like the chance that every single hit will get through the sheild, then that is a different question.

Each hit has a 1/4 (25/100) chance of getting through the sheild, and each consecutive hit after this is compounded onto the last hit with the same probability.

So for 2 consecutive hits, you have a (1/4*1/4 = 1/(4^2) ) 1/16th (6.25%)chance of getting through, and for all 15 hits to get through, you have a (1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4 = 1/(4^15) ) 0.0000000931322574615478515625% chance of all the hits getting through the sheild.

But remember that this is just the chance to get through the sheild. So if you have insane amounts of attack rating, and you have a 95% chance of hitting (the highest possible) then you have only a (0.000000000931322574615478515625 *0.95) 0.000000088475644588470458984375 chance of hitting them all 15 times.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, you have a (3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4 = 3/(4^15) ) 0.0000002793967723846435546875% chance of missing 15 consecutive swings, which is (exactly) a 3 times greater chance of hitting all 15 times.

So to finally answer your question:

Most of the time: You will hit 4 times at (6000/4 **) 1500dmg = 6000dmg
but
You have a chance of hitting more or less times than that, and the farther away from your average you get, the less likely you will be of getting it.

**remember that pvp dmg is 1/4 actual dmg

but anyway.... :yawn:

[RTB]

**remember that pvp dmg is 1/4 actual dmg
That was 1.09. 17% is the new penalty, and 1/6th can be used as an approximation for easy calcs.

[Awaiting-Death]

That was 1.09. 17% is the new penalty, and 1/6th can be used as an approximation for easy calcs.

oops, ok, then dmg is 4 hits at (6000*0.17) 1020dmg = 4080dmg

thanks

[Oscuro]

On the opposite side of the spectrum, you have a (3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4*3/4 = 3/(4^15) ) 0.0000002793967723846435546875% chance of missing 15 consecutive swings, which is (exactly) a 3 times greater chance of hitting all 15 times.
3/(4^15) is not the same as (3/4)^15. In this case, (3/4)^15 is the correct expression to use, and it evaluates very closely to 1/75, as krischan said.

[Gta-maloy]]

>< all that was really pointless....

You have a 25% chance to hit, on each hit....this never changes. Thank god the game calculates for each hit ><

Like I said above.

[krischan]

The correct answer would have been 42, I guess.

You are right, nobody gave the answer to the original question, but we tried to answer the question that should have been asked instead ("What's the average number of hits and what will be the average deviation from that number ?"). The problem is, that the question seems to imply that there is a fixed number of attacks that will hit ("How many times would you hit ?") which isn't applicable. This is about random events, we can only speak about probabilities and average numbers.

[DragonKnight_Aka]

I was trying ask the avarge chance so I get a idea of many times it would hit like a faction I didn't really want this to be a big debate :grrr:
k new way to look at this since zeal not working lets use a zon cuz gudied arrow ignores def so the only thing that helps u against dem is blocking.
now if she shoots 15 times and my block was 75% would divide that or do I need to do something



P.S. if this is too confusing then l'll just drop the question....

[DragonKnight_Aka]

I sorta read ur threats again got the idea that their kinda no answer to this question cuz it's all chance so l'll just drop it thx for the help ...

[vdzele]

You have a chance of blocking 75%. This is off course a statistical / empiric number for “enough” acts of attacking-blocking (more of these acts happens the number is closer to 75%, when its infinite ==> 75% is rounded). So 15 acts is very small sample and we could have a dissipation that is not close to this number (example: in the 1st series of 15 attacks you have 2 blocks in the 2nd you have 5 in the 3rd you have 4 ….10th you have 6 …. 26th you have 3 …). But if sum all these numbers of successful blocks and divide them with the number of acts will surely get a number that is close to 3.75.

Every attack-chance of blocking is an independent act and has no mathematical / physical connection between the previous attack-chance of blocking (or upcoming). Since this is a fact then we have a law from statistics – probability that says we have to take each acts probability and multiply it with the numbers of acts if we need to calculate total chance for a serie.

So if you attack an enemy 1,000,000 times with an average damage of 100 each time you hit him and he has a chance of blocking 75% then you will deliver damage of

Damage = 1,000,000 [attacks] x 100 [ avg dmg] x 0.75 [chance of blocking]
Damage = 75,000,000 (here we have 750,000 successful hits)

But each act of attacking – chance of blocking is NOT finished here if you want to calculate how much damage did you really deliver to him since when you pass his shield the game checks yours chance of hitting from your attack rating and his defense rating.

