Let's talk about probability [Archive] - Diablo 3 & Diablo 2 Forums

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Cerebron

29-01-2004, 22:16

Peacrusher

29-01-2004, 22:40

Well to be honest.... I've found 2 ists (though not exactly sure if it was my kill or another persons) and I've found a couple of ums (from hell helforge) Nothing higher...

I get excited still when I find the occasional shael or sol or dol... Puls seem to be easy to comeby for me... don't know why...

Again with probability...

After several dozen pit runs I've only found 2 uniques... although elite normal gear drop often... Never found a set item from pit either... and blues are average...

shall we call blizzard's calculations "fuzzy math"?

*edit... Time it took to find those runes...Ists... 1 year playing w/o finding one... did find the other runes after my first ist... course my mf was over 590 at the time... MF isn't supposed to affect rune drops though.

Mad Mantis

29-01-2004, 23:51

I read my Thermodynamics textbook today.

The book says, there exists a probability that you can walk into a wall without getting hit and ending up on the side. It happens because the atomic motion of each individual atom just happens to be in the exact position to let the every atom in your body to pass through without repulsion. This is not science fiction. This is quantum mechanics.

The next paragraph says there ALSO exists a probability that the situation described above may (and very likely) never happen until the Universe ends. Darn.

There also exists a possibility that all the oxygen molecules in your room are found in the left corner. Again this may not happen before the universe dies. If you think this kind of stuff is weird, did you know that besides viewing yourself as a particle, you are also a wave and thus able to travel through walls?

Let's talk about MF now. Oh, what a leap. I'm not the person who should complain about not finding good runes and being pissed. I didn't even TRY to be lucky. I'm just curious about the "inexact math" that Blizzard invented. What's the best/rarest rune you've found so far and how long does it take you?

They are probably using an asymptotic relation in the rune drops. Accounting for massive numbers of El and very few Zod.

redball77

30-01-2004, 00:06

The best rune I found was just the other day... a Gul. It is by far the best rune me or my friends have found. My friend plays about 5 times more than me (I play about 6-8 hours a week) and he has never found a Gul, I think the highest he has found is a few Um, Lem, Pul, those kind of things. Perhaps a Mal, if I remember right.

The fact of the matter is... Ist runes or higher are VERY hard to find. You need to be very lucky. Your best chance is to get a group of friends together and rush characters to NM and Hell all day to get Hellforge drops. If you are good, you can get quite a few drops over the course of a day in this manner, although it wouldn't be much fun.

Vizier

30-01-2004, 00:23

>The next paragraph says there ALSO exists a probability that the situation described above may (and very likely) never happen until the Universe ends. Darn.

Yes, but just think what would happen if you were leaning on a wall and and an inch of your body melted into the wall but just then, the atoms got out of sync again...

>What's the best/rarest rune you've found so far and how long does it take you?[/QUOTE]

After four solid years of playing (O my, I hate to think of the many thousands of hours wasted like that!) The best I've done is a vex, 3guls, 2 mal, 3 um, all found within the last year or so. Oh, maybe you're talking 1.10 only? In that case, pul from hellforge, fal from the Pit, and one each of Io and everything below - all in about 2-300 hours of playing so far.

SeanDamnit

30-01-2004, 11:09

I started playing again about 2 months ago after a good year or so of off time. I found an Ist within my first dozen meph runs, and a shako and a skulders not too long afterwards.

Now I can't find ****. :(

Necrochild313

30-01-2004, 16:34

Lylanthwol

30-01-2004, 19:05

Best rune drop I've gotten is a Jah in 09, nothing nearly so high in 1.10 so far, just a bunch of Um runes.

It's the item drops that drive me crazy. Pit & Diablo runs yesterday yielded a blue corona, crappy yellow Balrog Skin, white CB, yellow shadow plate and last but not least a blue sacred. OUCH !

Mafia-CUD

30-01-2004, 21:45

I feel your pain Lylanthwol...

yesterday i got a Set Balrog ... bleh
and a Blue Shako w/ double durability... bleh bleh

I've gotten Um's and Puls from WS Keep and Hellforge.... thats all in 1.10

Killfrenzy

31-01-2004, 00:31

i found a vex back in 09 when it was worth squat

Megaman123

31-01-2004, 02:38

I made a mf pally and he basically had nothing but a wiz spike on. I then found chancies, 29% mf boots, goldwrap, a nagel, hoz, shako, lem and ko in the next ten runs and nothing since then.

aussy

31-01-2004, 02:54

We'll all walk through walls before we see a Zod drop. Yes, many have Zods, but that's because of the anomaly called "The duepehr effect".

is that in quantum physics too?