Chance to Hit % = 100 x AR / (AR + DR) x 2 x Alvl / (Alvl + Dlvl)

AR = Attack Rating of the attacker
DR = Defense Rating of the defender
Alvl = Level of the attacker
Dlvl = Level of the defender

Let’s say you are attacking Baal in Hell with a defense rating DR = 2847 and your Attack rating is AR = 7500. You are Alvl = 86 and he is Dlvl = 99

Chance to Hit % = 100 x AR / (AR + DR) x 2 x Alvl / (Alvl + Dlvl)
Chance to Hit % = 100 x 7500 / (7500 + 2847) x 2 x 86 / (86 + 99)
Chance to Hit % = 100 x 7500 / 10347 x 2 x 86 / 185
Chance to Hit % = 67

Since 750,000 attacks will surely pass Baals shield (lets give him a shield) then the Total damage you’ll deliver

Total damage = 75,000,000 [damage] x 0.67 [chance to hit]
Total damage = 50,250,000 (but Baal has 50% physical reduction in Hell)
Total damage = 25,125,000

sorry for any spell mistakes. English is not my mother language :innocent:

[vdzele]

Damage = 1,000,000 [attacks] x 100 [avg dmg] x 0.25 [chance of blocking]
Damage = 25,000,000 (here we have 250,000 successful hits)

Total damage = 25,000,000 [damage] x 0.67 [chance to hit]
Total damage = 16,750,000 (but Baal has 50% physical reduction in Hell)
Total damage = 8,375,000

uuuppsss ... sorry ... thought one thing wrote another :bonk:

[BeatThe9ers]

I'm not trying to be a wise guy here...okay, I guess I am a little bit.

I think what has thrown everyone off here is that they are making the question much more complicated than the one that was asked.

I am pretty sure he is just asking "What is 75% of 15."

I am not sure if I should applaud this young mans desire to want to understand this or weep for the fact that he has access to a computer and the internet, can use both but does not know how percentages work.

This is going to sound totally a-holish of me, but I am honestly curious. DragonKnight_Aka, would you please tell me how old you are?

[vdzele]

I'm not trying to be a wise guy here...okay, I guess I am a little bit.

I am on these forums more than 2 years from now, and I really did not notice or read a post were someone is showing-off with his brains here (though many posts with build or equipment show-offs), especially here on this statistics forums. Here we talk about numbers and facts. Not much too show-off here. It's plain and simple. Much mathematic / statistic / logic and “research digging” here, which is quit sterile and unknown area too many “young-guns”. Everyone that posted here in this thread was just trying to help in the best way he can, someone better some less successful. It’s not our fault that a young member comes here and asks a question which is not that simple and gets a list of numbers, equations and logic game rules. I can never tell if a member has 11 or 31 years, not from his sentences (I have a language handicap) username or from his avatar.

For me he is just a member who asked a question and he needs help / explanation. Most of the answers that were given in this forum were strait, truthful and with no emotions to no one. Personally I could never guess or know who is sitting and writing on the “other-side”. Answering to his question in a simple way: What is 75% of 15 = 15 x 75 / 100 = 11.25 is IMO wrong. If you noticed that he is young (I didn’t) then you need to type him some words of explanations what’s the meaning of percentage. Secondly, here we have a serie of attacks (not one) that have to be explained and their relation between. Thirdly, we need to take chance of hitting equation in to consideration for a truthful answer. Truth above all.

He can always find a help from his older friend / brother / father to explain him what we have just wrote here. I will gladly simplify my explanations in words / numbers if he asks me. :howdy:

[krischan]

I'm not trying to be a wise guy here...okay, I guess I am a little bit.

I think what has thrown everyone off here is that they are making the question much more complicated than the one that was asked.

I am pretty sure he is just asking "What is 75% of 15."

Which I answered with the first sentence of my first posting :lol: :

An average number of 15 * percentage/100 = 3.75 times will not get blocked, but these attacks still have to overcome the defense rating, of course.
However, that's not the complete answer. I'm under the impression that the question implied that there is no difference between the average and an actual result. It's important how far away from that average value your real results typically are (called standard deviation), for example, or that not just blocking has to be overcome.

I admit that I sometimes show off a little with mathematics or well-meant advice, but I'm trying not to be haughty or arrogant with that and keep everything as simple as possible, but as complete as necessary IMO.

[BeatThe9ers]

Hmm, I was pretty sure that I shouldn't have posted that as soon as I did. I am afraid that my intention/true meaning is hidden by my inability to express myself very weel through print. So let me throw this out there:

I did not intend to make it sound like anyone was showing off. I enjoy all the math-head stuff you can find on this forum. It is , to coin a phrase, a good thing. I was also not trying to rip on anyone for being unfamiliar with percentages or anything else. If my comments were insulting, and I can see how they could be taken that way, I apologize.

I guess I am just trying to get a better understanding of young people and what they are doing. My wife just had a baby boy and I feel a bit out of touch. I see this game as targeting teens and up but I guess I can understand that it may appeal to those that are younger, for at least a little while. I also have the impression that kids learn percentages in school by the 4th grade, or about 9 years old. I could be totally off base about that.

Things just weren't matching up for me as I assume that if you are old enough to enjoy this game you should have learned percentages. Obviously I am wrong on one or both fronts. I am just trying to figure out which. Maybe there art two basic questions I could ask.

1) How young are the young people that play this game? I thought it was about 12 or 13. Are their 8 year olds out there?

2) When do public schools in America start teaching percentages?

Again, I am sorry if I offended with my original note. Reading it again it does sound like it was written by a jerk, which I don't think I usually am.

[ToThePoint]

I go with krischans 1st answer.
If a person has to ask a question like this then they just care about averages.
Quite frankly thats what matters in the long run (approaching infinity and all that) anyway.

[vdzele]

1) How young are the young people that play this game? I thought it was about 12 or 13. Are their 8 year olds out there?

Again, I am sorry if I offended with my original note. Reading it again it does sound like it was written by a jerk, which I don't think I usually am.

Well if you watch and play the game just slightly … as a fast thrill and an instant enjoyment then the game seems simple and could find users in the age of 8-12. But if you scratch the surface and you want to improve yourself in some aspects of the game then there is strategy / calculations / balancing / patience / digging / trading… all those things that this game makes more interesting and joy able. Since there are huge combinations of various builds / improvements you can find users: age is no limit. I played for a while on Europe realm with a woman from Holland (mother of two boys btw) and she was 56! And she was a very good player and she did know some things about this game that I did not know.

I can speak for my self your post did not offend me in any way. No need to apologize … their were no hard words written here. Though posts in this statistic forum do sound careless for the youngsters. Don’t know what could help … say your age so I can describe it to you in a much appropriate manner? Yes allots of posts do not help them at all … don’t know?

In anyway no hard feelings :howdy:

[Awaiting-Death]

3/(4^15) is not the same as (3/4)^15. In this case, (3/4)^15 is the correct expression to use, and it evaluates very closely to 1/75, as krischan said.

yea, u'r right, i don't know what i was thinking there.

BUT the actual answer is in my original post::::::::
Most of the time: You will hit 4 times
I'm pretty sure that's what he is asking.

And for Beatthe9ers, i'm 21, 3rd year computer science student.

I've taken about 7 or 8 university level (college for u americans) math courses, including Calculus-based Statistics and Probability.

[Pier]

Uhm,

just a brain-storm, BUT

Since zeal is very fast, doesn't block animation/time play a role somewhere???

Grr pIER

[thamuzdevil]

im pretty certain it does... So throw in yet ANOTHER variable (block speed in fpa) and ANOTHER variable (attack speed in fpa) and youve just got a mess up in here :\

and i must say, I LOVE MY KICKSIN... 7/2/2/2/2/2 :D

[vdzele]

Uhm,

just a brain-storm, BUT

Since zeal is very fast, doesn't block animation/time play a role somewhere???

Grr pIER

I think the animation/time has no influence in calculating total / real damage. Many times I heard a block from my shield but no animation or saw my Amazon not damaged since the game calculated here evade / avoid chance

[DragonKnight_Aka]

u attack 15 times

75% of the attacks u will block ( this verious with ar and def if using zeal )
11.25

25% u will hit the person ( again matters on ar and def if using zeal or fury something like that )
3.75
so 11.25 + 3.75 = 15

this works if u did 20
75% of the attacks u will block = 15
25% u will hit the person = 5
15 + 5 = 20

I think I get the point that works for a bow zon cuz guided arrow ignores def
but if u was using a zeal pally then their no real answer to this cuz it all matters on ar and def