As far as the pits go, for me the pits live up to their name, pea.
My friend found a vex when we wer ein a cow game, and I saw it drop too. This was in like mid/slight begging of 1.09 when iths were just coming out. Of course he had 2x6 isted ith cbs, full inventory of 7 smfcs, and other perfect mf gear, but whta can I say.

Andrew

31-01-2004, 04:59

I found 2 gul's and a sur =D

psychotron

31-01-2004, 10:17

in .09 i managed 2 ists (one from cows and one from the countess :) ) 2 back to back um's from nm hellforge in hc (messed up killed my sorc so i had to re-rush her)
and in 1.10 over the span of 2 days i got a pul from hell hellforge, a tals ammy( yes not a rune, but good anyway) and a vex from the pit on ladder

those times don't come often, but when they do boy it feels good

Beatboxer

31-01-2004, 13:48

You know what all this tells me guys? Runes suck, (but I love em:) ) becasue you can't practically expect to count on finding the ones you need through playing an untwinked game.

To further compound it, blizzard has made it difficult to save good drops, and socketed this or that, (Muling nearly required) in order to trade for runes or effectively create proper runeworded items.

Eh, what can we do though...one group of progammers made the game and the patch job has probly been pasted down through several hands/minds since 99-00 when this game came out.

I still like Diablo2 but the lack of a common stash and rune scarcity create a small bit of a problem for a gamer who just wants to play straight through without much complications or fancy mulations.

But all this random drop stuff is exactly what makes Daiblo2 the addictive game that it is. There are lab tests to prove it.:)

OnT I really like finding shaels too, Necrochild. Lem and Pul highest drop from Helforge.

I am suspicious of any realm player using runewords and soj's. They are almost obviously dupes. I would of like this balanced a bit but Blizzard would rather us continue playing then make our game easier....So it goes right?

~Bb~

Mad Mantis

31-01-2004, 15:28

Because high level runes are hard to find, I like to concentrate on the lower level rune words when doing things untwinked. Most people ignore these, but they can be of great help.

Origin

31-01-2004, 19:34

that sounds weird considering that what makes you not fall through walls are energy fields rather than little solid dots
i think that thermodynamics book sounds fishy

GenXCub

31-01-2004, 19:47

That also means there's a slim chance that you can really mess up your floor in the bathroom if the poo decides to not hit the bowl... damn thermodynamics and quantum theory :)

Mad Mantis

31-01-2004, 20:36

that sounds weird considering that what makes you not fall through walls are energy fields rather than little solid dots
i think that thermodynamics book sounds fishy

There are a lot of things that make you not fall through walls. But if the Atoms in the wall were all in the correct phase you could fall through it, one atom at a time. It wouldn't be like opening a door and walking through that.

Necrochild313

31-01-2004, 20:43

My friend found a vex when we wer ein a cow game, and I saw it drop too. This was in like mid/slight begging of 1.09 when iths were just coming out. Of course he had 2x6 isted ith cbs, full inventory of 7 smfcs, and other perfect mf gear, but whta can I say.

I found a Lo in a cow game back in 1.09.

Of course then Los weren't worth a **** because they weren't in any runewords and they had just some use socketed :p.

I ended up just wasting the damn rune in a blackhorns for an "immune to lightning" type feel with blackhorns and tgods (and maxed lightning resists), I feel stupid for it now, but it helped in a dclone battle of mine. ;)

Lithan

31-01-2004, 21:03

As to the comment that started this... no, that cannot happen. Molecular bonds and all. For that to be possible, both you and the wall would have to disintegrate Ie, be reduced to base atoms (some of which might be naturally instable. Im not fully read up on those matters.) I don't believe this is something that happens.

Another matter would be passing through eachother as molecules. Again, this won't ever happen. However, two materials CAN accomplish this. Just not human beings and walls... for obvious reasons.

Anyhow. Good runes are ungodly rare. I find uniques fairly commonly. Only one or two worth even keeping though. The rest get dropped or sold to merchants. Best rune I've found so far was an IO maybe? I know I have all of the +10 stat set, excluding Dex.

GenXCub

31-01-2004, 21:24

Lo's were fairly valuable in 1.09 to Werebears and Paladins. It was THE thing to socket in a 3 socket CMSoQ (LoLoEth)

Necrochild313

31-01-2004, 21:32

well oops. Noone I found really wanted it. :embarrass

I hate druids and pallys so I guess I couldn't have known :xx:

(The spirit auras and the auras of the pallys are useful in a party don't get me wrong, I just hated playing as them, or reading about them ect.)

Havoc One

01-02-2004, 06:05

Let's talk about MF now. Oh, what a leap. I'm not the person who should complain about not finding good runes and being pissed. I didn't even TRY to be lucky. I'm just curious about the "inexact math" that Blizzard invented. What's the best/rarest rune you've found so far and how long does it take you?

I've been playing MF Necros since the Expansion came out. Most of the necros I've played to about CLVL 90 with about 400% MF. I play on average 2 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Best runes I have found are:

1 ZOD, yes I actually had one drop for me!
1 GUL
4 MAL
LUM's, FAL's, UM's, PUL's, KO's, LEM's...

nuthin else as far as high runes... bummer huh????

chien

01-02-2004, 06:32

My best find is a LO and SUR in the pits :) but never find IST.. :xmad:

Omikron8

01-02-2004, 06:36

I read my Thermodynamics textbook today.

The book says, there exists a probability that you can walk into a wall without getting hit and ending up on the side. It happens because the atomic motion of each individual atom just happens to be in the exact position to let the every atom in your body to pass through without repulsion. This is not science fiction. This is quantum mechanics.

What you are talking about is "quantum mechanical penetration into a classically forbidden barrier". When i studied this last semester (3rd year honors chemistry), we treated it as a particle with some energy E that encounters a barrier with a potential energy greater than this particle. Classically (newtonian mechanics) this particle has a 100% chance of being reflected upon reaching the boundary of this barrier. Quantum mechanically, this particle has a finite chance of "penetrating the barrier". This penetration is inversely proportional to the mass of the particle. So if you think of yourself as this particle, you will not get that far into this barrier because your mass is astronomically large compared to the size of sub-atomic particles.
If this barrier has a finite distance, then the particle instead has a finite chance of "tunneling" through this barrier to the other side. If the wall you speak of was of infinite thickness, any particle or mass (person or whatever) with less energy (difficult to define energy on a macroscopic scale such as people and walls) than the wall would eventually be pushed back out the way it came after penetrating some distance (which as i stated is inversely proportional to mass so big things won't get far). Sorry about the scientific rambling but i couldn't help myself :)

Singollo

01-02-2004, 06:43

i have been playing for a long time too and in all the time of playing i have found

best in ladder was a jah from the ancient tunnels

rest of the good 1s i have found were b4 1.10
1 ber
1 ohm
2 ist
1 gul
1 vex

many ums and lower, the vex was foun off pindle on 1 of the 1000s of runs i did, the rest were from cow lvl with mf nova/fo sorc. took many 1000s of runs

but for now ima wait for my monitor to fall through the desk :spy:

mooffy

01-02-2004, 06:53

What you are talking about is "quantum mechanical penetration into a classically forbidden barrier". When i studied this last semester (3rd year honors chemistry), we treated it as a particle with some energy E that encounters a barrier with a potential energy greater than this particle. Classically (newtonian mechanics) this particle has a 100% chance of being reflected upon reaching the boundary of this barrier. Quantum mechanically, this particle has a finite chance of "penetrating the barrier". This penetration is inversely proportional to the mass of the particle. So if you think of yourself as this particle, you will not get that far into this barrier because your mass is astronomically large compared to the size of sub-atomic particles.
If this barrier has a finite distance, then the particle instead has a finite chance of "tunneling" through this barrier to the other side. If the wall you speak of was of infinite thickness, any particle or mass (person or whatever) with less energy (difficult to define energy on a macroscopic scale such as people and walls) than the wall would eventually be pushed back out the way it came after penetrating some distance (which as i stated is inversely proportional to mass so big things won't get far). Sorry about the scientific rambling but i couldn't help myself :)

someone just tell me upfront yes or no if i can walk through walls or if i should stop trying. ITD BE SO COOL.

anyways, ive been running pits with 380-400 mf and i have found squat.

Angst

01-02-2004, 07:02

I found a vex the first week of 1.10 and promptly made a HOTO Flail :)

Mad Mantis

01-02-2004, 13:43

someone just tell me upfront yes or no if i can walk through walls or if i should stop trying.

Just stop trying. In fact make a video of you trying 60 times, send it to me and then stop trying.